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re: YNLVR wins the Stock Pick'Em Contest: 344% return!

Posted on 1/4/20 at 1:43 pm to
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 1/4/20 at 1:43 pm to
quote:

should set this up on an established platform
Are you volunteering to do it?
Posted by arkiebrian
NWA
Member since Nov 2006
4167 posts
Posted on 1/5/20 at 1:00 pm to
My 5:
CHK
VKTX
DIS
MSFT
WMT
Posted by readysetgeaux
Member since Jun 2012
203 posts
Posted on 1/5/20 at 1:18 pm to

1. AAPL
2. V
3. BMY
4. KTOS
5. TDOC
Posted by TheIndulger
Member since Sep 2011
19239 posts
Posted on 1/5/20 at 1:36 pm to
1. TGT
2. SBUX
3. AAPL
4. CRC
5. FB
Posted by Lsutiger2424
Member since Dec 2016
989 posts
Posted on 1/5/20 at 2:03 pm to
1. BABA - Alibaba
2. MSFT - Microsoft
3. CRM - Salesforce
4. FB - Facebook
5. MU - Micron Technology
Posted by LSUTOM07
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2011
765 posts
Posted on 1/5/20 at 3:44 pm to
1. FB
2. HAL
3. DIS
4. NKE
5. LVS
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 1/6/20 at 10:21 am to
quote:

LSUtoOmaha
I assume registration is now closed, right?
Posted by LSUtoOmaha
Nashville
Member since Apr 2004
26578 posts
Posted on 1/6/20 at 12:41 pm to
Yes sir
Posted by LSUtoOmaha
Nashville
Member since Apr 2004
26578 posts
Posted on 1/6/20 at 12:58 pm to
FYI I'm middway through page 3 on inserting these tickers into Morningstar. Taking a bit longer than I expected
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 1/6/20 at 1:50 pm to
quote:

FYI I'm middway through page 3 on inserting these tickers into Morningstar. Taking a bit longer than I expected
I know. It's the worst part of being the coordinator of Pick 'em.

The good news is after you spend a lot of time setting everything up, the YTD performance updating doesn't take nearly as much time. Until there's a merger....

By my count we have 71 players (only counting the posters who finished the sign-up process by listing their 5 stock picks by last night's deadline) and 177 companies picked. I don't guarantee those numbers are accurate but it should be a decent proof check against what you come up with. If you come up with different numbers we can compare notes....
This post was edited on 1/6/20 at 4:22 pm
Posted by LSUtoOmaha
Nashville
Member since Apr 2004
26578 posts
Posted on 1/6/20 at 4:54 pm to
Thanks, I appreciate it.
Posted by LSUcam7
FL
Member since Sep 2016
7903 posts
Posted on 1/6/20 at 10:57 pm to
quote:

Until there's a merger....


An alternative to the merger stuff is to lock in performance based on the settled price per share on corporate action date. Is that quick and easy to pull up?
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 1/7/20 at 8:51 am to
That's certainly one way to do it.

Compare your idea to how I handled it last year:
1) I "locked in" the YTD performance of the original stock pick as of the merger completion date.

2) I used that same date to establish the beginning share price of the surviving company.

3) Each update all I had to do was manually enter the current price of the surviving company and any dividends paid as of the date of the update.

4) My spreadsheet then added the original company's YTD % to the surviving company's performance % since the merger completion date giving a combined YTD performance percent.

I realize my way loses any benefit of a difference in the number of shares of the surviving company the shareholder gets or any possible cash consideration which would give a more accurate weighted average return but looking up that much detail for each merger wasn't worth the time, imo.

In 2019 we had 5 companies that got bought all of them in the second half of the year. So each update I manually entered the surviving company's current stock price + any dividends paid which wasn't too much extra time involved.
Posted by LSUcam7
FL
Member since Sep 2016
7903 posts
Posted on 1/7/20 at 10:54 am to
Just thought it may be easier. If so, it sets up a return that is more accurate being that it was the original pick, and maybe for purposes of rolling the dice on an expected buyout.

With that said... big tobacco can feel free to swoop in and takeover my Cannabis pick with hostility.
Posted by LSUtoOmaha
Nashville
Member since Apr 2004
26578 posts
Posted on 1/8/20 at 12:08 pm to
I have 71 players and 168 companies so I'm going back through to see what was missed.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 1/8/20 at 1:15 pm to
If it helps, below are the stocks I have (in alphabetical order) along with the number of posters picking that stock shown to the right of each symbol:

1 AAPL 15
2 AAXN 1
3 ABBV 2
4 ACB 1
5 ACN 1
6 ADBE 1
7 ADSK 1
8 ADT 1
9 AGEN 1
10 AIMT 1
11 AMD 8
12 AMRN 3
13 AMT 1
14 AMZN 17
15 APPN 1
16 APPS 1
17 ATO 1
18 ATRS 1
19 AUPH 7
20 AXGN 1
21 AXSM 1
22 AYX 2
23 BA 10
24 BABA 6
25 BAC 2
26 BCSF 1
27 BF.B 1
28 BIDU 1
29 BMY 2
30 BOH 1
31 BP 1
32 BUD 1
33 BX 1
34 C 1
35 CCL 1
36 CDW 1
37 CGC 5
38 CHK 1
39 CHWY 1
40 CIM 1
41 CLDR 3
42 CMG 1
43 CRC 1
44 CRM 3
45 CRSP 1
46 CRWD 2
47 CSCO 1
48 DBI 1
49 DBX 3
50 DDOG 5
51 DELL 1
52 DG 1
53 DIS 13
54 DOCU 3
55 DOW 1
56 ECA 1
57 EDIT 1
58 EPZM 1
59 EQIX 1
60 ETM 1
61 EVBG 1
62 EXAS 1
63 EXPI 1
64 F 2
65 FANG 1
66 FB 8
67 FIVE 1
68 GE 6
69 GFI 1
70 GH 1
71 GOOG 3
72 GOOGL 1
73 GSX 1
74 HAL 1
75 HD 1
76 HLIT 1
77 HP 2
78 HUBS 1
79 HXL 1
80 IDXX 1
81 IIPR 1
82 ISRG 1
83 J 1
84 JNJ 1
85 JPM 3
86 KTOS 1
87 LITE 1
88 LK 1
89 LRCX 3
90 LULU 1
91 LVS 1
92 LYFT 2
93 MA 2
94 MCD 1
95 MDB 1
96 MDT 2
97 MED 1
98 MELI 1
99 MIDD 1
100 MMM 1
101 MRK 1
102 MRVL 1
103 MSFT 11
104 MU 3
105 NAVI 1
106 NEE 1
107 NFLX 1
108 NIO 4
109 NKE 2
110 NOK 1
111 NOW 1
112 NTAP 1
113 NVDA 2
114 NWL 1
115 OKTA 1
116 OPK 1
117 OXY 3
118 PANW 1
119 PFSI 1
120 PLNT 1
121 PTON 1
122 PXD 1
123 PYPL 1
124 QCOM 1
125 QSR 1
126 RC 1
127 REAL 1
128 ROKU 3
129 RTN 1
130 RVLV 2
131 SAVE 1
132 SBUX 1
133 SDC 1
134 SE 1
135 SHG 1
136 SHOP 1
137 SLB 2
138 SNP 1
139 SO 1
140 SPLK 2
141 SQ 4
142 SRNE 1
143 STM 1
144 STOR 1
145 SWKS 1
146 T 3
147 TDOC 3
148 TGT 3
149 TREE 1
150 TSLA 5
151 TSM 2
152 TTD 1
153 TWLO 3
154 TWTR 1
155 UBER 3
156 UIS 1
157 UNH 1
158 V 7
159 VIAC 1
160 VKTX 1
161 VLO 1
162 VRTX 1
163 VZ 1
164 WBA 1
165 WK 1
166 WM 1
167 WMT 8
168 WORK 2
169 WTR 1
170 X 1
171 XOM 7
172 YETI 1
173 YUMC 1
174 ZM 2
175 ZNGA 1
176 ZS 1
177 ZYME 1
Posted by leoj
Member since Nov 2010
3106 posts
Posted on 1/8/20 at 5:49 pm to
Pretty good breadth of picks this year, only 5 with double digit pickers. Should be really interesting.
Posted by LSUtoOmaha
Nashville
Member since Apr 2004
26578 posts
Posted on 1/10/20 at 11:19 am to
lsutoomaha yeti -8.45 wm 1.9 mdt 4.35 nvda 3.28 twtr 3.65 0.946
timeoutdoors zm 6.73 twlo 15 appn 12.25 okta 11.4 hubs 11.85 11.446
ynlvr ddog 6.43 sdc 12.41 pton -1.87 pxd 0.57 nio -13.93 0.722

Someone want to spot check these?
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 1/10/20 at 12:53 pm to
Here is what I got for those 3 players:

#56 LSUtoOmaha 0.95%
YETI -8.45% WM 1.90% MDT 4.35% NVDA 3.28% TWTR 3.65%

#1 TimeOutdoors 11.45%
ZM 6.73% TWLO 15.00% APPN 12.25% OKTA 11.40% HUBS 11.85%

#57 ynlvr 0.72%
DDOG 6.43% SDC 12.41% PTON -1.87% PXD 0.57% NIO -13.93%

Our numbers agree.


Here are my Top 10 players with their YTD % through close of trading yesterday:

#1 TimeOutdoors 11.45%
ZM 6.73% TWLO 15.00% APPN 12.25% OKTA 11.40% HUBS 11.85%

#2 taeemwar 8.91%
AMZN 2.88% TSLA 15.06% NOW 6.02% UBER 14.22% FB 6.36%

#3 oatmeal 7.34%
ROKU -0.08% AMD 6.78% EXAS 11.97% UBER 14.22% PANW 3.81%

#4 Zilla 6.86%
ZS 16.13% DOCU 2.28% AMD 6.78% MA 3.65% AAPL 5.44%

#5 Drew Orleans 6.77%
AMD 6.78% AUPH 0.69% GE 6.72% AAPL 5.44% UBER 14.22%

#6 ItNeverRains 6.41%
DIS 0.14% TWLO 15.00% SQ 8.58% AMZN 2.88% AAPL 5.44%

#7 WPBTiger 6.39%
SHOP 8.20% TDOC 1.97% SQ 8.58% TTD 10.34% AMZN 2.88%

#8 nolaks 6.25%
SHG -4.57% DDOG 6.43% TWLO 15.00% RVLV 8.93% AAPL 5.44%

#9 redstickrun 6.19%
AAPL 5.44% AAXN -4.22% LK 12.73% TSLA 15.06% TSM 1.94%

#10 Lsutiger2424 6.14%
BABA 4.56% MSFT 2.78% CRM 10.43% FB 6.36% MU 6.56%

If you got the same order and overall numbers I'd say you're good to go! Thanks for taking over the updates.

One suggestion, you might want to post everyone's picks for us to proofread just to make sure you have everyone's 5 stocks correct.
Posted by oatmeal
NOLA
Member since Apr 2014
506 posts
Posted on 1/10/20 at 3:44 pm to
@ #3 i should quit now.
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