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Message
re: Why is crypto crashing?
Posted on 5/25/22 at 8:32 am to AMS
Posted on 5/25/22 at 8:32 am to AMS
quote:
I think some stakers will have their eth locked up unable to sell and when unlocked many will sell. if the merge fails then it will be a disaster for the eth ecosystem.
PoS/Pow .. Not really gonna argue that because they both have merits/pitfalls.
What the merge means for ETH and the broader market....I disagree, for a few reasons.
1) Those that took on the risk of locking up such a volatile asset for an undefined amount of time are true believers and HODLERS anyway and a massive sell-off is unlikely. I'm a believer in Ethereum and its future, but I did not lock anything up - I use rocketpool (stETH) so I can get my funds back. You gotta be some kinda maxi to lock up your money for potentially years with unknown market conditions and the potential for the Ethereum team to fail.
2) Stakers will not be able to unstake right after the merge. The merge will happen, and 6-12m later unstaking will be available.
3) Even once people can unstake their ETH, it will be staggered over 3-6m, not one massive unlock. There will be some sell-offs, but not enough to cause massive dips.
The way I see it, there are 4 scenarios that could play out:
Massive bull case - Not likely
The market has not priced in The Merge, the masses do not understand the significance of the merge nor how much Ether will be burnt post-merge. ETH will provide a 15% return for staking post-merge! Merge hits and ETH goes to 10K within a year, igniting a new bull market
Bull case - More likely (most likely imo)
The market has somewhat priced in The Merge, but because of uncertainty when it will actually occur and just how much Ether will be burned post-merge, it's not fully priced in. Staking Ether provides 8-10% APR for staking. If the merge is pulled off without a hitch, Ether appreciates in value, maybe igniting a small bull run. If the macro environment is favorable, there is potential for another bull run, but seems unlikely given what's going on the U.S. and the world right now.
Bear case - More likely
The merge is mostly priced in, people understand Ether will be burnt more frequently post-merge, but it won't be as substantial as claimed. Staking APR will remain 4-6%, not lucrative enough to keep most stakers around, so as unstaking is unlocked, people will dump ETH, ETH price will drop, it'll hurt the whole market
Super bear case - Not likely
The merge is priced in, Ethereum is a bullshite chain with bad tokenomics. It won't be deflationary, staking APR will be terrible. The merge doesn't go well, Ethereum as we know it falls apart. Cascading effects causes the bottom to fall out of the bear market, sending crypto into a full-blown crypto winter.
This post was edited on 5/25/22 at 8:35 am
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Posted on 5/25/22 at 9:50 am to JayDeerTay84
quote:
The top 2 crypto chains clearly have value. There is about 1 trillion in value in those alone and they are used every day by millions of people.
The top 2 do have some value. I agree
It’s a question of how much value just as it is with the USD, the yen, or any other currencies.
The market volatility of even the top crypto currencies is telling. To the degree that something has value is the degree to which there will be volatility. market is speaking.
It’s best to listen
This post was edited on 5/26/22 at 1:09 pm
Posted on 5/25/22 at 10:37 am to SlidellCajun
You are making it far more difficult than it needs to be. As adoption continues to increase, volatility will continue decrease.
Further, you are still hung up on one aspect, payment. Crypto operates in multiple spheres at the same time where as fiat is singular.
Further, you are still hung up on one aspect, payment. Crypto operates in multiple spheres at the same time where as fiat is singular.
Posted on 5/25/22 at 10:52 am to JayDeerTay84
quote:
Further, you are still hung up on one aspect, payment.
I focus on payment or the currency aspect of crypto because I am a business man and I accept payment for my services. I have had the discussions about accepting crypto currency (bitcoin specifically) as payment for my services. Looking at the volatility, I made a decision to not accept it as payment. Consider the implications of me accepting $100,000 (usd) worth of bitcoin today and then have its value drop 10% in a few hours. Pretty stupid.
There is a lot of risk doing business that way and for what? I don’t want to hire traders to get into arbitrage, hedging and other methods of dealing with that risk. Diminishing returns.
Why not just accept a stable currency like the USD so I can continue to pay my employees, taxes, and other overhead? Taking crypto would be very irresponsible. Might as well accept GameStop stock.
I’m not alone in my decision as I have had this talk with other business owners. Maybe some day it will make sense. Again, I’m not against the concept and certainly have my concerns about the USD but for now it’s the USD that is the coin I’ll accept.
So, I focus on it because it’s real. It’s every day businesses making decisions.
The question to me is why do you ignore the currency aspect of crypto currency?
It’s actually what it was intended for.
Posted on 5/25/22 at 11:03 am to SlidellCajun
Jesus you are still going on with this. We get your point, you've said it about 27 times in this thread. You aren't convincing people and no one is convincing you. Let it go and check back in 10 years to see where things stand.
Posted on 5/25/22 at 12:23 pm to SlidellCajun
quote:
The question to me is why do you ignore the currency aspect of crypto currency?
Buying stuff at a store isn't the ONLY value behind crypto. It's just one of oodles of things it's used for. You just haven't dug in beyond Bitcoin and it's clear to every crypto holder. Here is an example of a token that quite a few of us are in. I'm sure you can see why this token is valuable even though no one is buying Teslas with it.
PulseX (PLSX) is the token for the main exchange on PulseChain. PulseX is one of the largest and most liquid DEXs and will be completely deflationary - no new tokens will ever be created. It has the best tokenomics of any exchange token in history. PulseX has a function that will take 21% of the DEX fees (0.07% of the total trading volume) then buy the token off the open market and burn it. For every $1 billion of volume on PulseX, $700k worth of PulseX will be bought and destroyed forever. With Uniswap's daily volume (around $2.1 billion), $1.5 million will be used to buy PulseX and burn it. EVERY SINGLE DAY.
This post was edited on 5/25/22 at 12:25 pm
Posted on 5/25/22 at 12:56 pm to tenderfoot tigah
quote:
PulseX (PLSX) is the token for the main exchange on PulseChain. PulseX is one of the largest and most liquid DEXs and will be completely deflationary - no new tokens will ever be created. It has the best tokenomics of any exchange token in history. PulseX has a function that will take 21% of the DEX fees (0.07% of the total trading volume) then buy the token off the open market and burn it. For every $1 billion of volume on PulseX, $700k worth of PulseX will be bought and destroyed forever. With Uniswap's daily volume (around $2.1 billion), $1.5 million will be used to buy PulseX and burn it. EVERY SINGLE DAY.
I have a silo full of rocks that cannot be reproduced and have an an unforgeable authentication mark. You can pay me $50 for a rock. Every time $1,000 is spent on these rocks I’ll throw one into the middle of the ocean where it will be impossible to retrieve. It’s deflationary!
Posted on 5/25/22 at 12:58 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:
Jesus you are still going on with this. We get your point, you've said it about 27 times in this thread. You aren't convincing people and no one is convincing you. Let it go and check back in 10 years to see where things stand.
It’s my thread.
Posted on 5/25/22 at 3:19 pm to tenderfoot tigah
Every time I see someone try to explain the non-currency use cases for crypto it usually winds up including the word "tokenomics." In essence, buy my crypto token because it will increase in value when I take fees from people buying/trading other crypto tokens on my crypto token exchange. By buying the token, you're basically making an investment in the exchange itself. All the financial "tokenomics" is just fluff designed to get people interested; it does nothing to increase the underlying value of the investment.
Now, depending on what you pay for the token and how many there are, you could be making an excellent investment if the exchange has high trading volumes over a long period of time. At the same time, you could also be horribly overpaying for what amounts to an equity stake in a website put together by a few software engineers for next to nothing. Either way, though, I don't see the need to involve a crypto currency token in the process. The exchange creators could just as easily set up a public c-corp, sell shares in the business from the get go, then do buy backs or issue dividends with the trading fee revenues. The only problem with the public market strategy: most people who buy stocks consider the risks and true value of the enterprise before investing.
Now, depending on what you pay for the token and how many there are, you could be making an excellent investment if the exchange has high trading volumes over a long period of time. At the same time, you could also be horribly overpaying for what amounts to an equity stake in a website put together by a few software engineers for next to nothing. Either way, though, I don't see the need to involve a crypto currency token in the process. The exchange creators could just as easily set up a public c-corp, sell shares in the business from the get go, then do buy backs or issue dividends with the trading fee revenues. The only problem with the public market strategy: most people who buy stocks consider the risks and true value of the enterprise before investing.
Posted on 5/25/22 at 10:30 pm to Jon Ham
quote:
I have a silo full of rocks that cannot be reproduced and have an an unforgeable authentication mark. You can pay me $50 for a rock. Every time $1,000 is spent on these rocks I’ll throw one into the middle of the ocean where it will be impossible to retrieve. It’s deflationary!
Unfortunately for your rock idea, billions won't be spent on it. The PulseX exchange will flow billions of dollars daily.
Let me break it down more simply for you stock guys. You buy NASDAQ stock. Every transaction on the NASDAQ has a .07% fee. That fee goes to share buybacks. That would create an extremely valuable stock. This is what's happening with PulseX.
I should have broken it down more simply the first time. It's my fault for assuming you understand crypto terms.
This post was edited on 5/25/22 at 10:39 pm
Posted on 5/26/22 at 7:24 am to tenderfoot tigah
Explain to me how a PulseX token is different from a non-reproducible rock with an unforgeable authentication mark.
This post was edited on 5/26/22 at 8:01 am
Posted on 5/26/22 at 8:46 am to Jon Ham
Crypto is a scam, hope it crashes to zero
Posted on 5/26/22 at 9:13 am to Jon Ham
In DeFi, POS tokens are used in replacement of physical miners. Staked tokens are locked in pools to verify transactions. Often called validators. This is the underlying use of tokens in addition to chain specifics and/or DAPP features.
Instead of someone in a bank verifying transactions or advanced systems verifying transactions (which add costs) the POS network allows users to participate by providing their tokeNs for liquidity and security.
In doing so, yield is earned.
I am not sure of a way for rocks to validate transactions. Open to learning about it though.
Instead of someone in a bank verifying transactions or advanced systems verifying transactions (which add costs) the POS network allows users to participate by providing their tokeNs for liquidity and security.
In doing so, yield is earned.
I am not sure of a way for rocks to validate transactions. Open to learning about it though.
This post was edited on 5/26/22 at 9:18 am
Posted on 5/26/22 at 9:26 am to Fox McCloud
quote:If you aren't invested in it, why do you hope it goes to zero?
Crypto is a scam, hope it crashes to zero
I'm not invested in Gold or Tesla, but I don't see a reason to hope it goes to zero.
Posted on 5/26/22 at 9:40 am to JayDeerTay84
quote:
In DeFi, POS tokens are used in replacement of physical miners. Staked tokens are locked in pools to verify transactions. Often called validators. This is the underlying use of tokens in addition to chain specifics and/or DAPP features.
Instead of someone in a bank verifying transactions or advanced systems verifying transactions (which add costs) the POS network allows users to participate by providing their tokeNs for liquidity and security.
In doing so, yield is earned.
I am not sure of a way for rocks to validate transactions. Open to learning about it though.
So it’s a financial transaction system that is more efficient than traditional financial transaction systems? That sounds like an advancement of technology not the creation of a new currency or store of value. The part about “if you buy in you will get a return when other people after you buy in” sounds a lot like a ponzi or multi level marketing scheme.
Posted on 5/26/22 at 10:29 am to Jon Ham
Don’t take my word for it. The cool thing about this tech and our age is you can read about it and it’s all open source.
Or you can continue to compare it to rocks. Up to you.
Or you can continue to compare it to rocks. Up to you.
Posted on 5/26/22 at 10:40 am to Jon Ham
quote:
So it’s a financial transaction system that is more efficient than traditional financial transaction systems? That sounds like an advancement of technology not the creation of a new currency or store of value
the thing that throws a lot of people off is a lot of crypto mixes the two things, it isn't really a 'one or the other' kind of thing.
quote:
The part about “if you buy in you will get a return when other people after you buy in”
it doesn't necessitate other people buy in after you to get a return, just that people are participating on/in the network.
similar to the the only reason the USD has value... because people participate in the network utilizing it.
both USD and crypto are able to be influenced by 'ponzi-like' buying into or selling out of it seeing as there is no intrinsic value to either, only the value others agree upon.
Posted on 5/26/22 at 10:44 am to AMS
Well stated. I mentioned before crypto operates in multiple financial spaces at once. Most people miss this or don’t understand.
A token can have many financial uses all on one chain. Can be used for validation, liquidity/swaps, security, voting, capital/loans, payment, etc. However, people tend to focus on “payment” and that is probably the least use in most cases.
A token can have many financial uses all on one chain. Can be used for validation, liquidity/swaps, security, voting, capital/loans, payment, etc. However, people tend to focus on “payment” and that is probably the least use in most cases.
This post was edited on 5/26/22 at 10:45 am
Posted on 5/26/22 at 10:50 am to Jon Ham
quote:People just have to accept the fact that this is how literally any financial investment works. You will not get any return in any asset class if people don't buy in after you to increase the price. Minor caveat is stocks paying a dividend. You get a tiny return there without anyone buying in after you (as long as the dividend continues). Real estate, precious metals, stocks (ex dividend), trading cards, art, collectable cars...literally any investment requires people to buy in after you in order for you to make a return.
The part about “if you buy in you will get a return when other people after you buy in” sounds a lot like a ponzi or multi level marketing scheme.
Posted on 5/26/22 at 11:15 am to Jon Ham
quote:
Explain to me how a PulseX token is different from a non-reproducible rock with an unforgeable authentication mark.
Rocks are heavier.
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