Why do credit scores change with no changes in history?

Have you applied for credit or a loan?

Score can be impacted just by credit inquiries (number of over a period of time).

Did your credit limits get increased?

More credit capacity can impact scores

And many more that I am sure experts on this board can enlighten you. These are examples from my experience.

Haven’t applied for credit or a loan.
Have had no credit inquiries for some time.
Have a credit card that I use to put gas charges on and pay it before the deadline, religiously.
Credit limits increased at the beginning of the year but never affected my credit score.

Most likely you are over or close to 30% of the credit limit at the time they report to the bureaus

Could be lack of balance showing. I've seen that. If you pay it off too quick, it's too low when the balances report, and it looks like you're not using it. It makes you scratch your head. Comes right back, though.

Certain Percentages of balances on Credit Cards can bust you up even if you pay on time.
For instance cycle ends , you already paid your bill leave a balance over 50% used I’ve been knocked down a 10 or more points .

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Did your credit limits get increased?

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Ummm. No.
It is a factor like "not enough revolving balance available".

You see "too much available credit" as a top5 reason for your score when the score is at 840 and none of the other factors apply.

My utilization stays under 10% and I still have 10-20 point jumps every month from utilization changes. That is the biggest factor. It's not just 30% overall, if I throw something on my store CC's with a lower limit and that single account hits 30% it will be a bigger drop than if I use my regular cash back cards that have normal limits on them and utilization is barely changed. It's normal, don't worry about it you can correct utilization in a month.

I admit i don’t fully understand what kind of dark sorcery they use to calculate those things.

Anyone know for sure if/how much medical debt counts?

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Could be lack of balance showing. I've seen that. If you pay it off too quick, it's too low when the balances report, and it looks like you're not using it. It makes you scratch your head. Comes right back, though

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This makes sense because I paid my credit card bill off when I normally don’t do it. I usually take care of it on the 9th of each month and did it on the 20th of the previous month. I paid it twice in one month which would have been the outcome of what you are saying.

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Anyone know for sure if/how much medical debt counts?

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Anything over $500 and behind counts. If you are paying and were never behind, even if it is $10 a month they shouldn't report it. If you pay it off even if you were behind it goes away unlike other debt. Anything under $500 paid or not starting in about 6 months won't matter either.

My only collections ever were medical debt and most dropped off with the rule changes this year but for some reason a small percentage of it under $500 is falling off mid 2023.

Medical debt is fricked up. I had collections on my credit from doctors that treated me in the hospital while I was still laid up in the hospital... yeah most people don't do a 5 month stay in the hospital in their thirties but it happens and to have you credit absolutely fricked because you were trying not to die in the hospital is fricked up.