re: Well looks like typical Sept market under way

Yeah, I don't know why I'm getting all the downvotes. It can't be stopped. If nothing else, that was proven last election.

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there's very likely a recession coming

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Seems this has been the matra for nearly 3 years now and still no recession. Eventually, it's going to happen....but I sure wish people would quit being all doom and gloom because "things seem to good to last". Just enjoy the ride of the last few years.

Nobody did anything nor will they in the future.

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Seems this has been the matra for nearly 3 years now

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There's a reason for that (at least for my stance, I can't speak to the reasons of others). The economy is like a pendulum which swings back and forth between boom and bust with the Fed tasked on keeping the swings from becoming too extreme. What we saw during COVID was a MASSIVE movement of that pendulum by the federal government with their dumping of trillions in cash directly into the pockets of consumers in just a handful of months while most businesses were being mandated to shut down temporarily. You suddenly had millions of people who were pretty much homebound but now had tons of excess liquidity to spend. Demand for delivery services suddenly jumped to unprecedented levels as consumers spent their money ordering things while not having to go into an office to work.

Why do recessions usually happen? Because too many consumers and businesses over-extend themselves to the point where they start failing to meet their financial obligations. They tighten their budgets to attempt to meet those obligations and because their budgets tighten, they cut back on spending (for businesses this can mean cutting back on staff). That cutback on spending means few enough goods and services are being sold that the businesses providing them end up cutting back on how many employees they have because they no longer have the need for that many. Those now-former employees then also must cut back on spending, creating a negative loop until the economy stabilizes.

The COVID excess liquidity and loss of excess supply (due to production being stymied) eventually caused inflation. For many workers on the lower end, government benefits and mandates (rent forbearance, extra COVID funds, etc) made staying home more financially attractive than going back to work once businesses were allowed to open back up again. Businesses then had to raise pay for these lower-end workers to lure them away from the federal tit and back into the job sector. When increasing the Minimum Wage, Inflation and Unemployment increases usually follow. That this was economically driven (sort of, because the lack of workers being available was actually due to government largess providing a more attractive alternative, not any organic creation from normal economic activity) instead of a federal mandate doesn't change it.

When those workers went back to work, they continued to live the level of consumerism they had enjoyed during COVID. Inflation outpaced wages so consumers began offloading the extra expenses onto their credit cards. As rates rose, so too did the carrying cost on those cards. As inflation continued to outpace wages, the amount consumers put on their cards increased (and, more importantly, the amount they carried over also added to their debt load as interest rates on cards got into the 20%+ range). When the rate of consumer debt growth outpaces GDP growth, it can be assumed much (if not all) of the GDP growth was due to debt creation. We've been at that point for over a year now (where GDP is growing primarily from accrued debt while the debt discharge level is dropping).

During all of this we also saw workers job-jumping in order to get more pay in an incredibly tight labor market so they could continue to fund their lifestyles while continuing to increase their debt. That extra labor cost helped keep inflation from being tamed and put further stresses on businesses as they had to raise prices in order to meet worker needs.

Since 2022 we've seen consumer debt delinquencies rise quickly and consistently. Granted, Q4 2021 was the historical low for delinquencies, but in just the 3.5 years since then we've seen the rate rise at a pace not seen since just before the GFD. The last time delinquency rates were this high was 2012. Not coincidentally, bankruptcy filings have risen since COVID as well (as with delinquencies, this increase follows historical lows though), but not as quickly as delinquencies (which, if the GFD pattern holds true, bankruptcy increases will lag behind delinquencies by a year or two).

As all of this is happening, Unemployment has been rising. New jobless claims have jerkily been trending up all year while continued claims have slowly but steadily been increasing since 2022. As long as UE and jobless claims are increasing, we can expect consumer delinquencies and then bankruptcies to increase as well. As those increase, consumers engage in less marginal spending which means businesses need to produce less, which means the need for fewer workers, which means to more consumers spending less, thus getting into the negative loop I mentioned above. All of this is the pendulum moving to the bust end from where the COVID responses distorted the normal sway by pushing too far into the boom. Once the economy re-stabilizes, that's when the pendulum starts moving back towards boom.

One of the best predictors of recessions is the inverted yield curve. Within 12 months of the curve reverting back to normal behavior, we go into a recession (reverting back to normal behavior means movement above the curve by at least .2 or so within a month while also not going back to 0 or below). Also, when rates have been pushed high and held there for an extended period of time, we usually go into a recession within 12-18 months of their first lowering. We're now at the point where the yield curve is bouncing around 0 and we're expecting a cut in rates this month.

Taking all of this into context, ever since COVID happened it's not been a matter of "if" but of "when" with the "when" being pushed back by consumer debt creation.

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I wish they’d open up the fema camp already.

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Looking like every Sept should be the month we have the camps open. Another week like the last one and the bears will be back in full force to preach their doom and gloom.

Everyone loves a sale except when it stocks. Like nvidia at 100 yes please