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Vanguard’s 10y median forecast for US stocks is 3.9% annually, .6% for large cap growth
Posted on 3/10/25 at 9:15 pm
Posted on 3/10/25 at 9:15 pm
This was the 12/31/24 expectations, so before markets turned south for the year in the last week. I hadn’t seen it mentioned though. A lot of unloved areas significantly outperforming large cap stocks and growth stocks in particular. Hell, cash is expected to outperform growth stocks.
LINK
Hope some of you are a lot more diversified than VUG if this materializes.
9
Posted on 3/10/25 at 9:18 pm to slackster
This would wreck me for retirement.
Posted on 3/10/25 at 9:21 pm to slackster
Slackster if you can not whine to the mods this time about ancient tiger we might get a white boy summer again before they impeach Trump and prez aoc sends us to the fema camp
Posted on 3/10/25 at 9:33 pm to slackster
Domestic small caps have become garbage. More quality companies stay private and when they actually do go public they are large caps.
If small caps outperform, then it’s because we are melting up.
If small caps outperform, then it’s because we are melting up.
Posted on 3/10/25 at 9:38 pm to slackster
Do you have any of their projections from ten years ago?
One thing to keep in mind is that the companies in the US stock market will seek profits. They will do that by getting into new markets, acquiring new business units, expanding into foreign markets, or investing in new technologies, or some other method.
No CEO not named Immelt is going to survive as CEO for a decade while producing only 0.6% price appreciation.
One thing to keep in mind is that the companies in the US stock market will seek profits. They will do that by getting into new markets, acquiring new business units, expanding into foreign markets, or investing in new technologies, or some other method.
No CEO not named Immelt is going to survive as CEO for a decade while producing only 0.6% price appreciation.
Posted on 3/10/25 at 9:45 pm to fallguy_1978
quote:
This would wreck me for retirement.
It would add years to mine. A lot of mine depends on my
PE investment. It’s probably about 40% of my investments now.
Posted on 3/10/25 at 9:46 pm to fallguy_1978
quote:
This would wreck me for retirement.
That’s on buy and hold projections. DCA and other strategies can perform better with a little luck.
Posted on 3/10/25 at 9:47 pm to CharlesUFarley
quote:
No CEO not named Immelt is going to survive as CEO for a decade while producing only 0.6% price appreciation.
We lost an entire decade of returns from 2000-2009. It’s certainly not impossible.
Posted on 3/10/25 at 9:55 pm to el Gaucho
quote:
Slackster if you can not whine to the mods this time about ancient tiger
Too late.
Posted on 3/10/25 at 9:56 pm to CharlesUFarley
quote:
Do you have any of their projections from ten years ago?
Not easily. I’ll see if I can find more. There were around 6% median coming into 2023 so it makes sense the back to back 20% returns would lower their expectations going forward.
Posted on 3/10/25 at 9:57 pm to CharlesUFarley
quote:
Do you have any of their projections from ten years ago?
They projected about 6% annualized for the 10 years going forward in September of 2014.
Actual was 11.1%
Posted on 3/10/25 at 10:00 pm to slackster
Btw the biggest bear signal came at the beginning of the year when poster I Love Bama predicted that we'd see 15% annualized returns (on the low end) the next 4-5 years.
That dude was a massive bear through a 3 year period that saw a cumulative 57% percent gain in the S&P500.
When he flipped to bull that was a good signal.
That dude was a massive bear through a 3 year period that saw a cumulative 57% percent gain in the S&P500.
When he flipped to bull that was a good signal.
This post was edited on 3/10/25 at 10:01 pm
Posted on 3/10/25 at 10:02 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
Actual was 11.1%
No clue what their percentile ranges were.
Like it or not, it’s quite unrealistic to expect 7% annualized returns when you’re coming into things at 21x forward earnings on S&P 500.
Posted on 3/10/25 at 10:07 pm to slackster
Posted on 3/10/25 at 10:09 pm to JohnnyKilroy
Thanks for finding it.
Posted on 3/10/25 at 10:15 pm to slackster
Not if the share of passive keeps growing which it should and credit spreads are tight with relatively low interest rates
Posted on 3/10/25 at 11:51 pm to slackster
quote:It makes sense. It's hard to envision bull markets STARTING at a 25 P/E.
Vanguard’s 10y median forecast for US stocks is 3.9% annually, .6% for large cap growth
I like to average these with GMO's also.
Posted on 3/11/25 at 1:10 am to slackster
quote:
We lost an entire decade of returns from 2000-2009. It’s certainly not impossible.
I think the lost decade refers to the S&P 500.
I was more into value, international, and small cap. It wasn't lost for me, though 2009 looked pretty dark for a while.
Posted on 3/11/25 at 5:38 am to wutangfinancial
quote:
Not if the share of passive keeps growing which it should and credit spreads are tight with relatively low interest rates
You’d think Vanguard of all places would understand the growth of passive investing, but I understand your point.
Posted on 3/11/25 at 5:56 am to slackster
Does that include dividends?
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