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Message
re: Uranium>Silver
Posted on 9/8/21 at 12:21 pm to notsince98
Posted on 9/8/21 at 12:21 pm to notsince98
quote:
Another thing that should help the uranium and other nuclear fuel markets is that real, authentic environmentalists are waking up to the facts that solar, wind, lithium and other modern "green" technologies are environmental disasters.
Even the IPCC realized that their hysteria has almost completely killed their credibility and is pulling back their extreme estimates albeit forecasting 100-300 years of temperature change is still unbelievably retarded. Nontheless you'll see a pivot to real solutions for risk mitigation as the reversal continues.
0
Posted on 9/8/21 at 12:47 pm to igoringa
quote:
Any good sites for actual physical production and demand (I know it is an opaque market)
Outstanding question. I would love to see that information and have not been able to find it.
I understand at present there are only a handful of companies capable of producing Uranium within the next 24 months. Some of them are small producers with a high price of production (who will require utilities to pay north of $60 per pound).
Cameco is the world's second largest producer but they have their mines on maintenance and will also only ramp up for production when utilities sign new multi-year contracts for consumption (also at prices significantly higher than the current spot market prices).
The consumers are all over the world. The United States have the most consumption but the Chinese are accelerating. If the Japanese also restarted their reactors (which have all been offline since Fukushima) then that would obviously add to the demand. If Merkel leaves power in Germany then they might also go back to using nuclear instead of coal.
There are a lot of variables in play. I don't fully understand the long term role of the Sprott SPUT consumption (after the spot price exceeds the cost of production). Certainly they can add to a squeeze but for the sake of their investors how do they monetize the long term value of the fund? I seem to have missed the explanation for at what points and how they will sell the fund's spot purchased Uranium.
Posted on 9/10/21 at 8:51 am to Tiger0527
I'm now balls deep in Uranium plays. Will add on pull backs.
SPUT/SRUUF is disrupting the market.
SPUT/SRUUF is disrupting the market.
Posted on 9/10/21 at 10:32 am to LSUregit
Posted on 9/10/21 at 11:04 am to LSUregit
Ho
Holy crap - that will get some attention fast.
quote:
1.3 Billion ATM
Holy crap - that will get some attention fast.
Posted on 9/10/21 at 11:31 am to igoringa
Like they say, invest in some nuclear bombs
Posted on 9/10/21 at 11:40 am to igoringa
I don't know how this big pressure is going to play out over the next months and years. At this point SPUT is sort of doing a logical thing.
They are buying an essential commodity with increasing demand at a cost 50% lower than the average cost of production (varies depending on the producer but usually around $60). Long term I can see how that's a good investment for them and probably for the market as a whole if it wakes up more people to the need to invest in exploration and development for a secure supply in coming decades.
But I don't know how this plays out if even a small portion of the reddit and meme investors pile in (and out) of the industry. In the last cycle (2007-2011) there were over 500 "Uranium" companies by the end of the cycle. Right now there are around 60 worldwide. That tells you there were a larger number of pretenders, optimists who couldn't deliver, or worse.
Right now I see some youtubers saying things like look for the tiny market cap companies and invest in them preferentially. That doesn't always make sense. Firstly we're actually already about a year into the start of something like a bull market (the time since a lot of companies in the field were at their lowest value but have tripled or more since). Yes, that's very early in a Uranium bull market since those have typically taken around 3 to 5 years to fully escalate before they lose value significantly. But I would much rather invest in a $300M or $500M market cap company that may produce within 5 years rather than a $20M market cap company which probably has no chance of completing exploration, permits, financing, etc before this Uranium cycle is over.
What's my point? We're early but SPUT is probably going to change things rapidly and perhaps unpredictably. A lot of companies may say that they will rise because the market must go up. But that's only true temporarily. There are probably also going to be some massive pullbacks in value when companies which have overpromised are exposed or just when the escalation in spot prices pushes the speculative paper value of many too high.
To really have a Paladin (06-11) return you have to have invested in a company that can actually produce significant Uranium and lock in a long term utility contract. Otherwise you might be investing in Uranium beanie babies stocks.
They are buying an essential commodity with increasing demand at a cost 50% lower than the average cost of production (varies depending on the producer but usually around $60). Long term I can see how that's a good investment for them and probably for the market as a whole if it wakes up more people to the need to invest in exploration and development for a secure supply in coming decades.
But I don't know how this plays out if even a small portion of the reddit and meme investors pile in (and out) of the industry. In the last cycle (2007-2011) there were over 500 "Uranium" companies by the end of the cycle. Right now there are around 60 worldwide. That tells you there were a larger number of pretenders, optimists who couldn't deliver, or worse.
Right now I see some youtubers saying things like look for the tiny market cap companies and invest in them preferentially. That doesn't always make sense. Firstly we're actually already about a year into the start of something like a bull market (the time since a lot of companies in the field were at their lowest value but have tripled or more since). Yes, that's very early in a Uranium bull market since those have typically taken around 3 to 5 years to fully escalate before they lose value significantly. But I would much rather invest in a $300M or $500M market cap company that may produce within 5 years rather than a $20M market cap company which probably has no chance of completing exploration, permits, financing, etc before this Uranium cycle is over.
What's my point? We're early but SPUT is probably going to change things rapidly and perhaps unpredictably. A lot of companies may say that they will rise because the market must go up. But that's only true temporarily. There are probably also going to be some massive pullbacks in value when companies which have overpromised are exposed or just when the escalation in spot prices pushes the speculative paper value of many too high.
To really have a Paladin (06-11) return you have to have invested in a company that can actually produce significant Uranium and lock in a long term utility contract. Otherwise you might be investing in Uranium beanie babies stocks.
Posted on 9/13/21 at 7:52 am to molsusports
Posted on 9/13/21 at 8:12 am to itsbigmikey
I agree.
That's a good read for people new to the investment options in Uranium. This is what bulls have been thinking since SPUT started to move up the spot Uranium price
That's a good read for people new to the investment options in Uranium. This is what bulls have been thinking since SPUT started to move up the spot Uranium price
Posted on 9/13/21 at 8:25 am to itsbigmikey
Thanks for the share! Exciting times are ahead of us in the uranium space. It will definitely get interesting.
A month ago I would have said that's extremely bullish, but maybe I wasn't bullish enough. I was thinking $40-$50 spot price by end of year. We almost for sure surpass $50 by end of year (maybe by end of week lol). I'm thinking $70$75 is likely now. The capital flows and volumes lately have been insane. I'm figuring this out as we go and will share any information I come across. We have a long runway.
A month ago I would have said that's extremely bullish, but maybe I wasn't bullish enough. I was thinking $40-$50 spot price by end of year. We almost for sure surpass $50 by end of year (maybe by end of week lol). I'm thinking $70$75 is likely now. The capital flows and volumes lately have been insane. I'm figuring this out as we go and will share any information I come across. We have a long runway.
Posted on 9/13/21 at 8:53 am to Jmart0527
Is SPUT the ticker? I cannot find it
This post was edited on 9/13/21 at 8:53 am
Posted on 9/13/21 at 8:55 am to jangalang
Look for OTC u.un
Posted on 9/13/21 at 8:58 am to molsusports
Oh my.
Posted on 9/13/21 at 9:05 am to jangalang
Everything worth talking about in the sector is up. Just be careful with FOMO and take some profits every now and then
Posted on 9/13/21 at 12:12 pm to molsusports
What is so intriguing to me about this play is not only the confluence of multiple events coming together. It is the fact that a sharp appreciation in price doesn't create the political hazard that sometimes comes with increased commodity costs given uranium is such a small part of the cost to produce electricity. Nat gas doubles and it hits the consumer square in the pocket book hard.... uranium doubles and the impact is much more muted. Just makes the run way that much longer.
Posted on 9/13/21 at 12:16 pm to molsusports
I have a free trade on right now but it's hard not to roll these into LEAPs. I'm waiting for a big pull when there's a broader market sell-off.
Posted on 9/13/21 at 3:46 pm to wutangfinancial
SPUT (u.un) up another 15% today.
A lot of money poured into URA and URNM in the last two trading sessions. Those funds in turn will mean additional increases in the U stocks they are in.
Last I saw the spot price was around $42.50 but the additional funds in Sprott will elevate that. I didn't think spot prices were going to move this fast but Holy shite. We might be looking at the real cost of average production before October ends
ETA: spot price is apparently up to $44.50 now. That increase is apparently from the 300 million that Sprott bought. The kicker to that is they are apparently about to offer another billion dollars in SPUT. If that happens within the week and it takes them 3-4 days to use that to buy more physical Uranium? The next leg up in spot price will be seen within two weeks.
Also, in the next day or two I have no idea what the smaller exploration and development companies will do. There have to be some people taking some profits off the table but there are also going to be some URA and URNM mandated buys from the new index investors coming into the sector
A lot of money poured into URA and URNM in the last two trading sessions. Those funds in turn will mean additional increases in the U stocks they are in.
Last I saw the spot price was around $42.50 but the additional funds in Sprott will elevate that. I didn't think spot prices were going to move this fast but Holy shite. We might be looking at the real cost of average production before October ends
ETA: spot price is apparently up to $44.50 now. That increase is apparently from the 300 million that Sprott bought. The kicker to that is they are apparently about to offer another billion dollars in SPUT. If that happens within the week and it takes them 3-4 days to use that to buy more physical Uranium? The next leg up in spot price will be seen within two weeks.
Also, in the next day or two I have no idea what the smaller exploration and development companies will do. There have to be some people taking some profits off the table but there are also going to be some URA and URNM mandated buys from the new index investors coming into the sector
This post was edited on 9/13/21 at 7:59 pm
Posted on 9/14/21 at 8:57 am to molsusports
So is this a good entry point? SPRUU is down 15% from it’s high. I dipped into URA this morning.
Posted on 9/14/21 at 9:00 am to go ta hell ole miss
Bought some UUUU and DNN after the opening drop. Small positions. Interested.
Posted on 9/14/21 at 9:14 am to go ta hell ole miss
quote:
So is this a good entry point?
To me it is. Added to a few positions today. I'm planning on nibbling on any dips until the thesis changes.
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