re: Uranium>Silver

Good news

The market seems to agree with you. Let's hope this is the beginning of the next leg up

I'm in uranium and have a tiny bit of SMR I've been adding to when it dips. It's been on a run recently and I'm not sure why, haven't seen any news.

Trying not to get too excited but the fundamentals just keep stacking up. It'll be interesting to see if we have follow-through and SPUT starts trading at a premium again.

I knew the Japanese news would start a move - had no idea it would be like today...

And now that the Sput has moved into a premium, and there has to be a flywheel with the ETFs (assuming inflows today) .... this could be the start of a major move (and I have called 9 of the last 2 lol)

I think $SMR has a lot of potential. That said, I also think it's going to be more of a late 2020's early 2030's story. I'm going to post an excerpt from a Doomberg article that I read that I found inciteful (I highly suggest paying for access to their substack articles btw):

quote:

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The bullish case is straightforward enough. The company represents a rare pure play on an obvious solution to the challenge of decarbonization, claims to have sufficient funding on hand to achieve the self-sustaining milestone of cash-flow breakeven by 2024, has excellent relationships with and understanding of the US regulatory agencies, and has the perfect stock symbol for its mission (it trades under the ticker “SMR”). Lest you consider the last advantage to be a minor one, we can assure you that Cheniere Energy is thrilled to trade under the ticker “LNG” amidst the current global natural gas crisis. If SMR technology comes to dominate the future of our electricity production, that listing will be a valuable asset. Further, if nuclear becomes “acceptably green” for ESG-oriented passive investment vehicles, NuScale’s stock could benefit substantially.

In our view, the bear case has three components: the manner in which NuScale became publicly traded, its current valuation, and the substantial execution risk embedded in its business plan. NuScale went public through a reverse merger with a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC), a deal that closed in early May. As part of the deal, the company raised $235 million from a private investment in public equity (PIPE) transaction that funded at close. When the PIPE shares become registered and the investors holding them are free to trade, that $235 million slug of stock will be hard for the market to absorb. For context, the stock currently trades only about $10 million worth of notional value each day.

As a result of the SPAC transaction, the company has a large number of in-the-money warrants outstanding as well as other classes of stockholders, making the calculation of its effective market cap somewhat challenging. To clear up these issues, the company’s Chief Financial Officer indicated on its most recent earnings call that the fully diluted share count stands at 257.2 million. Given where NuScale trades today, that puts its market cap at over $3 billion, a frothy number for what amounts to a pre-revenue technology play. Finally, the execution risk seems high to us. The recently approved design took six years to get through the NRC, and it isn’t even the one the company intends to market. In the presentation deck shown to investors when the SPAC transaction was announced, management projected that its GAAP revenue would grow from $16 million in 2022 to over $5 billion by 2030. On a “cash revenue” basis – a non-GAAP metric the company uses to account for the unique accrual accounting applied to its sales – management promised $13 billion in 2030. Given the glacial nature of the nuclear power industry, achieving that growth will be a substantial challenge.

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Agreed. I think if the snowball starts rolling and SPUT consistently trades at a premium we could really get the flywheel going. Even with the weak market conditions U stocks have been performing very well.

All we need is some big money to flow into SPUT and we could see fireworks IMO. The spot market just seems so fragile at this point and I feel like a lot of the carry trade has been eaten up. Maybe this is just another circumstance for SPUT to raise cash and eat up some more available lbs, or this could be the catalyst that really exposes how shallow the market truly is. Only time will tell. It seems like the industry bulls have been calling their shot about the next few months so I guess we'll see. The summer uranium doldrums are coming to an end and uranium season is basically here. Bulled up and ready to go, feels like we're close

Anybody else still here? Rolled some DNN calls to 2025 but I haven't been very active in the uranium market. This is a boring arse trade for the time being but I'm happy to keep DCA'ing here and there. More risk-off on the horizon it looks like so volatility will no doubt be persistent and dry powder is my priority currently. Thoughts?

Still slowly accumulating. The reasons for investing are still improving.

Cameco, URNM, and many other Uranium stocks are still very appealing IMO

I own 4,240 shares of SPUT and wish it was double that. Glad we've been in +NAV territory lately and hope it continues. The longer this takes the more explosive it seems it'll be. Anyone buying Sprott's new vehicle $URNJ? New ETF that is focused on junior miners.