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Thoughts on what mortgage rates are about to do?
Posted on 11/6/24 at 2:11 pm
Posted on 11/6/24 at 2:11 pm
With trump in and fed dropping rates .25 in the coming days, what is your opinion on what’s coming? I’m reading short terms up they will continue to climb, but will fall in 2025.
Thanks for any input.
Thanks for any input.
8
Posted on 11/6/24 at 3:00 pm to Tiger In the Swamp
No one knows with any level of certainty, first of all.
If you think Trump is going to get the economy humming along, I wouldn’t bet on them falling in any significant way.
If you think Trump is going to get the economy humming along, I wouldn’t bet on them falling in any significant way.
Posted on 11/6/24 at 3:55 pm to Tiger In the Swamp
Mortgage rates are generally based on the Fed rate which is "technically" separate from the executive branch.
Posted on 11/6/24 at 4:31 pm to baldona
Watch 10 or t bill
Posted on 11/6/24 at 5:51 pm to baldona
quote:
Mortgage rates are generally based on the Fed rate
Uhh no. Not even close.
Posted on 11/6/24 at 5:58 pm to slackster
While I get what you’re saying, federal reserve rates normally influence treasury yields.
So it is kinda close.
So it is kinda close.
Posted on 11/6/24 at 6:52 pm to Tiger In the Swamp
They will drop after the New Year
The cut tomorrow will help that along
The cut tomorrow will help that along
Posted on 11/6/24 at 7:34 pm to Tiger In the Swamp
Follow the 10 year treasury yield. The last 50 point cut made mortgage rates skyrocket again.
Posted on 11/6/24 at 8:36 pm to Tiger In the Swamp
quote:10 year is already up a lot just since the election last night. I wouldn't expect much compression in the near term.
With trump in and fed dropping rates .25 in the coming days, what is your opinion on what’s coming? I’m reading short terms up they will continue to climb, but will fall in 2025.
Thanks for any input.
Posted on 11/6/24 at 8:47 pm to I Love Bama
quote:
While I get what you’re saying, federal reserve rates normally influence treasury yields. So it is kinda close.
One of these is very closely correlated and one of them simply isn’t.
Posted on 11/6/24 at 8:59 pm to Tiger In the Swamp
Mortgage Rates have been rising since the last fed cut as the bond market has seen significant volatility. I anticipate we start seeing them calm down over the next few weeks and into the new year. I don’t think we see a drastic drop but more of a slow gradual decline.
Posted on 11/7/24 at 10:16 am to baldona
quote:
Mortgage rates are generally based on the Fed rate which is "technically" separate from the executive branch.
No. No they aren’t.
Posted on 11/7/24 at 10:37 am to Tiger In the Swamp
quote:
With trump in and fed dropping rates .25 in the coming days, what is your opinion on what’s coming? I’m reading short terms up they will continue to climb, but will fall in 2025.
Thanks for any input.
They will continue their rise.
Posted on 11/7/24 at 10:46 am to wutangfinancial
quote:
Mortgage rates are generally based on the Fed rate which is "technically" separate from the executive branch.
No. No they aren’t.
Then give us a good explaination of what they are based on? Educate me please. I'd love to know why the Fed rate cuts have an effect on the mortgage rates if they aren't "generally" based together?
Sure, its based on the 10 year treasuries, which are heavily influenced by the Fed Rate. Which again, is set by the Federal Reserve which as I said is technically separate from the executive branch.
Posted on 11/7/24 at 1:51 pm to baldona
quote:
Then give us a good explaination of what they are based on?
They are based on inflation mostly. Jobs are big factor now and why that fake Oct blowout sent rates higher
quote:
I'd love to know why the Fed rate cuts have an effect on the mortgage rates if they aren't "generally" based together?
Because if they are cutting it means inflation is taming and rates follow
Not in a straightline
Posted on 11/7/24 at 5:51 pm to Tiger In the Swamp
The rates are tied to the stock market. Higher returns equal higher rates.
Posted on 11/7/24 at 9:43 pm to baldona
The ten year treasury is hardly influenced by Fed policy. Long term rates usually behave the opposite way the Fed wants them too. But yes that’s the benchmark and then there are other factors like prepayment risk, duration risk and default risk for the pools of loans that fill the MBS. The premium over the Treasury is what makes them attractive.
That not even considering more technical trend following trades the hedge fund world gets into.
That not even considering more technical trend following trades the hedge fund world gets into.
Posted on 11/7/24 at 10:28 pm to wutangfinancial
What about money flowing into stocks
Posted on 11/8/24 at 7:45 am to baobabtiger
quote:
The rates are tied to the stock market. Higher returns equal higher rates.
Bond market
Posted on 11/8/24 at 10:23 am to I Love Bama
quote:
While I get what you’re saying, federal reserve rates normally influence treasury yields.
Or they’re both driven by similar other things.
The correlation is spurious.
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