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Started By
Message
re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
Posted on 1/9/19 at 9:47 am to Hussss
Posted on 1/9/19 at 9:47 am to Hussss
quote:
You shorting here Doc?
Not yet.
Technical people seem to be giving us a green light to short, but I'm not really a technical guy, and I'm still waiting on the outcome of this...
CNBC: " US trade negotiators will report back to White House before taking their next steps"
1
Posted on 1/9/19 at 9:49 am to Doc Fenton
We are in for a very choppy range (SPX 2400-2700) until the big drop.
Posted on 1/9/19 at 9:51 am to LSURussian
If 75% of the ultra rich are forecasting a US recession in the near term, don’t you think it may be priced into the markets over the last year? My thoughts on it at least
Posted on 1/9/19 at 9:56 am to HYDRebs
You are correct sir. THAT part of the equation was priced in down at SPX 2350.
What is not priced in (the big drop Doc Fenton and I both see coming) is the complete loss of confidence in central banks and governments leading to currency crises globally.
What is not priced in (the big drop Doc Fenton and I both see coming) is the complete loss of confidence in central banks and governments leading to currency crises globally.
Posted on 1/9/19 at 10:02 am to Hussss
quote:
the complete loss of confidence in central banks and governments leading to currency crises globally
Ha. We both see a bigger drop, but I wouldn't go as far as that. However, I do think that people will begin to realize that a new monetary policy paradigm is needed.
I saw an obscure article in The American Thinker toward the end of last year that seems to align with a lot of my thinking on the topic.
quote:
It is important to ask the right questions in the current debate over monetary policy. Currently, the debate keys on answers having to do with more or less: how high or low should interest rates be set? The more penetrating question would yield an either-or answer: should the primary monetary tool be interest rates? Or should that be scrapped?
A new monetary policy paradigm is needed. A new outlook would flip the emphasis in Chairman Powell’s statement above so that the Fed’s balance sheet becomes the “active tool” of monetary policy, while interest rates are relegated to a secondary concern — or discarded entirely in favor of letting the market decide the level of short-term rates.
This new paradigm would be a rule-based approach to monetary policy.
I'm not sure if I agree with everything this Soriano guy is advocating, but we seem to agree on the general direction needed.
Posted on 1/9/19 at 10:10 am to Doc Fenton
quote:
However, I do think that people will begin to realize that a new monetary policy paradigm is needed.
Actually I think it's more important to get some hawkish fiscal policy. Global Sovereign debt will act like handcuffs on central banks trying to fight inflation (at some point) everybody and their 2 year old knows government spending at this rate is unsustainable. And it's a global issue it's not concentrated in one region.
Posted on 1/9/19 at 10:12 am to Doc Fenton
I agree and to get there it will be painful. The big changes usually come out of crises.
The big back and forth between Trump and the Fed looks to me like the setup of who is going to get the blame when TSHTF. Will tariffs / Trump be blamed or will it be the Fed? It's all jawboning back and forth by both. Nothing has been done. Now we are just waiting on the next card to be played.
The big back and forth between Trump and the Fed looks to me like the setup of who is going to get the blame when TSHTF. Will tariffs / Trump be blamed or will it be the Fed? It's all jawboning back and forth by both. Nothing has been done. Now we are just waiting on the next card to be played.
Posted on 1/9/19 at 10:14 am to wutangfinancial
The two topics are closely intertwined. Once monetary policy enables loose fiscal policy, then politically speaking it becomes a near-impossibility to have hawkish fiscal policy.
Posted on 1/9/19 at 10:33 am to Hussss
quote:So 75% of the wealthy believing a recession is coming was priced into the stock market going all the way back to TWO WEEKS AGO but now that the S&P500 Index is 10% higher than it was then, it's NOT priced in?!?
THAT part of the equation was priced in down at SPX 2350.
Posted on 1/9/19 at 10:39 am to Hussss
quote:I don't own Amazon but why would you hope I sold it yesterday?
Hope you sold AMZN yesterday
It was UP $11/share earlier this morning.
EDIT: I just looked at AMZN again and it's still up over $5/share from yesterday's close.
This post was edited on 1/9/19 at 10:56 am
Posted on 1/9/19 at 11:05 am to LSURussian
Just messing with ya. Lighten up "Captain." 
I told you yesterday that AMZN put in a short to intermediate term top yesterday (1676.16).
Got lucky on AKRX I guess. FDA is coming after them.
I told you yesterday that AMZN put in a short to intermediate term top yesterday (1676.16).
Got lucky on AKRX I guess. FDA is coming after them.
This post was edited on 1/9/19 at 11:12 am
Posted on 1/9/19 at 11:14 am to Hussss
quote:I'm pretty light.
Just messing with ya. Lighten up
You gloat over giving out bad advice to sell a stock? And then you try to save face by saying you were just joking?
That's messed up...
Posted on 1/9/19 at 11:18 am to LSURussian
I thought maybe you had some skin in the game on your contest picks. Do you own any of them individually or just index ETFs / mutual funds, etc.?
Just remember that number on AMZN: 1676.16
Just remember that number on AMZN: 1676.16
This post was edited on 1/9/19 at 11:21 am
Posted on 1/9/19 at 11:31 am to Hussss
quote:Okay, so why did you tell me to sell AMZN yesterday when it was at $1,655??
Just remember that number on AMZN: 1676.16
You're all over the place with your investment advice.
I guess if you scatter-shot enough predictions and advice you'll eventually be right about some of them. And then you can gloat....
Posted on 1/9/19 at 11:32 am to Hussss
quote:
Will tariffs / Trump be blamed or will it be the Fed?
I'll give you one guess who gets blamed. Now some of us will know that the issues in the markets are upstream of politics, but most sheep won't take the time to understand.
Posted on 1/9/19 at 11:39 am to LSURussian
I want investment advice from you. I asked you a point blank question if you had skin in the game on your contest picks. What should I buy? What are you buying? What are you selling? Or do you only criticize and down vote relentlessly?
This post was edited on 1/9/19 at 11:42 am
Posted on 1/9/19 at 11:44 am to Hussss
quote:1) Buy low, sell high.
I want investment advice from you.
2) Only buy stocks that are going to go up.
3) Don't lose money.
4) Timing the market doesn't build wealth long term, time in the market does.
5) Don't give investment advice out of your arse and then pretend you know shite.
Posted on 1/9/19 at 11:47 am to LSURussian
You are still avoiding point blank questions. Come on. You told us you are smarter than analysts at Schwab. Give us some good investments not some Warren Buffett talking points. I learned that stuff way back in High School. Give me some substance, some investments.
Oh the irony....
Oh the irony....
This post was edited on 1/9/19 at 11:50 am
Posted on 1/9/19 at 11:55 am to Hussss
quote:What makes you think I'm obligated to answer your questions?
You are still avoiding point blank questions.
quote:No, I didn't. Now you're just lying.....again. If you think I did that, link to the post.
You told us you are smarter than analysts at Schwab.
ETA: That's what I thought. You can't prove you weren't lying. It's very revealing into your personality that you would blatantly lie about something like that on an anonymous message board. Inferiority complex, maybe?
This post was edited on 1/9/19 at 1:35 pm
Posted on 1/9/19 at 12:56 pm to LSURussian
All we have to remember is that he’s on the clock
June 21st SPX 1800 or below
June 21st SPX 1800 or below
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