re: The whiplash from China tariffs will be a bit like Covid shutdown according to this CEO

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The whole process took about 28 days once it left China to get to my warehouse in Louisiana.

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Been doing some reading on this. That 30 days in the original post seemed kinda of slow but apparently most ships from China will make several stops before reaching LB. Stops in Japan, Vancouver, SF appear to be normal. Then factor in time in the queue to get a dock and then unload time and 30 days or so seems normal.

Molson is a customer and a bit of an extremist, but he’s not wrong.

Relatively speaking ~70% of the US imports come from China. Of that 70%, 60% or so if all bookings since April 9 have been cancelled or postponed. Most of those cancellations are on post-production products. Those goods are done and ready for shipment, just sitting there. In line with his timelines, it will be May 9-June 9 when you start to see the impact of those goods not being where they intended to be.

I have a customer who imports 100s of containers of holiday decorations. His factory rep went to the manufacturer last week. He called back and said there are 1000s of containers worth of Walmart/Hobby Lobby/Target goods just sitting.

Aside from the inventory shortage, the bigger problem here is that once/if this resolves, everyone turns the faucet on at once. And the capacity is fixed, which means the carriers are licking their chops to charge everyone 3-5x normal ocean rates just like we saw 2020-2022. Vessels outside of LAX/LGB waiting again, the whole deal.

International supply chains run on fluidity and predictability. You stop the flow of goods for 6 weeks. It takes 5x that amount of time for the system to right itself. Even if the tariffs get resolved, the supply chain challenges are far from over.

And to everyone who always says, well that doesn’t affect me or my community, we buy local, I say go ask your local suppliers where they buy from. Everyone’s in bed with China even if you have a few degrees of separation directly. .

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But, but, but, negotiations are ongoing "daily" according to the White House.

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China appears to have quietly rolled back retaliatory tariffs of 125% on some semiconductors made in the US, according to details provided to CNN on Friday by three import agencies in the southern technology hub of Shenzhen, as Beijing tries to soften the blow of an ongoing trade war on its all-important tech industry. The exemptions apply to integrated circuits, also known as microchips or semiconductors, according to the agencies. They found out about the exemptions, which have not been officially announced, on Thursday

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So what was he supposed to do with his limited 4 years and a Congress that doesn’t do anything for its constituents? That’s the whole problem in a a nutshell is that Congress refuses to bite the hand that feeds them (China) so it forces Trump to act with the limited tools he had available. China is at war with us economically and building towards militarily. Meanwhile, the American people are worried about how tariffs will hurt them in the next year or 2. The real problem is Congress and the bureaucracies holding back the American economy with taxes, red tape and endless regulations.

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As I’ve said several times before, even if I accept the premise that a trade war was needed (I don’t, but that’s a conversation that’s far too complicated to be worthwhile on here), my objection is that the way he’s handled it has been an abject fricking disaster (and I won’t repeat myself, again, as to why I view it as such). He’s acting like a blind bull in a china shop, and any good we manage to salvage from this clusterfrick won’t be because he broke everything first. I went on record the day he announced the tariff rates as that I thought our best case scenario is that other countries give us some minor concessions that they would have been willing to make regardless (again, see Canada and Mexico at the start), let Trump claim victory, and snicker behind his back. I firmly believe that, had he not acted like a lunatic, the world wouldn’t have come together against us, and we would have been able to negotiate terms significantly better than what we are likely to end up with.

Another day Another melt from the China First, America Last money board.
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The board is getting too much interest from poli-tards. Like you. Many of you don't have a clue on how to be successful in business.

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I could find a video of the process if you’re interested.

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I'll take your word for it.
Seriously, never new violin bows were a thing. Congrats on finding a niche market.

Yep, seems to be a difficult concept for some.

This means you were using the Matson express service where they own their own terminal. It's a good reliable service, but it comes with a cost.

Here's today's market rates SHA to LAX.

Standard Carrier: $2,400/40'
Matson: $8,100/40'

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Now the Money Board trusts Chinese officals and is rooting for them TDS is a helluva drug

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The money board probably understands that Trump is a known shameless liar. I know that when it comes to making a decision for my money, I’ll believe anyone before I’d believe Trump. If that’s TDS then I have it too. It’s better that TSS Trump Sycophant Syndrome