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re: The stock market next week....

Posted on 11/1/10 at 8:44 am to
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
134846 posts
Posted on 11/1/10 at 8:44 am to
quote:

Devaluing of our currency. We are rapidily headed down the Japan road.

You realize, of course, that's Japan's currency is stronger now than it has been in years, right? It's so strong, Japan's central bank is selling yen and buying dollars in an attempt to weaken it versus the dollar, but it hasn't worked yet.
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 11/1/10 at 9:37 am to
quote:

You realize, of course, that's Japan's currency is stronger now than it has been in years, right? It's so strong, Japan's central bank is selling yen and buying dollars in an attempt to weaken it versus the dollar, but it hasn't worked yet.



Boom. Roasted. Next.
Posted by Aubie Spr96
lolwut?
Member since Dec 2009
44409 posts
Posted on 11/1/10 at 9:58 am to
quote:

You realize, of course, that's Japan's currency is stronger now than it has been in years, right?


Our dollar is falling right now because we are printing money as fast as we can. Essentially, everyone's currency is rising against ours.

Sound Familiar?
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
134846 posts
Posted on 11/1/10 at 10:09 am to
quote:

Our dollar is falling right now because we are printing money as fast as we can.
How is that relevant to your comment that we are heading down Japan's path?
Posted by Aubie Spr96
lolwut?
Member since Dec 2009
44409 posts
Posted on 11/1/10 at 10:14 am to
quote:

How is that relevant to your comment that we are heading down Japan's path?


Because we are doing EXACTLY what they did to try and solve their fiscal crisis of the 90's. Read the referenced article. The parallels are scary.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
134846 posts
Posted on 11/1/10 at 10:15 am to
quote:

Because we are doing EXACTLY what they did to try and solve their fiscal crisis of the 90's.
But you compared the dollar weakening to Japan. Japan's currency is strengthening, not weakening.
Posted by John Merlyn
Member since Oct 2009
2203 posts
Posted on 11/1/10 at 10:31 am to
quote:

Our dollar is falling right now because we are printing money as fast as we can. Essentially, everyone's currency is rising against ours.


You are aware that a falling dollar isn't all bad, meaning our exports would rise as the dollar falls?

That is, even if we were "furiously" printing away.
Posted by Chris Farley
Regulating
Member since Sep 2009
4213 posts
Posted on 11/1/10 at 11:46 am to
quote:

Generally one of the worst retail products in existence. Be careful with it.


Getting rid of it by the end of the week. Are there any better products that track the VIX?
Posted by John Merlyn
Member since Oct 2009
2203 posts
Posted on 11/1/10 at 1:15 pm to
VXZ
Posted by Tiger JJ
Member since Aug 2010
545 posts
Posted on 11/1/10 at 1:21 pm to
quote:


Getting rid of it by the end of the week. Are there any better products that track the VIX?


IMO, the volatility space has been ruined by setting up all these retail products. It's warped all the technicals.
Posted by RedStickBR
Member since Sep 2009
14577 posts
Posted on 11/1/10 at 1:48 pm to
Farley, check out Bill Luby's blog. He's about as knowledgeable as anyone I've seen on anything VIX-related.

LINK
Posted by Chris Farley
Regulating
Member since Sep 2009
4213 posts
Posted on 11/1/10 at 2:08 pm to
I'll check it out, thanks guys.
Posted by EOT
70769
Member since Dec 2006
1443 posts
Posted on 11/1/10 at 2:41 pm to
quote:

But you compared the dollar weakening to Japan


I could be wrong but I think he's referring to the dollar weakening to Japan's situation in the 90's, not the current state of the Yen.
Posted by LSU0358
Member since Jan 2005
8149 posts
Posted on 11/4/10 at 11:59 am to
quote:

Bought some VXX on Monday in preparation


Ouch...
Posted by Tiger JJ
Member since Aug 2010
545 posts
Posted on 11/4/10 at 12:02 pm to
quote:

Ouch...


The VXX is just not a good mechanism to use for almost anything.
Posted by John Merlyn
Member since Oct 2009
2203 posts
Posted on 11/4/10 at 1:46 pm to
VXX currently down 6% on the day, yikes.
Posted by Tiger JJ
Member since Aug 2010
545 posts
Posted on 11/4/10 at 2:03 pm to
Down almost 20% since Monday.
Posted by John Merlyn
Member since Oct 2009
2203 posts
Posted on 11/4/10 at 2:06 pm to
January 2012 $5 Dollar puts on VXX are .60 each.

Fish in a barrel.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
134846 posts
Posted on 11/5/10 at 4:38 pm to
Before anyone calls me out, I'll go ahead and admit it: I missed it.

No excuses but when I started this thread I totally forgot the Fed meeting was the day after the election. I'm not sure it would have altered my prediction but I probably would not have started a thread on it.
I still think we're due for a pull back, but no more predictions.
Posted by GeauxGamble
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2010
20 posts
Posted on 11/5/10 at 5:24 pm to
I think we were all going to let you slide..
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