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re: Stock Market Sentiment drops to lower levels than seen during the Dot Com Bubble/GFC
Posted on 3/28/25 at 8:27 am to ApexHunterNetcode
Posted on 3/28/25 at 8:27 am to ApexHunterNetcode
quote:
Like it or not, quantitative signals all support this statement. The past 2 weeks have been pure uncertainty. Lowest volume days in a long long time. Volume = liquidity. Levels point to likely sideways or down another 20%. We needed to blow past 575 on the S&P to exit correction. The breakout failed and we're still hovering in uncertainty.
I just saw a stat that said when volume is this low on QQQ 6 days in a row, like it just did, we've been up 100% of the time a month later, and then mostly the rest of the year.
Also this:
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Posted on 3/28/25 at 8:55 am to Suntiger
quote:
I’m old enough to remember being told these tariffs were just a negotiation tactic.
It's certainly been an interesting, and very rapid, evolution. From "it's the Art of the Deal, snowflakes" to "by god, I will eat rice and beans for the motherland for as long as it takes to win this trade war!"
We continue to live in interesting times
Posted on 3/28/25 at 8:57 am to Joshjrn
Don't worry. The people who make tariff decisions like to make money in the stock market too.
Posted on 3/28/25 at 9:03 am to The Scofflaw
I don't watch the financial entertainment channels--are they mentioning the data that is coming in, or is it just TARIFFS TARIFFS TARIFFS?
Posted on 3/28/25 at 9:11 am to RoyalWe
quote:
Don't worry. The people who make tariff decisions like to make money in the stock market too.
From an investment perspective, the only thing better than market certainty is market uncertainty when you have insider knowledge of imminent shifts in policy.
And the denizens of the federal government don’t exactly have a great track record of overcoming the urge to use their insider knowledge to enrich themselves.
Posted on 3/28/25 at 11:25 am to Joshjrn
quote:Sure, but I'm betting things will be fine in the long haul and I'm not trying to time the market. I'll do my quarterly trades next week and will be selling bonds and buying stocks. I'm actually glad that this week has been down so prices will be cheaper. If they're down the following quarter then I'll buy more, rinse and repeat until I'm out of buying power.
And the denizens of the federal government don’t exactly have a great track record of overcoming the urge to use their insider knowledge to enrich themselves.
Posted on 3/28/25 at 11:35 am to Joshjrn
quote:
It's certainly been an interesting, and very rapid, evolution. From "it's the Art of the Deal, snowflakes" to "by god, I will eat rice and beans for the motherland for as long as it takes to win this trade war!"
We continue to live in interesting times
People are ok being in cults now. Very few leaders, mostly a bunch of lemmings these days. Interesting times indeed.
Posted on 3/28/25 at 11:44 am to SDVTiger
What exactly are you laughing at? Do you disagree?
Posted on 3/28/25 at 11:50 am to RoyalWe
quote:
Sure, but I'm betting things will be fine in the long haul and I'm not trying to time the market. I'll do my quarterly trades next week and will be selling bonds and buying stocks. I'm actually glad that this week has been down so prices will be cheaper. If they're down the following quarter then I'll buy more, rinse and repeat until I'm out of buying power.
Of course; I'm not concerned. I just keep plugging away every week into the same funds, just like I always have. But this is the MT. The same people crowing on here during Trump's first term about how he should get 100% of the credit for a rising stock market now want to pretend as though he should get none of the blame for a cratering stock market. The hypocrisy is silly and should be noted as such.
Posted on 3/28/25 at 11:56 am to beaverfever
quote:
Probably, the S&P was way too high.
I agree with this. I still think it's overvalued.
Posted on 3/28/25 at 12:09 pm to fallguy_1978
quote:Same. We took on a lot of debt and borrowed equity valuation from the future in the last 15 years. There’s a cost to that.
I agree with this. I still think it's overvalued.
I call bullshite on this entire thread premise and the fear index. It can get way way worse. I’ve seen it multiple times and I’m not even that old. Not saying it will but the expectation for 10%+ annually from the S&P needed a reality check.
This post was edited on 3/28/25 at 1:34 pm
Posted on 3/28/25 at 12:11 pm to The Scofflaw
Yea Tom Lee and others were saying this last week. I listened, got suckered in and burned on a false breakout this week. Not imbibing the hopium two weeks in a row.
nB4 “muh fundamentals”
nB4 “so much cash in the sidelines tho”
nB4 “muh fundamentals”
nB4 “so much cash in the sidelines tho”
Posted on 3/28/25 at 12:25 pm to fallguy_1978
I've been having a buy order for VOO at $500 for a while now. When it didn't hit the mark 2 weeks ago I figured it wouldn't ever. But maybe there is a chance
Posted on 3/28/25 at 12:29 pm to TxTiger82
quote:
Not imbibing the hopium two weeks in a row.
Everyone is acting like there will be mass capitulation on April 2nd, but does anyone really believe that the entire post-WW2 trade paradigm will just give up that easily? I don’t. I do think we’ll win this tariff war, but it may be a while.
Posted on 3/28/25 at 1:29 pm to rickyb223
quote:
Everyone is acting like there will be mass capitulation on April 2nd
Idiot creates problem
quote:
we’ll win this tariff war,
Idiot solves manufactured problem to appear as a savior. Seals clap approval.
Posted on 3/28/25 at 2:12 pm to Lakeboy7
you are the idiot there is a reason your poor
Posted on 3/28/25 at 2:53 pm to tigersmanager
quote:
you are the idiot there is a reason your poor
Your poor what?
Posted on 3/28/25 at 2:54 pm to The Scofflaw
quote:Such pretentious nonsense. Call it like it is. Market manipulation. What i have learned in my small time in the stock market, is that big institutions run it. While Trump puts a monkey wrench in it flipping it back and forth with sentiment, institutions use what Trump and Feds say to pick up and dump, playing this game to wait out all the ill-informed people and scared money. The only true thing big money didn't account for this year was the Deepseek thing.
Smart money sees the pattern. Do you?.
See, we ran up too much and too fast and institutions didn't get on the ride fast enough. Now they've been trying to tank it to their levels to hop back on. Many big stocks and even smaller ones are below 6 months, and some even 9 months, prior prices. It's the same thing with crypto. Completely halted the bull run year because they finally wanted to get a piece.
Posted on 3/28/25 at 3:42 pm to beaverfever
quote:
The direction seems clear now
Clear as mud.
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