re: Spec Play - HGRAF

quote:

---

didn't he have some like a $4m stock option package?

---

I think it was staggered ove 4 years - I'm no certain whether he gets the first 25% now, or after 1 year...

quote:

---

But the glass half-full side of me likes that they acted quickly and decisively (or so it would seem) in making a change.

---

Yeah, seems like the kind of thinking that creeps into the market sentiment around mid-day...

For what it's worth, my shares just went off loan.

quote:

---

I can attest it’s no easy feat getting ink on a contract even when you do have the best products

---

Especially with a brand new product and none of your client's competitors have tested the waters, either.

The questions I have are:

1.) Is HGRAF is not fast tracking the production site build because they have no customers or

2.) Customers aren't signing POs because HGRAF has no production facility or

3.) Is HGRAF further along on the production facility, but keeping it quiet, while simultaneously not disclosing customers who have signed up to buy graphene once it's available?

quote:

---

This is why I sold most of my position weeks ago when this topic was discussed here. It is inexcusable IMO for a $2B market cap company in the throes of development to not have a solid business development team put together - and I put this on the CEO.

---

The ideal situation is that they are selling and customers are not ready yet for mass quantities. Customers have to do their due diligence and test and compare different products before settling on one to buy.

I have considered your position, where the CEO is just incompetent (or inexperienced) and not ready for prime time in this situation. She has a materials science background, not a business or manufacturing background, so it makes sense that she might not be the best person for this stage of the company.

However, if HGRAF fails in this stage, the company should be acquired. The product, patents, and potential are likely worth more than $2B and it could be a big payday. That is what keeps me in the game, because I don't see this withering on the vine. I see it less as a binary play of success/failure, but that it is evolving into a binary play of either huge success or it gets bought out.

I have made the case that it appears that they are playing this to be acquired, anyway. They are focusing on patents, products, and customers, more than the production facility build out. Since the executive team is NOT a manufacturing centric team, they may be setting the table for someone else to take over.

I'm probably wrong, FWIW.

ETA: My main reason for thinking they are in an acquisition play is that they simply do not have the capital to build out a facility, build all the hyperions, do all the R&D necessary, and hire a sales force to take this big time. Maybe I'm wrong about that, and they have a plan. I just shudder to think how much dilution there is going to be if they decide to sell stock to raise that kind of capital. Seems that that would only work if they announce that they have pre-sold 10,000 tons of graphene.

Unrelated note, the page about graphene paste has been removed.

https://hydrograph.com/graphene-paste/

404 error now

If it walks like a duck it’s a CEO with an undergraduate degree in Political Science.

quote:

---

I put this on the CEO.

---

But she looks like she smells good. What else do you need?

quote:

---

However, if HGRAF fails in this stage, the company should be acquired. The product, patents, and potential are likely worth more than $2B and it could be a big payday.

---

I don't disagree with this completely. I still have a thousand shares for this possibility. But playing devil's advocate -

Selling IP isn't always straightforward. Particularly for a company that, at the stage of the game this would be happening at (lack of success in commercial development), would not have much leverage - unless there was some sort of wild competition to acquire. But if that was in the offing, wouldn't it have happened by now? Have we heard of anyone kicking the tires?

When do the patents related to Hyperion expire? I thought I read in this thread weeks ago that expiry wasn't all that far down the road.

Correct, they have 8-10 years left on their core patents (but also have 10+ new patents filed pending approval) so as long as they’re truly progressing in the buildout phase, I think we’re fine. The CEO’s lack of experience has always been my biggest concern. Learning on the job for a company with this much potential is not ideal, but it is what it is. I hope (and believe) she has some good council in her ear.

I’ll continue to say, I believe we’ll know a lot more in the next few months. If they haven’t announced the gas partner by July/August, I will be very anxious and worried. As of now, I think we just have to roll with it and hope the NDA’s are the reason for the lack of contract news. And that would make sense. Ex: if you’re the Top-10 automaker they’ve been working with and know “the sauce” you need, you want complete silence until Hydrograf is capable of actually producing the ingredients needed. Otherwise, your competitive advantage would be compromised. I’m continuing to add to my position but also watching it like a hawk.