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re: So the universe knew tarrifs were coming today.
Posted on 4/2/25 at 8:29 pm to BCreed1
Posted on 4/2/25 at 8:29 pm to BCreed1
quote:
Not OK at all. We have destroyed a massive part of America.
Those days aren’t going to come back. American labor is far too expensive, Labor too powerful, and a nation of people who, quite frankly, don’t want those jobs.
We run trade deficits and pay tariffs because they help our economy by keeping things affordable. We’ve moved from manufacturing to service/tech/science.
There’s a ton out there to read from very accomplished and insightful people…people without a political bone in their bodies who are raising every flag they can to call out how incredibly dumb this is.
And we can talk about “oh, the markets knew “Liberation Day” was coming. Yeah, you’re right. But what he laid out is far worse than anticipated. And the markets have absolutely no clue how the rest of the world is going to respond.
You know you fricked up when you’ve got China, South Korea, and Japan working together to fight American tariffs. We’re being led by a complete imbecile.
1
Posted on 4/2/25 at 8:30 pm to Joshjrn
Chatter is starting to kick up that the numbers in the left column weren’t actually tariff rates, but trade imbalance ratios. Has anyone seen a definitive support or refutation of that?
Posted on 4/2/25 at 8:35 pm to Civildawg
quote:
Why is it ok for basically every country in the world to leverage tariffs against our goods but when we do it people freak out and act like the world is burning? I just don't understand it. Our country is the gold mine and we are the ones that are getting screwed everywhere else
It's always easy to see who doesn't know shite about supply chain in these threads.
Posted on 4/2/25 at 8:42 pm to LSUShock
Saw an interesting stat today.
Back in Detroit’s heyday, a plant would hire as many as 100,000 workers.
The new Hyundai EV plant outside Savannah is expecting to produce 8,500 jobs.
We’re in a different world, folks. This isn’t 1954 and this isn’t going to make America great again.
Back in Detroit’s heyday, a plant would hire as many as 100,000 workers.
The new Hyundai EV plant outside Savannah is expecting to produce 8,500 jobs.
We’re in a different world, folks. This isn’t 1954 and this isn’t going to make America great again.
Posted on 4/2/25 at 8:45 pm to Joshjrn
quote:
Chatter is starting to kick up that the numbers in the left column weren’t actually tariff rates, but trade imbalance ratios. Has anyone seen a definitive support or refutation of that?
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Posted on 4/2/25 at 8:45 pm to LSUShock
I’m situated. Hook us up with some supply chain alpha and pick that post apart.
Posted on 4/2/25 at 8:45 pm to Joshjrn
quote:
Chatter is starting to kick up that the numbers in the left column weren’t actually tariff rates, but trade imbalance ratios. Has anyone seen a definitive support or refutation of that?
They weren’t actually tariff rates alone. They were a combination of tariff rates, currency manipulation, VAT, barriers to entry, etc. I think it’s a fair idea but I’d like to see the math.
Posted on 4/2/25 at 8:48 pm to slackster
quote:
They weren’t actually tariff rates alone. They were a combination of tariff rates, currency manipulation, VAT, barriers to entry, etc. I think it’s a fair idea but I’d like to see the math.
lol. If anyone coulda actually reliably quantify this, they’d get a Nobel prize in economics.
It’s a bullshite number as presented on the poster board.
Posted on 4/2/25 at 8:49 pm to LSUShock
Did I say I knew anything about supply chains? I asked a simple question and was looking for answers from people, which I found. No need to bring that OT BS to this board
Posted on 4/2/25 at 8:50 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
lol. If anyone coulda actually reliably quantify this, they’d get a Nobel prize in economics.
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Posted on 4/2/25 at 8:53 pm to mmmmmbeeer
quote:
We’re in a different world, folks. This isn’t 1954 and this isn’t going to make America great again.
+1 Go tell this to the poli board
Posted on 4/2/25 at 8:55 pm to UltimaParadox
If it turns out to be true that these tariffs are based solely on a trade imbalance ratio, calling them “reciprocal” would be dishonest in the extreme.
This post was edited on 4/2/25 at 8:56 pm
Posted on 4/2/25 at 8:55 pm to UltimaParadox
I don’t doubt there’s a way to make up a number. I doubt that it’s actually meaningful. Good try, though.
Posted on 4/2/25 at 9:35 pm to Civildawg
For starters, I'll share one of the more insightful pieces of commentary below I've seen on the topic today directly from the kind of person who is impacted the most.
You (an I'm generalizing not pointing) want to tell Nike and Home Depot and Walmart to frick off, pay your fair share, quit selling out, whatever. That's fine. I'm all for that.
But tariffs don't have China or Taiwan or India or Italy or any other country you want to get back at pay any tariffs. Just go ask every US Importer of Record on an ocean or air freight bill of lading exactly who pays that tariff. It's not a foreigner sitting and getting fat rich off America. It's your neighbor, and your buddies family business, and the guy at the local country club in every half decent sized city in the country. That's really who we want to hurt with all this? The guy who runs a good SMB and employees 5-100 people in his community?
"Liberation Day?
My company was founded by an American entrepreneur who started the business in his garage. Our business embodies the quintessential American dream. We have been operating successfully for nearly 25 years and rely heavily on importing goods from China and other countries. We import from these countries because we purchase products directly from the original manufacturers, who allow us to make design changes and then make their products available to small businesses like ours. Unfortunately, no such suppliers exist in the USA, and we are not a large enough business to build our own manufacturing.
The impact of tariff actions in 2018 and again in the last 60 days has resulted in a nearly 50% increase in costs due to additional tariffs. Unfortunately, the imposition of tariffs has already led to a significant reduction in jobs in our operations and a subsequent scaling down in investments that benefit the US economy.
Further, the lack of notice has created a profound impact on our cash flow. For example, if a company had intended to import $1 million of goods in the second quarter of 2025, the tariffs added $200,000 to the cost of those goods. This is a cost that we are required to pay immediately to the US Customs Department and therefore must be paid in cash. This is a significant issue for any company of our size. Small and medium-sized enterprises, which form the backbone of our economy, are particularly vulnerable to these changes.
Finally, the benefits of the tariff and reduced competition in our circumstances will only strengthen and grow foreign-based manufacturers. As one example, according to research firm Marketplace Pulse, the growth of China-based sellers on the Amazon platform has increased from approximately 12% in 2018 to well over 50% in 2024 and is expected to continue growing in 2025. Among the reasons, the impact of the manufacturer's ability to reduce the cost of tariffs (based on being able to import at a reduced manufacturer's cost versus an FOB Factory cost with included profit) has created an incentive for them to build their own brands. Additionally, the “de minimis” exception allows them to import directly from overseas without incurring a tariff. To put it bluntly, the current tariff policies are creating an environment that hurts small businesses in the USA, while benefiting foreign-based businesses. Additionally, due to the ridiculous de minimis exception, these businesses are NOT PAYING ANY TARIFF.
An immediate exception should be given to any USA-based company with annual revenues of $150 million or less, where no viable alternative exists in the USA. The broader implications of these tariffs should prompt the administration to implement this strategy as soon as possible."
You (an I'm generalizing not pointing) want to tell Nike and Home Depot and Walmart to frick off, pay your fair share, quit selling out, whatever. That's fine. I'm all for that.
But tariffs don't have China or Taiwan or India or Italy or any other country you want to get back at pay any tariffs. Just go ask every US Importer of Record on an ocean or air freight bill of lading exactly who pays that tariff. It's not a foreigner sitting and getting fat rich off America. It's your neighbor, and your buddies family business, and the guy at the local country club in every half decent sized city in the country. That's really who we want to hurt with all this? The guy who runs a good SMB and employees 5-100 people in his community?
"Liberation Day?
My company was founded by an American entrepreneur who started the business in his garage. Our business embodies the quintessential American dream. We have been operating successfully for nearly 25 years and rely heavily on importing goods from China and other countries. We import from these countries because we purchase products directly from the original manufacturers, who allow us to make design changes and then make their products available to small businesses like ours. Unfortunately, no such suppliers exist in the USA, and we are not a large enough business to build our own manufacturing.
The impact of tariff actions in 2018 and again in the last 60 days has resulted in a nearly 50% increase in costs due to additional tariffs. Unfortunately, the imposition of tariffs has already led to a significant reduction in jobs in our operations and a subsequent scaling down in investments that benefit the US economy.
Further, the lack of notice has created a profound impact on our cash flow. For example, if a company had intended to import $1 million of goods in the second quarter of 2025, the tariffs added $200,000 to the cost of those goods. This is a cost that we are required to pay immediately to the US Customs Department and therefore must be paid in cash. This is a significant issue for any company of our size. Small and medium-sized enterprises, which form the backbone of our economy, are particularly vulnerable to these changes.
Finally, the benefits of the tariff and reduced competition in our circumstances will only strengthen and grow foreign-based manufacturers. As one example, according to research firm Marketplace Pulse, the growth of China-based sellers on the Amazon platform has increased from approximately 12% in 2018 to well over 50% in 2024 and is expected to continue growing in 2025. Among the reasons, the impact of the manufacturer's ability to reduce the cost of tariffs (based on being able to import at a reduced manufacturer's cost versus an FOB Factory cost with included profit) has created an incentive for them to build their own brands. Additionally, the “de minimis” exception allows them to import directly from overseas without incurring a tariff. To put it bluntly, the current tariff policies are creating an environment that hurts small businesses in the USA, while benefiting foreign-based businesses. Additionally, due to the ridiculous de minimis exception, these businesses are NOT PAYING ANY TARIFF.
An immediate exception should be given to any USA-based company with annual revenues of $150 million or less, where no viable alternative exists in the USA. The broader implications of these tariffs should prompt the administration to implement this strategy as soon as possible."
Posted on 4/2/25 at 9:38 pm to UltimaParadox
quote:
The specific “reciprocal” tariff rate was roughly half of the current trade imbalance because “the president is lenient and he wants to be kind to the world,” a Trump aide told reporters.
“The numbers [for tariffs by country] have been calculated by the Council of Economic Advisers … based on the concept that the trade deficit that we have with any given country is the sum of all trade practices, the sum of all cheating,” a White House official said, calling it “the most fair thing in the world.”
This is one of the most mind numbingly stupid things I’ve ever read, and that’s an incredibly high bar to get over. The idea that every country would trade at exact equilibrium absent “cheating” is absurd. This isn’t “reciprocal” by any rational definition. And because of that, there’s literally nothing these countries can do politically to solve the issue, as it’s not based on policy. Every bit of this sales pitch was a fricking lie. This needs to be scrapped immediately and we can go back to the drawing board.
Posted on 4/2/25 at 11:33 pm to Joshjrn
official US reciprocal tariff calculator
So yeah it is not even remotely close to a reciprocal tariff
quote:
Reciprocal tariffs are calculated as the tariff rate necessary to balance bilateral trade deficits between the U.S. and each of our trading partners. This calculation assumes that persistent trade deficits are due to a combination of tariff and non-tariff factors that prevent trade from balancing. Tariffs work through direct reductions of imports.
So yeah it is not even remotely close to a reciprocal tariff
Posted on 4/3/25 at 12:44 am to slackster
quote:
They weren’t actually tariff rates alone. They were a combination of tariff rates, currency manipulation, VAT, barriers to entry, etc. I think it’s a fair idea but I’d like to see the math.
Appears it wasn't even that.
Posted on 4/3/25 at 1:08 am to mmmmmbeeer
quote:
American labor is far too expensive, Labor too powerful, and a nation of people who, quite frankly, don’t want those jobs.
Gut the welfare states and this changes. American labor is expensive because it pays to be unproductive and lazy in this country. Hunger is a great motivator.
quote:
We’ve moved from manufacturing to service/tech/science.
The government placed so many taxes and barriers to entry for manufacturing it destroyed the sector.
Get the government out of business and watch it come back.
This post was edited on 4/3/25 at 1:11 am
Posted on 4/3/25 at 6:04 am to Lgrnwd
quote:
Remember, “If’s it’s in the news, it’s in the price.” Meaning, usually when news is officially released to the public, 90% of the move, up or down has already taken place.
The big money already closed their positions. The markets stayed up as long as it needed. It’s the bag holders getting the shaft now.
Posted on 4/3/25 at 6:32 am to slackster
quote:Indeed. I have a truckload of cash .... but most of it is set aside for Uncle Sam on Apr 15th
Ultimately a nice buying opportunity if you think it’s overdone.
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