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re: Realistic outlook for the real estate market?
Posted on 4/13/20 at 3:18 pm to whoa
Posted on 4/13/20 at 3:18 pm to whoa
quote:
I was in college during that crash so I never paid attention at the time. I just recently looked it up and saw that $200k homes were going for $140k. If I could get a $180k home for $150k, I’d be happy as would many of my peers in the same boat
I was in the middle of paying for my first home when this happened. I had paid 100k for it in 2000, but refi in 2004. By 2009-2010 there were foreclosures in the neighborhood going for 40k. I moved and rented it out to young couples for 10 years. I sold it last year for 169k. Only renovation done during that entire time was new roof, flooring and water heater. This is low end starter home. It ain’t worth 169k.
0
Posted on 4/13/20 at 3:53 pm to whoa
quote:
Are we headed for a crash? Will things remain stagnant? Housing prices increase? Buyers or sellers market?
Two positive factors in the current housing market that will help in the coming months.
1. Home ownership current equity. We were up to over 50% of homes owned in america had over 50% equity in their home in the latest report. (of course this will drop if the average value of homes decrease, but this is at the highest point I believe it has been recorded at in recent us history)
2. We have and currently still have a housing shortage. Not enough inventory has been built up in recent years.
These two factors are pretty strong headwinds helping prop up against a overall US real estate market crash. Of course each individual market will vary and be affected differently
Posted on 4/13/20 at 5:11 pm to ItNeverRains
quote:
The tighter the banks get the harder it will be hit
Why would the banks tighten up? Prime is at the lowest it’s been. Prices may drop because of demand but I don’t see banks stopping lending.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 5:37 pm to BigPerm30
Hard to provide proof of income when you are furloughed or laid off.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 6:51 pm to BigPerm30
quote:
Why would the banks tighten up? Prime is at the lowest it’s been. Prices may drop because of demand but I don’t see banks stopping lending
They already have. They always have, always will when there is uncertainty. Wells Fargo and Chase are out of the secondary market with regards to jumbo.
From My Wells LO on a product for my client... “Wells determined that to keep the low jumbo loan rates, they did not want to let the brokers and such originate out jumbo loans. It’s good for me really. For your exact loan it’s 3.375 right now. So slightly higher than what your client is getting”
Posted on 4/13/20 at 7:07 pm to Paul Allen
quote:
I’m wondering if June, July and August are going to be super busy since restrictions will hopefully be loosened by then and it’s still before school starts.
I hope so, mine will be on the market in 3-4 weeks.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 9:48 pm to BigPerm30
Worried about people not being able to pay their mortgage. Has nothing to do with rates.
Posted on 4/14/20 at 6:55 am to kywildcatfanone
Mine is currently on the market. We have had two contracts fall through due to buyer financing. Showings have greatly reduced since the stay at home order began.
Posted on 4/14/20 at 7:13 am to BuzzSaw 12
quote:
As long as the economy is opened back up soon I think real estate will be ok. However if they drag this crap out for another month or longer then real estate could be in trouble. If that happens this thing goes from an economic pause due to a health crisis to a full blown financial crisis. I don't think anyone wants to go thru 2008-2009 again.
This is definitely going to drag out another month or longer, no doubt. But remember where rates are. In my opinion, it well could turn into a buyers market, investor based.
Posted on 4/14/20 at 9:10 am to whoa
Commercial will be hurt more than residential since it was nearing a tipping point anyway.
Now though, commercial will have to re-evaluate the landscape as business changes it’s culture. The remote workplace is here to stay.
More restaurants are going to wait drive through service. Even fancy steakhouses will have drive up or drive thru service.
Residential will see a marked shift from urban to more sub urban lifestyles with larger lots. New construction will see a shift from the “open” floor plan to a more secularized floor plan with hallways being more common.
Expect to see more home office space
Now though, commercial will have to re-evaluate the landscape as business changes it’s culture. The remote workplace is here to stay.
More restaurants are going to wait drive through service. Even fancy steakhouses will have drive up or drive thru service.
Residential will see a marked shift from urban to more sub urban lifestyles with larger lots. New construction will see a shift from the “open” floor plan to a more secularized floor plan with hallways being more common.
Expect to see more home office space
Posted on 4/14/20 at 4:16 pm to BigPerm30
quote:
Why would the banks tighten up? Prime is at the lowest it’s been. Prices may drop because of demand but I don’t see banks stopping lending.
There is a massive liquidity crisis going on for non-bank servicers who make up over 60% of the market.
The non-bank lender servicers are still responsible for paying their investors for the loans they are holding. Well when states and local governments institute foreclosure and eviction prohibitions for a month to six months well those non-bank servicers don't have the cash on hand to satisfy the their investors. This in turn is creating a massive panic that many of these non-bank lenders are now overleveraged.
Imagine if just these companies: Quicken, Freedom, loanDepot, Mr. Cooper, Roundpoint, and Carrington all went belly up?
This is why the market is freezing up and loans are tightening harder and harder. Chase just said their worst case scenario of credit losses this year might be $38 billion!
Posted on 4/14/20 at 4:47 pm to MrLSU
NOTHING is going belly up. Nothing. Fed dumping trillions upon trillions into any TBTF Financial Services Company. ONLY qualification is that the company CANNOT be a Small Business.
Posted on 4/15/20 at 1:01 pm to PUB
Another nugget from a SunTrust lender. See a pattern forming?
“I hope everyone is staying safe. The lending landscape is definitely changing, but as long as you have 5% to 10% down, I think that you will be safe from the changes thus far. They have not told us any more major changes as of right now outside of 100% financing scenarios. While I don’t anticipate anything that will affect things in your situation, these are unchartered waters. I can only say that from what we are told thus far. Those with 5 to 10% down (depending on sales price of course), should not have any major changes at this point from what they are saying.
Sorry that I cannot give more definite answers, but I do believe that we are committed to these physician loans. So, I think that we are safe thus far especially if able to put 10% down.”
Thank you
“I hope everyone is staying safe. The lending landscape is definitely changing, but as long as you have 5% to 10% down, I think that you will be safe from the changes thus far. They have not told us any more major changes as of right now outside of 100% financing scenarios. While I don’t anticipate anything that will affect things in your situation, these are unchartered waters. I can only say that from what we are told thus far. Those with 5 to 10% down (depending on sales price of course), should not have any major changes at this point from what they are saying.
Sorry that I cannot give more definite answers, but I do believe that we are committed to these physician loans. So, I think that we are safe thus far especially if able to put 10% down.”
Thank you
This post was edited on 4/15/20 at 1:02 pm
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