re: Prediction what markets will have a down year and by how much?

He’s saying that’s below upper middle class. What he’s not seeing is upper middle class. Upper middle class to me starts at 600k and goes to 1.5mil.

agreed. Location matters. I would be lower middle class in New York City or the Bay Area. But in Louisiana im upper middle class.

I understand nobody likes a bear. I know people have been predicting a pull back for years now. The market is overpriced and unsustainable. My prediction is for year end and not some arbitrary point in time where I can claim I told you so.

I fear borrowing costs will rise despite fed cuts. I fear inflation will remain sticky. There will be more bankruptcies, foreclosures, repossessions, and job losses this year than the previous year. AI will turn out to be fools gold.

Now that I’ve said all of that, hopefully I put the jinx on it for you. Good luck!

SP 5881 12/31

-10% before summer
S&P 5293


People will let a chunk of 2024 gains disappear.

I guess I’ll give you birds a second chance at a prediction now that quarter 1 is almost over and the recession talk has heated up. I’m still sticking to my guns. May have under shot my Russell 2k prediction.

quote:

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Still have a ways to go but looks like I’m the only one who saw this coming.

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The base case this year was for a correction of 10-15% but also for a -5 to +10% by the end of the year. We are getting a deeper correction but I believe it's just stronger medicine for a healthier patient later on. I'll go with -5 to + 5% now by years end with 10-20% gain by Summer 2026.