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re: Possibility that Fed announce NO interest rate hikes- UPDATE
Posted on 5/24/22 at 9:16 am to oneg8rh8r
Posted on 5/24/22 at 9:16 am to oneg8rh8r
Turkey is trying the opposite approach. Doesn't seem to be working out.
quote:
The tensions are playing out at a time when Turkish interest rates are the world’s lowest -- at about negative 56% -- when adjusted for prices.
Although consumer prices rose an annual 70% in April, the central bank will likely keep its benchmark at 14% at a meeting on Thursday, extending a pause that followed 500 basis points of cuts last year.
Lacking a rate buffer to protect Turkish assets against a selloff, the central bank also has fewer resources to deploy to steady the market. Its gross foreign-currency reserves fell the most this year in the seven days ended May 13, bringing the stockpile to a 10-month low of $61.2 billion.
Excluding swaps with commercial lenders and other central banks, Turkey’s net foreign assets have reached negative $63.3 billion, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Turkish Reserves Lost ‘Shocking’ $4.8 Billion in Just One Week
Posted on 5/24/22 at 9:24 am to oneg8rh8r
quote:
The only way to curb this is to get interest rates a couple of points above inflation to get it to slowly start to come down back to something manageable, 2-4% / yr.
Y'all are a certain type of special. How will raising the overnight lending rate bring commodity prices down, bring back workers into the workforce and open up Chinese factories? You know the Fed doesn't have any control over any interest rates related to real world financing? Talk about cognitive dissonance
Posted on 5/24/22 at 10:08 am to oneg8rh8r
quote:
I said that is what is needed, I agree they don't have the balls to do it so this will make this a very slow and long recovery, unfortunately.
Your suggestion would lead to a global recession. No one wants that.
Posted on 5/25/22 at 4:50 am to davidsheroes
No, the FED will continue with to low .5/.25 rate hikes.
Much more important will be how fast they start unwinding there balance sheet in June. (which is at all time high)
Much more important will be how fast they start unwinding there balance sheet in June. (which is at all time high)
Posted on 5/25/22 at 7:30 am to dragginass
quote:
$10 milk is worse than 6% mortgage rates for elections.
Add in most American's financial ignorance when it comes to national debt and you're spot on.
Posted on 5/25/22 at 8:37 pm to davidsheroes
quote:Welp.
What is the Possibility that Fed announce NO interest rate hikes?
Posted on 5/26/22 at 8:47 am to Niner
Yahoo finance
We are not even at peak inflation! Food, energy and basic goods inflation hasn't even stabilized, much less gone down.
A recession is all but a certainty.
We are not even at peak inflation! Food, energy and basic goods inflation hasn't even stabilized, much less gone down.
A recession is all but a certainty.
This post was edited on 5/26/22 at 9:06 am
Posted on 5/26/22 at 11:49 am to oneg8rh8r
Reprinted from article:
Too much money is chasing too few goods—households and nonprofits have about $3 trillion more in their checking accounts than before the pandemic. To mop up that and other excess liquidity on business and other balance sheets would take perhaps four years at the pace the Fed expects to sell Treasury and mortgage-backed securities.
We face the danger that Powell will bend to White House pressure to help re-elect President Joe Biden, as Chairman Arthur Burns did for President Richard Nixon and ultimately unleashed double-digit inflation.
This market is controlled by the Federal Reserve system.
They may decide not to increase rates or they may decide to take it slow to help Biden.
But I don’t think they are going to do the right thing.
Too much money is chasing too few goods—households and nonprofits have about $3 trillion more in their checking accounts than before the pandemic. To mop up that and other excess liquidity on business and other balance sheets would take perhaps four years at the pace the Fed expects to sell Treasury and mortgage-backed securities.
We face the danger that Powell will bend to White House pressure to help re-elect President Joe Biden, as Chairman Arthur Burns did for President Richard Nixon and ultimately unleashed double-digit inflation.
This market is controlled by the Federal Reserve system.
They may decide not to increase rates or they may decide to take it slow to help Biden.
But I don’t think they are going to do the right thing.
Posted on 5/26/22 at 11:55 am to davidsheroes
quote:
Experts say tech stocks’ recent collapse won’t be the key instigator of a recession like it was in 2000, however. Instead, the Fed’s attempts to fight nearly four-decade high inflation are expected to be the main source of economic pain. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates twice this year, once by a quarter-point in March and again by a half-point in May, and it’s likely to continue increasing rates throughout the year. That could be bad news for both Wall Street and Main Street. “The punchbowl can't be sipped from for forever,” Ball said, invoking the famous metaphor coined by former Fed chair William McChesney Martin, who served from 1951 to 1970. “With inflation now running very hot and not being transitory, the Fed will raise rates to crush inflation. It'll be doing the right thing, but that is probably what is going to cause a recession,” he added. The idea that the Fed will likely be the culprit if a recession does come is now a widespread belief on Wall Street. Even former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Randal Quarles said the central bank will struggle to engineer a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy—where inflation is reigned in, but economic growth continues.
Posted on 5/26/22 at 8:25 pm to davidsheroes
It is what I thought- the call has been made. The feds May drop all interest rate hikes. Article - feds May have done all that they will do
Posted on 5/26/22 at 8:35 pm to davidsheroes
That article doesn’t say what you think it says.
Posted on 5/26/22 at 8:41 pm to slackster
What do you think it says? I read it as the Fed reserve may decide to hold off on interest take hikes.
Posted on 5/26/22 at 8:56 pm to davidsheroes
quote:
What do you think it says? I read it as the Fed reserve may decide to hold off on interest take hikes.
It’s someone’s opinion that maybe they should. It’s not the Fed saying this. In fact, the latest minute release from the Fed suggests the opposite. They hint at being more aggressive with interest rate hikes.
Posted on 5/26/22 at 9:01 pm to davidsheroes
quote:
What do you think it says? I read it as the Fed reserve may decide to hold off on interest take hikes.
It’s an opinion piece from a guy who’s saying the Fed could/should stop because they’ve done what they need to do.
The chance they do anything lower than .25% in June is 0. Same with July. Hell, anything less than .50% each meeting would be a shock. I’ll bump the thread accordingly.
Posted on 5/26/22 at 9:05 pm to slackster
How much of a chance do you see them raising it .75 at the next meeting?
Posted on 5/26/22 at 11:05 pm to davidsheroes
There is ZERO chance that they won't hike interest rates. We are going to see them actually push for even more interest rate hikes this year than they have even announced.
They are going to announce that they will be pushing for at least two more 50 basis point increases in addition to the ones they have already announced before the end of the year.
They are going to announce that they will be pushing for at least two more 50 basis point increases in addition to the ones they have already announced before the end of the year.
This post was edited on 5/26/22 at 11:08 pm
Posted on 5/26/22 at 11:42 pm to Realityintheface
quote:
How much of a chance do you see them raising it .75 at the next meeting?
With what we know at the moment, anything more/less than .50 at June and July would be pretty surprising.
Posted on 5/28/22 at 12:01 pm to slackster
quote:
With what we know at the moment, anything more/less than .50 at June and July would be pretty surprising.
I agree. The market seems to have priced in the “fittys” and anything other than that would be very surprising.
Posted on 5/28/22 at 12:08 pm to davidsheroes
quote:
The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates twice this year, once by a quarter-point in March and again by a half-point in May, and it’s likely to continue increasing rates throughout the year
wait, you read that as the Fed holding off raising rates?
Posted on 5/29/22 at 10:41 am to Jag_Warrior
Which market?
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