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re: Official CryptoTalk Thread
Posted on 1/13/25 at 2:12 pm to I Love Bama
Posted on 1/13/25 at 2:12 pm to I Love Bama
quote:$125-150k peak
What price do you see BTC at this year?
Could be my 2 bear market PTSD pessimism kicking in tho
0
Posted on 1/13/25 at 2:50 pm to 98eagle
Hey, 98 - do you hold BITX overnight sometimes?
I ask because of this statement on their parent company's site:
I assume it's not a problem to hold overnight; just curious if you know of any drawbacks with doing so.
ETA: I sold just before market close for 51.43 on a 48.91 basis. Did more research after posting this. The daily resetting adds a risk of decay if held for more than a day.
I ask because of this statement on their parent company's site:
quote:
The 2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF (Ticker: BITX) is a leveraged Bitcoin-linked ETF that seeks to provide daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to two times (2x) the return of Bitcoin for a single day, not for any other period.
The Fund presents different risks than other types of funds. The Fund is not suitable for all investors and should be used only by knowledgeable investors who understand the consequences of seeking daily leveraged (2x) investment results, including the impact of compounding on Fund performance.
I assume it's not a problem to hold overnight; just curious if you know of any drawbacks with doing so.
ETA: I sold just before market close for 51.43 on a 48.91 basis. Did more research after posting this. The daily resetting adds a risk of decay if held for more than a day.
This post was edited on 1/13/25 at 3:12 pm
Posted on 1/13/25 at 4:34 pm to Naked Bootleg
quote:
Hey, 98 - do you hold BITX overnight sometimes?
I assume it's not a problem to hold overnight; just curious if you know of any drawbacks with doing so.
I hold some BITX almost all the time in several volatility trades that I usually have open at any given time.
For 2024, I recently calculated that BITX lost approximately 2.25% per month in futures decay. Each trade set I had this past year probably averaged being open 8 days. So on average across numerous trades this year, I bought BITX with cash, held it for 8 days and then sold it when Bitcoin recovered above my sell point.
With that said, I currently have two stacks of BITX that I bought mid December that still have significant unrealized losses. I will hold them until Bitcoin recovers above $107K and I have the profits that I want on those two trades. So I don't mind holding BITX at all. In fact, I am plenty bullish on Bitcoin in 2025, so I am probably going to buy another stack of BITX to hold longer term until Bitcoin finishes a nice parabolic run at some point.
Here's a snapshot of some Year-To-Date data I took about an hour before Friday's market close on December 27th and I haven't updated it to exact end of year data, but it should be close:
Bitcoin + 117%
IBIT + 101.58%
FBTC + 101.81%
BITO (reinvesting dividends) + 110.36%
BITO (share price only) + 8.21%
BITX + 170.44%
Notes:
1. None of the Bitcoin Spot ETFs or 1X derivative (BITO) are keeping up with Bitcoin's YTD % gain. However, they are still outstanding for retirement and brokerage accounts to hold and accumulate as they still fairly closely track Bitcoin.
2. BITO (1X Bitcoin derivative) has earned about 7% more than the Spot Bitcoin ETFs year to date as long as you reinvested it's large dividends. Add 1.5% to IBIT and FBTC ETF year to date gains because they didn't start trading until 1/11/24 and Bitcoin rose approximately 1.5% between 12/31/23 through 1/10/24.
3. BITO should only be held and traded in IRAs, 401Ks and HSAs or similar accounts. It is a mistake in my opinion to hold or trade BITO in a taxable Brokerage account because you have to pay significant taxes on large ordinary dividends in the tax year you earn the dividends. You'd be better off holding a Bitcoin Spot ETF in a taxable Brokerage account in my opinion.
4. BITX (2X Bitcoin derivative) is not earning 2X Year to Date because of futures decay. It is great for short term volatility trading. In short trading periods (like a month or less) you can get 2X performance. Over time, the gains from long term held BITX will decay some.
This post was edited on 1/13/25 at 4:40 pm
Posted on 1/13/25 at 5:36 pm to Buck_Rogers
quote:
So far, the BITO and BITX volatility trades have been working out well for me. I'm thinking about starting the same strategy with Ethereum during this downward turn of the cycle, but I'm not sure which ETF's would be the best. Do you have any recommendations?
I only trade between cash, BITX and BITO. However, the whole premise of my current volatility trades is to buy a 2X derivative (BITX) with cash on a Bitcoin pullback, sell the 2X derivative when Bitcoin recovers, recover my initial cash and put the gains in more BITO shares.
Earlier in 2024, on any significant enough Bitcoin pullback or dip, I was selling BITO and using those funds to buy BITX, and then reversing the trade upon Bitcoin's recovery. So I ended up with more BITO shares than I started with. That worked well, but I realized I could double my gains trading between BITX and Cash instead of between BITX and BITO. I could kick myself for not realizing this earlier since I was already holding considerable cash in my accounts. Still did great, but I could have made twice as much by putting my cash to work.
The whole premise of the way I trade should easily work for any equity that has both a 1X and a 2X derivative or ETF.
So you could use the same strategy trading Nvidia (NVDA) and it's 2X ETF (NVDL). I just like trading BITX and BITO because Bitcoin has had nice volatility. I could just as easily put my gains in FBTC or IBIT, but based on my investigation, I see that BITO slightly outearns the Spot ETFs if I reinvest BITO's large dividends. However, If I were trading in a taxable Brokerage account, I would put my gains in FBTC or IBIT because I wouldn't want to pay end of year taxes on very large ordinary BITO dividends.
I'm not sure Nvidia has the same volatility. It might, but I haven't checked. Ethereum would likely have good volatility. My only question about Ethereum is does it have good liquidity and tight bid/ask spreads. BITX, BITO and even the Spot Bitcoin ETFs all have great liquidity as I can quickly make all of my trades and the bid/ask spread on all of them is usually a couple of cents or less.
If Ethereum has a 2X ETF or 2X derivative, the same strategy should work. Any equity that has multiple 1X and multiple 2X choices, just compare their historical earnings to see which one you prefer. Also look at the bid/ask spread and liquidity of both the 1X and 2X components of your trades.
Good volatility, good liquidity and tight bid/ask spreads are ideal.
This post was edited on 1/13/25 at 6:19 pm
Posted on 1/14/25 at 9:05 pm to 98eagle
2.82 Xrp 
This post was edited on 1/15/25 at 4:18 am
Posted on 1/15/25 at 3:56 pm to jefforize
$3.06 XRP
Posted on 1/15/25 at 5:47 pm to TechDawg2007
$3.19
Crazy heater this one is on.
Finally found a new top at 3.2 for this evening. Down to 3.04.
Crazy heater this one is on.
Finally found a new top at 3.2 for this evening. Down to 3.04.
This post was edited on 1/15/25 at 6:20 pm
Posted on 1/15/25 at 6:19 pm to jefforize
Sounds like the appeal brief just dropped. Price coming down a tad but likely to hold around $3 with this already being baked in
Posted on 1/15/25 at 6:29 pm to jcaz
Still can’t wrap my mind around this Ripple craze.
Posted on 1/15/25 at 6:53 pm to jefforize
Y'all done real good on XRP. I'm happy for y'all.
Posted on 1/15/25 at 7:49 pm to BottomlandBrew
Congrats to the folks who got in and rode out the SEC storm.
Posted on 1/15/25 at 8:17 pm to METAL
quote:
Still can’t wrap my mind around this Ripple craze.
I believe enough in it to put $1000 last month. Now let’s see if Trump will actually follow thru on his promises with crypto.
Posted on 1/16/25 at 6:35 am to jcaz
I remember all the zealots saying XRP was a dumb buy
My average is $.50
I’m up huge
Suck it
My average is $.50
I’m up huge
Suck it
Posted on 1/16/25 at 7:46 am to Delacroix22
Anything can go up, Fartcoin is a great example.
Posted on 1/16/25 at 1:31 pm to TigerTatorTots
XRP 3.36
Been holding mine since single digits...
Been holding mine since single digits...
Posted on 1/16/25 at 3:44 pm to Locoguan0
the way btc just cracks 100k with ease from a 92-93k lull is interesting, i'll say...
Posted on 1/16/25 at 7:18 pm to The Egg
even more impressive is fear/greed index is still below 60 on cmc.
The next leg up could be delayed by macro events but it possible any day now.
The next leg up could be delayed by macro events but it possible any day now.
Posted on 1/16/25 at 7:25 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:
Anything can go up, Fartcoin is a great example.
I’m always amazed that people will bash XRP without understanding even the basic utility of it. This isn’t a meme coin pump. It’s a ton of liquidity from institutional investors flowing in and it’s just the start.
Posted on 1/16/25 at 7:26 pm to Locoguan0
quote:
XRP 3.36 Been holding mine since single digits...
Got in at 76¢ and in for the long haul.
Posted on 1/16/25 at 7:55 pm to Tesla
quote:
This isn’t a meme coin pump. It’s a ton of liquidity from institutional investors flowing in and it’s just the start.
Why though? I haven't had someone explain to me why its the 3rd largest coin now. Whats the elevator pitch? What is the coin itself used for in the payments network?
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