re: Official CryptoTalk Thread

I don’t think crypto winter will ever be all that dramatic ever again. On a 10% dip, institutions will buy more.

Some of you cats may be stepping into the realm of irrational exuberance. And I say that as someone that is about as pro crypto at the core as you can get.

1. The legacy financial system isn't going down without a fight.
2. Same for governments and government backed fiat.

There are many ways that governments can make crypto such a pain in the arse to use that most won't bother. Ultimately, people will have to decide which economic system they want to use. And some may have to actually fight for it.

There are so many ways all of this can go down that can't be addressed in a post. It will take years to decades for it all play out.

I say all of this as a warning to those talking about going "all in" on crypto with their net worth. That is insane in my opinion. Look at it as an expected value calculation on your life.

Consider all of the possibilities of how things could play out and the probability of each actually occurring. Then consider what your personal situation would be for different mixes of crypto vs traditional in each scario.

Imo, going all in on either side is illogical.

It garners a lot of attention now for obvious reasons, a lot money has been and is being poured into it. Whatever amount people already had in it (of have put in it in recently) is increasing, at the moment, way more than most other investments. In some ways, the liquidity of the market worldwide is very attractive. This may be cause of concern for some governments across the globe. Whatever steps taken (regulatory wise) could easily cause a lot of damage to a regulating country to put themselves at disadvantage if the wrong path is taken, especially since new rules adds even more complexity. A lot of it seems to be a wait and see approach, for now. There appear to be a lot financial models that incentivize the increase of wealth which benefit the entire governance of the holders in Crypto which is not really seem to be occurring in traditional banking for example. However, a lot more than just new banking models are being innovated in many different industries in Crytpo as well.

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Ultimately, people will have to decide which economic system they want to use.

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or just use both

finance is not going to be that different for us in the usa. save in crypto, spend in dollars. simple enough

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Expecting next crypto winter by late fall so will be taking a fair amount of profits in September-October timeframe. But maybe this winter downside won't be so vicious this cycle given the institutional buy-ins.

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You can now buy protective puts affordably, so that's an option if you want to keep the asset, and preserve gains.

A broader answer is the above response is just one more way FedGov slowly accepts BTC, and somewhat blesses it.

Gensler is a pretty smart guy. He is a regulator, so this needs to be factored in, and he bases his regulation on his political beliefs, but for purposes of this post, and BTC, that's a mixed bag. Largely he understands BTC better than most in government, and largely this is going to open things up quite a lot.

For one, when we have an actual BTC ETF money is going to pour in to, and out of BTC like we've not seen before. Gensler is going to do this. And ironically, do a bunch of liberal shite that makes BTC more so than ever the new gold.

The people scared of outright ownership somehow think GBTC is a safe alternative. It's not, and trades at a premium as high as 30% of its NAV.

When my banker at my community bank is talking about the above, it's real. It needs to be said my bank is a pretty smart group of people, unlike some (not all) bankers and Fed worshippers that post on MB.

To not own BTC at this point as part of a prudent asset allocation portfolio is foolish. It just cracks me up when people talk about a balanced portfolio, and when you dig further, it is 100% stocks, and somehow they would like me to willingly suspend disbelief and buy into this nonsense. Much like buy and hold gets misinterpreted. It was never buy and hold, it's always been buy, hold, rebalance and rotate. We see this on here daily as the equity market is essentially rotating, and people are too heavy into tech.

Buy, hold, and get led to slaughter.

Own 100% stocks into retirement, and no other asset classes, and risk the same.

Some would say this is crazy talk. I would say this is at its essence, one of the most conservative investment philosophies you'll read on MB. Boring stuff.

I did sell ETH, and my instinct going forward is that BTC has already been picked the winner. I would hope at some point there will be an easier way to buy a "basket" of BTC, ETH, Alts, etc. More diversification, and eventually this will be easier to do and manage than it is now. At some point it will be common for AI's to be giving us the perfect Crypto currency portfolio, balanced and everything. Talk about late the the game. Eventually even Edward Jones will have a list. A highly commissionable list, but a list.

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The people scared of outright ownership somehow think GBTC is a safe alternative. It's not, and trades at a premium as high as 30% of its NAV.

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FWIW - GTBC premium has been negative for over a month and hasn't touched 30% in over 3 months

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I did sell ETH, and my instinct going forward is that BTC has already been picked the winner. I would hope at some point there will be an easier way to buy a "basket" of BTC, ETH, Alts, etc. More diversification, and eventually this will be easier to do and manage than it is now. At some point it will be common for AI's to be giving us the perfect Crypto currency portfolio, balanced and everything.

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I think you're just talking about two different assets in ETH and BTC. BTC is king and store of value while ETH is a new financial ecosystem. Both have scaling issues that will take forever to figure out, but both have tremendous adoption and first-mover advantages that are carrying them...IMO.

If I'm not mistaken, the diversified products you are looking for already exist and I think some might even have AI associated with them, they just don't exist on the traditional exchanges. If I run across some of them, I'll post them on here. May take a few more steps to set up than what you are looking for though.

LINK

can now buy tesla tokens on binance which represents a fully backed shares

Is there any difference between using binance vs binance.us?

Bnb is godzilla, eth is king kong