re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company

I need 100% gain in all my ai stocks just to break even. If I ever get that chance I’m out and not looking back.

quote:

---

I need 100% gain in all my ai stocks just to break even. If I ever get that chance I’m out and not looking back.

---

This is my view: the whole anti-AI sentiment/AI bubble has been like a short report, except for the entire sector. Someone said yesterday, that it is not organic, and they were right. None of it makes sense, unless you're in institutional investor who is taking advantage of the notion that there is an AI bubble happening.

Their whole objective is to drive down stocks in the AI sector and squeeze people out. Once the retail investors get out, they will jump in and buy and the stock will go up. This one got multiplied, because investors don't see huge dividends from all of the AI investment, so they believe that it is a bubble, just like the dot.com bubble.

For reasons I've already gone through, I'm going to wait this one out, and hopefully, it will pay off.

NBIS is not going you zero. HGRAF, on the other hand....

Stock is up pre-market. I dont put much faith in that. While I think it it will turn around, I'm not banking on it happening this year (2025).

quote:

---

why are you thinking so short termed? Reading today m massive investment in AI in next 5 years

---

I'm not. I've stated within the past few days that I'm in for the long term and will not sell until after I'm able to sell at the long term capital gains rate.

A lot of people are getting out. Some are taking profits and others got in AFTER the MSFT deal and this stock has been painful.

That massive investment is why this isn't a bubble. That is why it is going to turn around, UNLESS the investment slows/stops. As a country, it is a matter of national security that we get to AGI before China, so I can't see that happening. In order for it to happen, companies like NBIS need to be able to make money. That will drive the stock back up.

If you had told me back in May, when bought my first position for about $30, that this stock would be $150/share by May of 2026, I would have been ecstatic. Are you kidding me? a 500% profit in a year?

Here we are at $75, or halfway to $150, and everyone is saying the sky is falling, in spite of the fact that management has exceeded expectations and guidance at every step along the way, so far. The company is still extremely well run and the demand is still incredibly high.

The only thing that has changed is the AI sentiment, which I believe, is artificially generated in order to drive the stock price down, temporarily. I could be wrong, but I don't think so.

Genesis project includes Coreweave, but not Nebius...

Im not sure anyone knows what it really means at this point.

I'd like to see them make graphene a major part of the standard data center...

I dont think data center sentiment will change overnight. I would like to see a gradual climb with an occasional spike throughout 2026. A Clickhouse IPO and guidance to profitability will probably get people's attention. The bottom line e is that they need to overcome the idea that they are borrowing so much that they can't possibly ever make a profit...

That makes me scared. BC they aren't buying at $130+/share

Season's Greetings fellas!

Do not trust this move one fricking bit unless we can break through $104.

If you are thinking short term and ok with selling for tax purposes and all, I would sell some into the move up.

The $64 gap may still fill as I believe we are still in a downtrend unless we reclaim $104. There is no logical reason for that gap to fill, but we were at $75 earlier this week and it could happen. So if you are short term, keep that in the back of your mind.

If you are long term, ALL of this is accumulation zone as we are deeply undervalued for the future.


-------------




If you needed any reassurance or a bit of a review for first time investors, Jax has held it down quite well.
But here's some more. I wrote a bunch of shite and ran it through Grok for organization.

Nebius Group (NBIS) Investment Overview

Company Background
Nebius Group is an Amsterdam-based AI infrastructure company, spun out from the international assets of Yandex (formerly known as the "Google of Russia") in 2024 following a $5.4 billion divestment of its Russian operations. Founded by Arkady Volozh (who previously scaled Yandex to a ~$30 billion valuation), Nebius operates data centers across Europe, Israel, and the US. It resumed Nasdaq trading in October 2024 without a traditional IPO roadshow. The CEO states that he got a call on Friday and they were trading by Monday morning!

Core Business
Nebius is a full-stack AI infrastructure provider, offering large-scale Nvidia GPU clusters, cloud platforms, developer tools, and services. It serves AI startups (e.g., Black Forest Labs, Cursor), enterprises (e.g., Shopify, Cloudflare), and hyperscalers (see below).
Key differentiators include vertical integration, cost efficiencies, and in-house software layering on bare-metal GPU rentals.
Emphasis on cost efficiencies!
Software aside, It's all about revenue per MW of power.

Major Contracts
Microsoft (September 2025): Multi-year deal worth $17.4 billion (up to $19.4 billion with options) over five years for dedicated GPU capacity from its NJ data center (near completion). This was Microsoft's largest such contract at the time and caused shares to surge ~50%.
Meta (November 2025): ~$3 billion deal over five years for AI infrastructure. Sold all of the available compute that they had. Otherwise, it would have been a much bigger deal. This is highlighted in the Q3 call.
These contracts provide strong revenue visibility, primarily from bare-metal GPU rentals, with management viewing them as mere funding for higher-margin software and cloud services.

Financial Guidance and Performance
2026 ARR guidance: $7–9 billion (a significant ramp from expected $900 million–$1.1 billion ARR by end-2025).
Revenue from hyperscaler deals alone is expected to contribute substantially to this, with total group revenue potentially higher including software. MSFT + META deals alone should yield 4.1bn with a completed build out. They have been expanding rapidly.
The company is capital-intensive (2025 CapEx raised to ~$5 billion) but targets 20–30% margins long-term as it scales responsibly.

Non-Core Assets (Sum-of-the-Parts Upside)
Nebius retained several high-potential businesses from the Yandex split, often undervalued in the current market cap (~$19–20 billion as of late 2025):
~28% stake in ClickHouse: Open-source database leader (used by Tesla, Meta, etc.). Recent funding valued it at ~$6 billion, implying Nebius' stake worth ~$1.7 billion.
Majority economic interest in Toloka: AI data labeling platform (recently backed by Jeff Bezos).
Full ownership of Avride: Autonomous driving and robot delivery company, operating on US university campuses and cities (partnerships with Uber, Hyundai). Potential valuation $3–6 billion or higher with growth.
Full ownership of TripleTen: Edtech/AI bootcamp platform.
Conservative sum-of-the-parts for non-core assets: ~$6–8 billion (or more with future liquidity events like IPOs).

Peers and Valuation Context
Key peers: CoreWeave (private, $38 billion valuation), IREN ($11 billion market cap).
The entire sector has cooled off for a variety of reasons (that we can get into), but I'd argue that Nebius in particular trades at a hefty discount despite higher growth trajectory, a much cleaner balance sheet, better cost efficiencies, and truly elite engineering talent and management. The other companies are converted bitcoin miners, and I have little doubt that we will see quite the differentiation by 2030.

Analyst Coverage
Limited but growing (~6 firms). Consensus "Strong Buy" with average price target ~$155–165 (implying significant upside from current levels). Goldman Sachs initiated in July 2025 with Buy/$68 (now $155).
Other recent Developments
December 2024: $700 million funding round led by Nvidia and Accel (post-split validation).
Ongoing capacity expansion: Targeting 2.5 GW contracted power by end-2026, compared to previous '26 GW expansion goals of 1 GW. Astounding. This shocked everyone when they announced it during the Q3 call.
Investment Thesis Summary
Nebius appears undervalued when factoring multi-billion hyperscaler backlog, rapid ARR growth, execution track record (from Yandex heritage), and non-core asset optionality. Management emphasizes hyperscaler deals as a "means to an end" for building a software-driven AI cloud platform, with long-term potential as a major hyperscaler (hundreds of billions in market cap not unrealistic if execution continues). Early investors benefited from low awareness and lingering (now subsided) concerns over Russian roots.

Interviews (Marc is the man!):
LINK
LINK
LINK

$250 BY END OF YEAR 2026

Welcome back, BB88! Thanks for the updates. We missed your input. I hope you come back more often, especially as this thing picks up some momentum.

I still believe this is a great stock to own, BUT, I am looking long term and I said earlier that I believe this will be in the $150 range by May. That's almost doubling between now and then, which is a helluva return. I like your prediction of $250 by the end of the year. That is why I have been posting so positively in this thread.

I can feel the sentiment start to switch. There have been some articles where analysts are starting to say that the debt concern over data centers as a whole was overblown.

That's the good news. The bad news is that it definitely won't be a straight line from here to $150/$250, although I hope it stabalizes a bit as the valuation goes up. There will be great and awful weeks/months in between now and then. Hell, there will great and awful mornings and afternoons.

One thing for sure, this stock doesn't move slowly. The pendulum swings in wide arcs with this one.