re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company

Daaaaam...
Same firm slapped a $150 on NBIS

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Good write up on X

X link


JUST IN — $NBIS NEW rough ARR-based valuation and Nebius 12 month PRICE TARGET:

CALCULATION:

Confirmed on Q3 call, next month Nebius will achieve Guidance of 1B ARR without counting the Microsoft deal. They have on the Q3 call today announced a new 3B deal with META and issued new guidance for 7-9B ARR by end of 2026. Arkady has a history of being conservative with guidance and under promising and overdelivering. Nevertheless I will assume the midpoint case of 8B. Note that this rate of growth 1B-8B ARR YoY from end of 2025 to end of 2026 would be 700% and at this scale would be unprecedented in the history of the stock market. A rate of growth this high tends to command the highest end multiple that hyperscalers/clouds have commanded such as 20X+. Per Grok with this level of growth “the implied ARR multiple for valuation would likely fall in the 18x–28x range.” But I will be more conservative and use a much lower 12X multiple here.

At 12X 8B ARR we get $96 Billion valuation.

Now to consider cash and subsidiaries:

Cash=1.68B + 1B raised via new shares + 2.75B raised conv bonds = $5.4B cash

Subsidiaries TripleTen and Toloka 1B, Avride 4B (Motional, Wayve peer comps) + 28% ClickHouse stake currently 1.7B= $6.7B (note that I believe this $6.7B to be very conservative due to new estimates of ClickHouse value as they have grown rapidly since this valuation and are now moving toward IPO.

Total value of all cash and subsidiaries: $12.1B

This is a capex intensive business so to be more conservative here, I will simply assign ZERO VALUE for all the cash and all the subsidiaries and treat all $12.1B to be future capex.

Total value = $96B with roughly 250M shares outstanding (which includes the shares sold at $92.50 from the recent equity raise) or roughly $215 per share.

To account for Future share dilution I will add roughly 22,700,000 more shares (by assuming full dilution from the recent convertible bond sale) and add another additional 25,000,000 optional shares announced on today’s Q3 call. Note that this latest 25M is optional and management indicated will only be issued as needed with respect for dilution and maximizing shareholder value. But to be more conservative here I will add all 25M.

So 96B with roughly 297,700,00 shares outstanding equates to a stock price of roughly $322 per share.

CONCLUSION:

Nebius TARGET PRICE (12 months): $322 per share, a roughly 212% upside from the current stock price of around $103 per share

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Good write up on X

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Yup. I like Mark.

After listening in to that earnings call, I wouldn’t get too wrapped up into share price movement. If you’re gambling options, that’s different. Manage your risk so as to not to blow yourself up and miss out on a solid long term bet in the common shares.

But if you are investing in Nebius for the long term as a dominant player in AI infra, well, I’m not sure there’s a much better spot to be.

The demand is relentless. A freight train of potential revenue and only limited by Nebius’ ability to bring compute online. It would take a complete and unexpected collapse in AI sentiment to derail the business and even then I don’t believe it would destroy the company in the long term.

I’m not sure what the price of the stock will be day to day, but I’m happy to accumulate significantly more if we see weakness.

Very interested in the non-core businesses they have. Would like to see them go deeper there on future EC’s.

I’m nothing here. Just passing along how I’m seeing things after hearing from the team who’s doing the real work.

Here’s hoping some $165 price targets move the needle.
We’ve invested all we reasonably can in shares.

It’s a new day fellas!

Screw Micheal Burry.

Let’s go!

Good things happen when you drink heavily.

I’ve seen it happen!

Today is 115.

Wow.

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