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re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company
Posted on 10/9/25 at 11:17 pm to 13SaintTiger
Posted on 10/9/25 at 11:17 pm to 13SaintTiger
I’ve always said that roughly $140 is fair post MSFT deal.
However, earnings are in a few weeks so you never know.
1-3 year outlook is $250 to $450 based on revenue per megawatt at 8-15x P/S multiple.
However, earnings are in a few weeks so you never know.
1-3 year outlook is $250 to $450 based on revenue per megawatt at 8-15x P/S multiple.
1
Posted on 10/10/25 at 12:29 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
I’ve always said that roughly $140 is fair post MSFT deal.
Clickhouse news could drive this up.
Another hyperscaler contract could drive this up.
Posted on 10/10/25 at 5:30 am to bayoubengals88
Let's shoot for another all time high folks.
Posted on 10/10/25 at 5:53 am to Jax-Tiger
quote:Absolutely. Nothing is off the table through eoy.
Clickhouse news could drive this up. Another hyperscaler contract could drive this up.
$200 is on the table.
I was just trying to analyze if it’s a “buy” now. Yes. I think most would agree that it’s a buy.
Posted on 10/10/25 at 6:32 am to bayoubengals88
I’m curious to see if we get our usual pop and then morning dump. I’d like to add a little more if we do because I wouldn’t be shocked to see a steady climb into earnings.
The question is how exposed do we want to be on the report date? I’m thinking of holding my 11/21s but have some dry powder just in case something goes sideways. I got burned on MU when they blew out every metric but the stock still fell because they didn’t blow it out enough. It’s since bounced back.
The question is how exposed do we want to be on the report date? I’m thinking of holding my 11/21s but have some dry powder just in case something goes sideways. I got burned on MU when they blew out every metric but the stock still fell because they didn’t blow it out enough. It’s since bounced back.
Posted on 10/10/25 at 6:44 am to SquatchDawg
quote:Always the question isn’t it…
The question is how exposed do we want to be on the report date?
Assuming I successfully roll out all my CCs today and get to keep my shares:
I will probably convert 1/5 of those shares to LEAPS, 1/5 to cash, roll half of my 11/21s to March, and keep the other half as is.
Sound like a plan??
Posted on 10/10/25 at 6:44 am to SquatchDawg
quote:
I’m curious to see if we get our usual pop and then morning dump. I’d like to add a little more if we do because I wouldn’t be shocked to see a steady climb into earnings.
Definitely going to get a morning jump….probably be at a new ATH within the first minute of trading. I would expect a pullback at some point, but this thing will test $140 IMO.
I’m going to try and make another play on a big jump and look for that pullback again…not guaranteed though depending on how she looks
quote:
The question is how exposed do we want to be on the report date? I’m thinking of holding my 11/21s but have some dry powder just in case something goes sideways.
I’m 100% bullish on these earnings. Basically, it would be tough to miss based on their ARR and continued rise. I’m expecting a big beat, but more importantly, the conference call. We are going to hear some really amazing things.
If you’re concerned, you can always straddle your calls. Buy some calls 20% above the price a month out and puts 15% below the price 2 weeks out
Posted on 10/10/25 at 6:52 am to bayoubengals88
What xdate are you looking to for your LEAPS where there’s volume? I haven’t looked past December.
Posted on 10/10/25 at 6:52 am to IT_Dawg
If my 11/21 $130s go up 20% I’m selling.
Looking to re enter 11/21 $150s with higher quantity.
Looking to re enter 11/21 $150s with higher quantity.
Posted on 10/10/25 at 6:54 am to SquatchDawg
quote:There’s not a ton, but there’s enough. I like Jan 2027 $170
What xdate are you looking to for your LEAPS where there’s volume?
Posted on 10/10/25 at 7:10 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
If my 11/21 $130s go up 20% I’m selling.
Looking to re enter 11/21 $150s with higher quantity.
Solid play…but earlier you said you were getting conservative ;)
Posted on 10/10/25 at 7:10 am to IT_Dawg
My overall option exposure to NBIS is that much % wise so I may just trade on a significant beat but keep everything outside 11/21 just in case there’s a brief pullback. That’ll give at least 3 weeks for a rebound if needed.
My 11/21 130c are looking juicy right now so I like BB88’s idea of rolling to 150c if we get a good spike.
My 11/21 130c are looking juicy right now so I like BB88’s idea of rolling to 150c if we get a good spike.
Posted on 10/10/25 at 7:13 am to SquatchDawg
If they would announce earnings date, that would be great so I can play around that. If they do announce October 30, I’m rolling my 10/31 130s into 10/31 150s or maybe higher depending where we sit.
If it’s Nov 6 earnings date, I’m going to start looking into the 11/14 exp date
If it’s Nov 6 earnings date, I’m going to start looking into the 11/14 exp date
Posted on 10/10/25 at 7:15 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
There’s not a ton, but there’s enough. I like Jan 2027 $170
What was the premium that you paid on these per contract?
Posted on 10/10/25 at 7:22 am to Covingtontiger77
Fidelity is showing @ $40 for Jan 170c. So you could sell around 30 shares to get 3x leverage into next year. That’s the way I see it anyway.
Posted on 10/10/25 at 7:27 am to IT_Dawg
Do we know what the current guidance is? Fidelity is showing a number that has to be dated…ie significantly less than last qtr.
Posted on 10/10/25 at 7:36 am to PeteRose
quote:
So let me get this. The cost of each contract is $1200 and if the price gets over $142 before expiration date you get to make a profit? So when you exercise the option, you get the net proceeds or do you have to actually buy the stock at the strike price and then sell it at the current price? Sorry all this is new to me but interesting.
You don't have to hit the strike price + premium to make money. I have a perfect example in my own portfolio, right now.
I have 10 contracts I purchased on 9/25/2025 with a strike price of $150 and an expiration date of MARCH 20th, 2026 - over 5 months from now. I bought it 2 weeks ago with a premium price of $15.60. At the time, the price of NBIS stock was around $108.
I could sell those contracts today for $27.60, or for a 76% profit. I do not have to wait to excercise the option, I can sell the options, themselves. BB88 and IT_Dawg buy these options all the time and have NO intention of exercising the option and buying the actual stock. They are trading the options, only.
As you can see, I am no where near the strike price of $150 (plus premium), but because my expiration day is so far in the future, I'm on track to make a profit.
I am already at a $12K+ profit, even though I'm about $33 short of the goal price of $150 + $15.60. That's because I have 5 months, 2 earnings reports, and, in all likelihood, another hyperscaler contract. Needless to say, I am in excellent shape with this contract, but I will probably sell this right after the earnings report at the end of this month and buy another similar contract (or two).
If I was in trouble and in the red with a contract that was approaching it's expiration date, I would "roll" the contract into another contract that was further into the future, with a higher strike price, rather than get stuck holding an expired contract. That way, you can at least salvage some of your premium.
If I had bought the stock, I would have made a 20% profit, as it stands. Because I bought the options, I am in line to make a 76% profit. Options can greatly increase your profits. Beware, the opposite is true. The stock will always have value and you can trade out of it or wait for it to bounce back. Options become worthless when they expire. You can lose most of, or all of the money you have invested. Be careful.
Posted on 10/10/25 at 7:52 am to Jax-Tiger
Also, listen to what these guys are saying, above.
Buying an option further out is more expensive, because stock growth is more predictable over time. On Monday, this stock was at $135, and by Wednesday, it was $115. Today, it may very likely reach an All Time High (ATH).
Buying for a higher strike price will bring your premium down.
They are hedging their bets on the earnings report. 11/21 is a popular date for options because it is about 3 weeks after the earnings report date (which has not been officially announced). 11/21 is good because if the earnings report isn't stellar, or the market doesn't react positively to the earnings right away, there is still some time to grow and make some profits. If the earnings report is positive, and the price shoots up, some folks are going to sell right away.
BB88 is planning to sell have of his 11/21 calls BEFORE the earnings report, based on the fact that he expects price to shoot up in the next week or so because people anticipate a good earnings report. That does not mean that he is going to miss out on the profits of the earnings report, because he is going to roll the profits into more contracts further down the road. Those will become profitable immediately, if the earnings report is stellar.
Buying an option further out is more expensive, because stock growth is more predictable over time. On Monday, this stock was at $135, and by Wednesday, it was $115. Today, it may very likely reach an All Time High (ATH).
Buying for a higher strike price will bring your premium down.
They are hedging their bets on the earnings report. 11/21 is a popular date for options because it is about 3 weeks after the earnings report date (which has not been officially announced). 11/21 is good because if the earnings report isn't stellar, or the market doesn't react positively to the earnings right away, there is still some time to grow and make some profits. If the earnings report is positive, and the price shoots up, some folks are going to sell right away.
BB88 is planning to sell have of his 11/21 calls BEFORE the earnings report, based on the fact that he expects price to shoot up in the next week or so because people anticipate a good earnings report. That does not mean that he is going to miss out on the profits of the earnings report, because he is going to roll the profits into more contracts further down the road. Those will become profitable immediately, if the earnings report is stellar.
Posted on 10/10/25 at 7:52 am to SquatchDawg
Roughly $155.7M rev and -$0.52 eps with guidance for the year at $900M-$1.1B ARR
Posted on 10/10/25 at 8:00 am to IT_Dawg
quote:ITM strikes would be too conservative
Solid play…but earlier you said you were getting conservative ;)
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