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Is the market going to have another big downturn?
Posted on 6/2/20 at 3:51 pm
Posted on 6/2/20 at 3:51 pm
After the initial collapse from COVID in late February/early March, I played it well and made some coin on the upward rebound.
But now I have to think it is over-inflated. Looking at defaults, unemployment, etc., seeing the social turmoil, and knowing there will be another wave of COVID during flu season that people will over-react to makes me think this thing is due for another big downturn.
I have taken a pretty big short position in the last week or so and obviously the market is doing well. This is scaring me
Do you think we'll have a downwards correction soon?
But now I have to think it is over-inflated. Looking at defaults, unemployment, etc., seeing the social turmoil, and knowing there will be another wave of COVID during flu season that people will over-react to makes me think this thing is due for another big downturn.
I have taken a pretty big short position in the last week or so and obviously the market is doing well. This is scaring me
Do you think we'll have a downwards correction soon?
16
Posted on 6/2/20 at 3:56 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:
and knowing there will be another wave of COVID
I'm seeing more and more articles domestically and abroad downplaying the significance,if any, of a second wave.
Posted on 6/2/20 at 4:00 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:
Is the market going to have another big downturn
Only if Huss gets banned from the board. As long as he keeps making his predictions, you should jump on the rocket ship.
Posted on 6/2/20 at 4:05 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
quote:
I'm seeing more and more articles domestically and abroad downplaying the significance,if any, of a second wave.
It'll pop during flu season, but I think it will really depend on how we react to it as a country/society. If we decide to collectively say "frick this, we're keeping it all open and vulnerable stay home" then it will be a nothing burger. But if states shut down again, that is a huge deal. Unfortunately politics will play a huge role in this.
But that is still just one piece of the puzzle. The fundamentals do not support the current market explosion. Like, at all.
Posted on 6/2/20 at 4:06 pm to TheCaterpillar
I went very conservative yesterday and today...but I have a short term time frame..
If I were five or more years out.. i would stay full invested.
The biggest issue is the November elections imho.
If I were five or more years out.. i would stay full invested.
The biggest issue is the November elections imho.
Posted on 6/2/20 at 4:10 pm to TheCaterpillar
Only if Trump loses in November. If not it’s going to be unprecedented growth again. 33k dow by the end of his 8th year
Posted on 6/2/20 at 4:38 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:Majority of these guys think it will
Is the market going to have another big downturn?
Posted on 6/2/20 at 5:04 pm to TheCaterpillar
I'm nervous about the second quarter earnings reports. The shut down happened later in the first quarter, so the second quarter earnings will take a bigger hit than the first for many companies. I know there's some room for lower earnings baked in, but I'm wondering how the market will react to the reports.
This post was edited on 6/2/20 at 5:13 pm
Posted on 6/2/20 at 5:13 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:
But if states shut down again, that is a huge deal. Unfortunately politics will play a huge role in this.
A lot of people were seeing it for the overreaction it was, and people were starting to starting to actively push back. Now that everyone's got into the mindset that we're opening, I think it would be real difficult to get the genie back in the bottle. I would think any further shutdowns would be more targeted. I think it's one of those things we're just going to have to let run its course at some point.
Posted on 6/2/20 at 6:34 pm to TheCaterpillar
the market is full of ups and downs. will be many more ups and downs.
Posted on 6/2/20 at 8:04 pm to TheCaterpillar
If you are still working and investing it shouldn’t hurt you period.
I look at the market as a way to give me additional heartache as I am retired. Still have a good pile of dough.
I look at the market as a way to give me additional heartache as I am retired. Still have a good pile of dough.
Posted on 6/2/20 at 9:10 pm to TheCaterpillar
Trump checks going to run out. Will be reflected in the anchors of the Dow.
This post was edited on 6/3/20 at 12:03 am
Posted on 6/2/20 at 9:37 pm to ldts
quote:
I'm nervous about the second quarter earnings reports. The shut down happened later in the first quarter, so the second quarter earnings will take a bigger hit than the first for many companies. I know there's some room for lower earnings baked in, but I'm wondering how the market will react to the reports.
I’ve been thinking the same thing. Most companies will see much more impact to the Q2 earnings than they did in Q1. Using Dow Chemical‘s EPS as an example, just because I happened to look at a research report on them earlier:
Q4 ‘19 - 0.78
Q1 ‘20 - 0.58
Q2 ‘20 - 0.10 (estimated)
You can see these drastic dips in Q2 EPS estimates all across the market. Theoretically, this is all built into the current stock prices. I don’t think Dow’s stock, individually, will tank if they hit the Q2 EPS estimate. But I still wonder how the broader market will react to the cumulative effect of low Q2 earnings across the board.
OTOH, by the time Q2 earnings come out it will be kind of like crying over spilled milk. I think the dividend announcements, along with the guidance for Q3 and beyond, will really be what moves the market one way or the other.
Anyone else resisting the urge to put everything in QQQ until August?
Posted on 6/2/20 at 9:51 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:
Do you think we'll have a downwards correction soon?
I am concerned enough that I am taking some chips off the table. Raising cash.
And it isn't Covid I am worried about. The market thinks that foolishness is over. I agree with that.
Posted on 6/2/20 at 9:53 pm to TheCaterpillar
Yes. Or no.
Posted on 6/2/20 at 10:15 pm to TheCaterpillar
I wish it would but with the FED propping up the market once again it will probably continue to be a slow bleed to the upside with the occasional 5-10% correction like it's been for the most part since mid 2009. It's great for your 401k but not much fun if you like to do some trading. Particularly if you like to use options some to trade.
Give me a VIX between 50 and 80 with wild moves in both directions all the time and let the fun begin.
Give me a VIX between 50 and 80 with wild moves in both directions all the time and let the fun begin.
Posted on 6/2/20 at 10:27 pm to TheCaterpillar
GDP bleeding red. Buy buy buy.
If we get to SP 3300 I'll go all cash.
If we get to SP 3300 I'll go all cash.
Posted on 6/2/20 at 10:45 pm to TheCaterpillar
We will drop - how much, I don’t know but it will be significant.
The fed can’t keep up this pace - it has bloated 100% in a year.
We will see negative rates by q3 2021 then all bets are off - I think it will get ugly with inflationary pressure as the gasoline and corporate debt and housing debt the match.
Forbearance levels for mortgages nationwide are reaching 10%. Banks are pulling back on consumer and commercial lines of credits.
Banks are rapidly ratcheting up credit underwriting standards...too little too late.
Corporate debt will start defaulting in Q3 this year - the level of CCC and worse corp debt is staggering.
The reckoning was building up before COVID19 - COVID19 simply was a tremor before the big quake.
The fed can’t keep up this pace - it has bloated 100% in a year.
We will see negative rates by q3 2021 then all bets are off - I think it will get ugly with inflationary pressure as the gasoline and corporate debt and housing debt the match.
Forbearance levels for mortgages nationwide are reaching 10%. Banks are pulling back on consumer and commercial lines of credits.
Banks are rapidly ratcheting up credit underwriting standards...too little too late.
Corporate debt will start defaulting in Q3 this year - the level of CCC and worse corp debt is staggering.
The reckoning was building up before COVID19 - COVID19 simply was a tremor before the big quake.
Posted on 6/2/20 at 10:52 pm to KillTheGophers
quote:
it will get ugly with inflationary pressure
quote:
We will see negative rates by q3 2021
Negative rates occur when there is deflation not inflation...Posted on 6/2/20 at 11:15 pm to LSURussian
I poorly worded that
We will have negative rates by Q3 2021 then in early 2022 we will have hyperinflation.
We will have negative rates by Q3 2021 then in early 2022 we will have hyperinflation.
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