re: Is BUD a buy?

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FWIW, maybe check out PayPal if you're looking for a stock/company that's down with nice upside potential. I pulled the trigger a couple times last week on it. Once a little south of $62 and the next around $61.25. I plan on holding these for a few years while PayPal is working through this little funk. Prepandemic levels (before PayPal skyrocketed) it was in the ~$100 range, fwiw.

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Who's on the PayPal pain train with me?




Looking to buy more if it gets below $62 again. frick it.

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But international sales are not being hurt the way yours are. As a matter of fact, they’re increasing for all brands.

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Then buy it man. Why are you asking the board?

I got in at five me point at $54 and sold at $58 before numbers came out.


I had held out for a while hoping it would hit $50 but never dropped that low

Can’t convince me it’s not being manipulated. My puts fell like a stone today.

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Can’t convince me it’s not being manipulated. My puts fell like a stone today.

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It’s not manipulation. It’s just how options work. Implied Volatility, or “IV” in the option tables (which is one of the primary drivers of option premiums/pricing), tends to drop precipitously after earnings, unless there is a big (usually negative) surprise in the announcement.

We call the run up in IV just before earnings the spike and the drop after earnings the IV crush. That’s what you’re seeing today, since BUD announced this morning before the bell. And in addition to the IV crush, the stock has rallied about 1.3%. I can’t remember when you said you bought your 9/15 55 strike puts, but you likely did it when IV was higher than it is now. A strong directional move to the downside, or a pick up in IV before expiration, could still make your trade profitable.

The 47 strike BUD puts that I sold yesterday have dropped by 76% so far today. I expect them to expire worthless tomorrow. I typically sell options just prior to earnings and (if necessary) buy them back after earnings. I’ll do that with AMZN and SQ in about 45 minutes.

Come over to the options thread and we’d be happy to walk you through some of the tendencies in the options market. I typically don’t buy options, but I’ll try to help you learn the tables and how delta and theta (among other Greeks) affect pricing.

We're not talking about IV or the option price. At least I'm not.

I'm talking about the share price. IV can do whatever and my puts would pay if they were in the money. They are not in the money. (I bought them a month ago before IV was up)

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BUD/

*I have puts at $55 btw. Expiring middle of Sept and bought a month ago. They may still pay as it is slowly trending down after the big spikes earlier.

eta-The MolsonCoors 5 day chart is quite the comparison considering they had good earnings and good guidance.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TAP?p=TAP&.tsrc=fin-srch

Dropped like a stone and is down again today. Meanwhile BUD's earnings were weak and they say they will will financially support their distributors impacted by the crap sales in the US going forward. Doesn't sound like a winner to me.

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Can’t convince me it’s not being manipulated. My puts fell like a stone today.

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Pricing was already baked in. Share price is still down about 15% from April right before the Mulvaney backlash.

I had some puts expiring tomorrow. Sold about half yesterday for a nice gain and held the rest just in case earnings bombed. Ended up losing on the half I held onto, but made a little profit overall.

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We're not talking about IV or the option price. At least I'm not.


I'm talking about the share price. IV can do whatever and my puts would pay if they were in the money. They are not in the money. (I bought them a month ago before IV was up)

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No offense, but what you’re saying would only be relevant if you had shorted the equity. The stock could have gone from 56 to let’s say 57 (on a 55 strike put), but if IV had spiked, all else being equal, your puts would have reacted in your favor. As long as you’re discussing derivatives/options, implied volatility figures into the option price. Being ITM doesn’t mean that you’d necessarily have puts that “would pay”. Being ITM just means that the option has a certain amount of intrinsic value —> $ for $ as it goes ITM. But any detraction in IV would still affect even that overall price of the option. Apart from the intrinsic value component, the extrinsic value component is most certainly affected by changes in implied volatility (represented by vega), as well as time value or theta (and other Greeks that I’m skipping over).

Like I said, I’m not trying to be offensive (or defensive), but it’s quite important to pay attention to all of the primary factors that affect option pricing, whether you’re looking to go long or short an option. Just looking at the share price of the underlying, or any other single factor, won’t really give the full story.

No problem. Hopefully things still turn out so you can make a profit.

Like I said, drop into the options thread from time to time. When he’s there, Thatguy777 tends to take long options positions and I’m sure that he’d be happy to give you some pointers on going long puts or calls. I primarily sell premium and my focus these days is more on index options, but the same principles apply to equity options. Good luck.

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