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re: Investing question for the board from a position of complete ignorance.
Posted on 5/5/26 at 1:38 pm to bayoubengals88
Posted on 5/5/26 at 1:38 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:Good luck. And I mean that genuinely.
That’s fine. I don’t need a trend. I need an edge in 1-3 names.
I’ve found one, and I think I may have found two more.
The risk reward for someone outside of Wall Street, or an insider trading like Paul Pelosi, is simply too high for most of us. Then again, there are a select view who make a fortune on such bets.
I learned my lesson with a couple of stocks I reckoned were "sure winners" a long time ago (ENMD/ISAT). E.g., I was ready to drop a pile into a company known as EntreMed. CNBC broke news that James Watson had endorsed EntreMed's new anti-angiogenesis (anti-cancer) compound as the most significant medical development since his discovery of DNA double helix structure. With my knowledge of both Watson, and the medicine being promoted, I thought it was the play of the century. But by the time I got a break in my schedule to place an investment, the stock had skyrocketed, and was no longer investable IMO.
It turns out my "missed opportunity" was nothing more than an opportunity to get taken to the cleaners. Two days later, Watson finally came forward and said he had not only not made the statement, but he didn't even know what EntreMed was. The stock plummeted, investors lost their shirts, and I learned a valuable lesson. It was one of the most blatant insider BS cases I've ever seen on Wall Street, and to my knowledge, the perps got away Scot-free.
I still put my $2 into the lottery when it cracks three commas, but that's the extent of my gambling when it comes to "investments".
1
Posted on 5/5/26 at 1:53 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Honestly, the first page of the NBIS thread disproves this as many of us got in before most analysts had even heard of the name.
New methods of information has changed everything. You can get the “edge” now that you could not have obtained in 1995, 2005, or even 2015.
It will take research and risk however.
It happened with NBIS at $30 per share, and it may be happening now with other names near the top of this board.
One of the most common errors in the stock market is confusing a good outcome with a good decision. A stock going up doesn't validate your thesis any more than a stock going down invalidates it.
"What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome." — Annie Duke
Posted on 5/5/26 at 2:11 pm to SuperFanDan
quote:
It's that bad that I have a money manager at Edward Jones? Care to elaborate?
Is it that you don't like Edward Jones or you think I'm a sucker for paying his fees and not investing it myself?
Edward Jones usually charges 1.35% in management fees and a .05% platform fee. Note that both can be variable. They also charge commission fees on top of that for placing you into investments.
Just to keep numbers round: On a $1,000,000 portfolio earning 10% a year (average S&P 500 lifetime return) over 10 years, a 1.4% annual fee structure would cost you a total of $341,081 in that time. If you expand that out to 20 years it's $1,595,142, 30 years $6,112,851.
That's why folks take issue with Edward Jones. Fees erode your financial success and Edward Jones is very heavy with their fees.
This post was edited on 5/5/26 at 2:13 pm
Posted on 5/5/26 at 2:12 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
New methods of information has changed everything. You can get the “edge” now that you could not have obtained in 1995, 2005, or even 2015.
I’m 100% in agreement with you that retail can in fact post outsized gains consistently. Not everyone is capable of doing it, nor should everyone attempt to learn how to do it, but it is possible and there are people that are doing it. And retail has more of an edge now than ever in multiple ways
Posted on 5/5/26 at 4:16 pm to TigahsOnTop
quote:I get it.
A stock going up doesn't validate your thesis any more than a stock going down invalidates it.
But sorry, that is a loser's approach.
If a thesis involves a stock staying at level or declining, yet instead, it escalates, then the thesis was wrong. Period.
If I had the gumption to invest everything I owned, in what I knew was a solid investment in Apple before its seven to one split, I'd be midway to adding an extra comma to my net wealth. But that wouldn't have entailed risk mitigation.
My thesis involved risk mitigation to protect against unexpected outcome. The thesis actually mitigated potential outcome, while it mitigated potential loss. Failed thesis? I don't view it that way.
It is a pretty simple precept.
We all get it wrong sometimes.
But claiming we were right, when we were wrong, negates a learning process.
This post was edited on 5/5/26 at 4:28 pm
Posted on 5/5/26 at 6:06 pm to RolltidePA
quote:
On a $1,000,000 portfolio earning 10% a year (average S&P 500 lifetime return) over 10 years, a 1.4% annual fee structure would cost you a total of $341,081 in that time. If you expand that out to 20 years it's $1,595,142, 30 years $6,112,851.
This!!! Preacher meet choir.
For basic FA services that FAs are likely robo investing, especially, this is unfathomable to me.
“But they doubled my portfolio value!” is what I hear a lot when discussing these type of FA fees.
Surgeon General should require these fee cost projections on every cereal box and beer bottle.
This post was edited on 5/5/26 at 6:07 pm
Posted on 5/6/26 at 11:23 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
It is a pretty simple precept.
We all get it wrong sometimes.
But claiming we were right, when we were wrong, negates a learning process.
I agree for the most part, but will push back a bit.
If something is positive expected value, and you take that bet, that's a good decision whether the bet wins or loses. That is the point of my post.
I'll use a betting example because it is easier to grasp, but the same concept applies to virtually every market (stock market, sports betting, lottery, etc.).
If you are able to buy a lottery ticket that gives you a 50/50 chance of winning, but the wining outcome pays $210 on a $100 bet, you should take that bet 100/100 times. The reality is, you will lose that bet 50% of the time.
That does not mean you made a bad decision in taking the bet, it just means that there is variance baked into the outcome. That same principal exists in financial markets as well. Edges are extremely small, so the variance will get you a lot of the time. That does not mean you should stop pursuing those edges (given your logic is sound).
Posted on 5/6/26 at 11:47 am to SuperFanDan
dear SuperFanDan
I bought 3 shares of NFLX on 4/17/26 for 97.485 each.
I bought 1 shares of NFLX on 4/20/26 for 93.940 each.
I bought 6 shares of NFLX on 5/6/26 for 87.900 each.
NFLX does not pay a dividend. Some analyst say it will be 120.000 a share in may 2027.
I bought 3 shares of NFLX on 4/17/26 for 97.485 each.
I bought 1 shares of NFLX on 4/20/26 for 93.940 each.
I bought 6 shares of NFLX on 5/6/26 for 87.900 each.
NFLX does not pay a dividend. Some analyst say it will be 120.000 a share in may 2027.
Posted on 5/7/26 at 10:40 pm to SuperFanDan
Go to Paul Merriman.com
A weaith of information backed up by statistics.
A weaith of information backed up by statistics.
Posted on 5/7/26 at 10:57 pm to SuperFanDan
Figure out your strategy before stock picking.
Posted on 5/8/26 at 5:16 am to Boomer Rick
Your not an educated professional with decades of experience. Therefore, the way u become educated & expierenced is to invest into low cost Indexed Funds (VOO, VTI, SCHD, QQQ). The people who lose money are the people who try to "get rich quick". If you want to expierence the market, take the Peter Lynch approach and invest in companies you know... (coca-cola, apple, exxon mobil, home depot). I cant stress this enough. It truly is the cheat code.... (please re read this paragraph)
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