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re: I got out of equities on Thursday because of advice from someone I respect

Posted on 5/17/11 at 9:20 pm to
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 5/17/11 at 9:20 pm to
2008 called.
Posted by LSUtoOmaha
Nashville
Member since Apr 2004
26719 posts
Posted on 5/17/11 at 9:42 pm to
Still too high brah
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 5/17/11 at 9:49 pm to
You just wanna get your first house on the cheap.

Don't worry, so do I.
Posted by LSUtoOmaha
Nashville
Member since Apr 2004
26719 posts
Posted on 5/17/11 at 9:52 pm to
I'm gonna by one for 30 cents on the dollar like JT. Straight cash transaction of course
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 5/17/11 at 9:54 pm to
Someone reads PragCap.
Posted by The ATL
Atlanta
Member since Jul 2010
825 posts
Posted on 5/17/11 at 10:04 pm to
if everything plays out like it could, you will still pay too much and cash is the only way you would be able to buy a house.
Posted by Baylor
Member since May 2009
571 posts
Posted on 6/2/11 at 6:01 am to
Well it looks like my buddy hit the nail on the head again to the exact day calling the top.

I will let you guys and gals know when he calls bottom again.

It could be a while. LOL
Posted by Broke
AKA Buttercup
Member since Sep 2006
65359 posts
Posted on 6/2/11 at 9:05 am to
quote:

Well it looks like my buddy hit the nail on the head again to the exact day calling the top.


I think your buddy is delusional if you or he thinks he can call market tops and bottoms in a market driven by speculation and emotion.
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 6/2/11 at 9:32 am to
"fooled by randomness"
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133653 posts
Posted on 6/2/11 at 10:07 am to
quote:

I will let you guys and gals know when he calls bottom again.

Please do. Thanks. (I assume he will tell you when it's the bottom on the day it happens and not afterwards, right?)
Posted by Blakely Bimbo
Member since Dec 2010
1183 posts
Posted on 6/2/11 at 12:31 pm to
JMO, but I think this is playing out very similar to 2008. I remember a certain ADP jobs report that was very disappointing and the market sold off. By the time the BLS came out, it posted a contradictory result and the shorts were burned. We'll see tomorrow.

Your friend is right about the distribution that has been taking place but I think the summer is going to be rather choppy. The big boyz go to the Hamptons or the south of France for the summer and barring some geopolitical event, there won't be much happening until the Aug 2 deadline for the Debt ceiling.

I've been thinking a lot about what might be next and it is very possible that the Congress allows corporations to to Bring home the offshore money for free or reduced taxes and over time. This is one way they could provide stimulus at home, especially if they tie it to some employment efforts. Timing is the key though.
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 6/2/11 at 12:53 pm to
You're really drawing comparisons between now and 2008 on the basis of an ADP report? Really? ADP and BLS routinely disagree. I'd say its less of anomaly that they actually agree than the other way around. I have never gotten the impression that the market gives the ADP much weight. Not 0, but nowhere near enough to drive a 2% daily loss.
Posted by GoDucks349
Westfir
Member since Jan 2011
420 posts
Posted on 6/2/11 at 5:32 pm to
quote:


You just wanna get your first house on the cheap.

Don't worry, so do I.


LOL, just bought a nice house at depressed prices and sold my current place in 5 days at a depressed price as well. But not nearly as depressed as the place I bought. I did the urban vs rural swap. Rural prices are down more than urban. Sold my urban place and bought a relatively new rural custom home on 1.3 acres with river front.
Posted by Blakely Bimbo
Member since Dec 2010
1183 posts
Posted on 6/3/11 at 9:21 am to
quote:

You're really drawing comparisons between now and 2008 on the basis of an ADP report?


NO not BASED on the ADP. I am saying that I think we will have a CHOPPY summer market similar to 2008. Not basing it on the ADP, but I remember a day in the summer of 08 where the ADP moved the market lower and then fri the BLS caused a whipsaw in movement higher.



This post was edited on 6/3/11 at 9:22 am
Posted by Sid in Lakeshore
Member since Oct 2008
41956 posts
Posted on 6/3/11 at 10:21 pm to
quote:

Well it looks like my buddy hit the nail on the head again to the exact day calling the top.


Hunh? It's been 5 straight weeks of decline for the S&P 500......I sold 4 weeks ago.

Moved everything into Govt. backed securities. Expect the market to be flat at best over the next 2 months.....downside risk is much greater than upside, at the moment.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133653 posts
Posted on 6/4/11 at 9:24 am to
quote:

It's been 5 straight weeks of decline for the S&P 500......I sold 4 weeks ago.

Moved everything into Govt. backed securities. Expect the market to be flat at best over the next 2 months.....downside risk is much greater than upside, at the moment.
If I see just a few more posts/sentiments like this one, it will be time to go all-in out of cash and back into the market. The negativity is not quite there yet. But it's getting closer.

"Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett
Posted by LSU0358
Member since Jan 2005
8091 posts
Posted on 6/4/11 at 1:00 pm to
quote:

If I see just a few more posts/sentiments like this one, it will be time to go all-in out of cash and back into the market. The negativity is not quite there yet. But it's getting closer.


I think the fear is already here. They were in border line histerics on many news shows and I haven't seen a positive article in a week and a half. I went in long on S&P's late last week. I see S&P 1250 being as low as we go, but I think we could start back up at any time. I also shorted gold as well...

Everyone feel free to take this as a sign that everything will crash Monday with gold skyrocketing.
This post was edited on 6/4/11 at 1:11 pm
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133653 posts
Posted on 6/4/11 at 1:39 pm to
quote:

Everyone feel free to take this as a sign that everything will crash Monday with gold skyrocketing.


Posted by LSU0358
Member since Jan 2005
8091 posts
Posted on 6/4/11 at 1:55 pm to
I'm a little jaded. My last 5 trades over the last 1.5 months have gone in the complete opposite direction I needed as soon as I've entered. I'm still way up for the year, but it just gets frustrating.
Posted by Broke
AKA Buttercup
Member since Sep 2006
65359 posts
Posted on 6/4/11 at 3:27 pm to
Anybody remember Harry Dent?
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