How long can oil prices continue to be manipulated before the price explodes?

The reason prices haven't skyrocketed is probably China. They massively cut imports so the demand shock didn't materialize. The implication is that they had far more in reserves than was assumed.

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how about you show us numbers and less dramatics.

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Worldwide we are getting close to tank bottom on reserves, the crack spread is extremely high suggesting a disconnect between physical and paper pricing, and every day the fighting only intensified and more supply gets threatened. It went down a bunch on a tenuous peace deal at best and hasn’t recovered even to that level.

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The Houthis apparently join the party. The market risk in this crisis is that many have simply grown tired of it, while others increasingly treat it as a fade - a hurricane that has peaked and is about to fizzle out. But it isn’t. Quite the opposite. It is escalating, incl in terms of physical flow disruption. That complacency is what makes it dangerous. This is not a return to square one. It is square one with 1.5 billion fewer barrels of global inventories than on 28 Feb, and a higher risk of disruption to Middle Eastern oil flows than at the start of the crisis, despite the expansion of the dark fleet shuttle trade. Meanwhile, Iran’s regime is now focused on one thing: controlling the Strait. It is the one source of leverage they cannot afford to lose. The nuclear programme has become secondary and, perhaps, too expensive. That also makes renewed negotiations less likely than before. We may be looking at a long conflict. This is the real thing, chaps. Yet hardly anyone seems to care right now. We are weeks away from crude & product shortages in parts of the world, despite China’s new 6 rather than 12mbpd seaborne crude import baseline.

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LINK

Iran and Hormuz are just not that big of a factor in the global oil market any more.

Don't fall for the hype around the 2-3 missiles Iran manages to fire per day from their ever dwindling stockpile.

There is a whole industry around trying to make Trump look bad. Do not let your investments get caught up in those histrionics.

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Care to enlighten us on how you got to that conclusion? Even before this escapade US shale production has been declining, companies are spending less and less on capex, where is the supply glut coming from? If you believe in the AI story, that provides another colossal need for energy.

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So you are saying production is being intentionally reduced? Interesting. What would happen if they started spending to increase production? Would the supply increase?

Also funny no one mentioned Trump and you feel you need to defend the nonsense.

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Get some investors together. Rent an oil storage tank . Fill her up at 80$ . Wait. Sell at $200

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I didn’t say anything about $200, though not quite off the table. Why would I go through that hassle when I can just flip calls?

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There is 0% doubt about it. The midterms are later this year.

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I mean I’m conservative, but you need to wake up. Going all in on any politician is a poor move. I vote for conservative, but Trumps second term has objectively been a mess.

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Where did anyone say that? Paper oil is being manipulated, physical oil….well…..can’t make up molecules

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You said production was going down. There are plenty of oil fields that are not being harvested. It isn't as if there is less oil to harvest yet production is decreasing.

Seems like you have made the point for me.