re: How long can oil prices continue to be manipulated before the price explodes?

quote:

---

Sorry, that was responding to someone else.

---

No worries! Thanks for being civil.

quote:

---

I think the bull case is very strong even after the conflict ends.

---

My overriding royalties hope you are right!

quote:

---

You said production was going down.

---

In my unprofessional opinion, we’re likely to see some plateau in US oil production fairly soon (next 2-3 years), but I doubt we see a material decline any time soon, short of the price of oil tanking Covid shutdown style. EIA for total monthly has its last recorded month, April 2026, at 13.9 Million bpd, the most ever. Y-Chart shows May backed off some, in the 13.7s, but June was back in 13.8s.

I think we’ll very soon hit a month of 14.0.

quote:

---

There are plenty of oil fields that are not being harvested.

---

This is true, but I think some of those reserves, at least domestically, aren’t being extracted from at this time, or at least aggressively, because the break even price point per barrel is much higher than the stuff we’re currently getting out the ground and piped to market.

Remember, it’s not only investment in the wells themselves, but the total overall infrastructure to get that production to a sales point and beyond. We’ve got more oil, but it may take consistent $90-110/bbl for real extraction investment to get ramped up.

This has blown my mind and I haven't really heard many good explanations. I think Chris Martenson and Art Berman have said the paper markets just deal in a different reality and will eventually catch up. This was a pretty good explanation. I did make a bet we will see $150 WTI by the end of the year.

quote:

---

An editor of The Economist once said: “We are a paper of opinion and views. We stick our neck out and consequently risk having it chopped from time to time.” The oil price has delivered such a blow. At the end of April, almost two months after America and Israel attacked Iran, we said oil traders were in “la-la land” thinking that oil prices would fall to $88 by the end of the year. Today Brent crude costs just over $70 a barrel. Our prediction went about as well as the war.

We got it wrong for two reasons. First, we thought that America and Iran would hold out against a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz: America because Mr Trump deludedly thought he held the whip hand, Iran because its regime knew its people could be made to endure more pain. In fact, facing the fury of American motorists, Mr Trump all but folded, preventing a disaster. Since the two parties struck a provisional deal in June, enough oil has been getting out of the Gulf to reassure markets that supply is coming back online, even if the future of the strait remains uncertain.

Our second oversight was, like others, not anticipating the staggering degree to which China would be able to slash its oil imports. Crude imports are 5m barrels a day lower than a year ago, despite the fall in prices. China has cut its demand and shored up supply. Its oil reserves are opaque—many barrels are hidden from satellites underground, and there is a blurred line between official reserves and corporate inventories. But they have been shown to be a powerful buffer.

---

LINK