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Posted on 3/16/23 at 3:59 pm to I Love Bama
quote:
They basically made the same arguments as people are making now while ignoring the red flags.
What a bunch of hogwash and gaslighting. Every tom dick and harry has been calling for a catastrophic crash for at least 2 years now. In fact, those who aren’t calling for a crash are in the minority. Where’s that “it’s always that one person arguing with no one” meme?
quote:
I was a commercial real estate appraiser for 10 years. Had my MAI certification for 2 years before I got sick of the industry.
Doesn’t make you a macro or micro economic savant or give you the ability to predict the future.
quote:
During the last housing crash, all that demand disappeared over night.
Not really. Maybe from your perspective.
quote:
I was buying houses off the MLS for $10,000.
That can be done now. And per your post history, you bought section 8……which again can be done now adjusted for inflation. I see $20k and $25k houses on mls. Furthermore, the ability to take advantage of a collapse is largely dependent on a) being able to predict the future and b) not being negatively impacted by a crash. Real estate doesn’t just crash on its own with no other fall out.
quote:
You guys really need to dig in deeper to past housing crashes.
Please tell us the exact month the real estate market will collapse? These aren’t the same circumstances and it shows a lack of effort when anyone parrots “they said the same thing leading up to 2008”. Back then the real estate market was its own demise. Today there are many economical factors at play that if somehow the RE market does collapse, it won’t be because consumers are over leveraged in RE with ARM loans and creditors mis-rating securities. The data show that right now people can afford the houses they own.
This post was edited on 3/16/23 at 4:00 pm
Posted on 3/16/23 at 4:15 pm to Artificial Intel
The posters on here that have been predicting/begging/wishcasting for a housing crash sure are Big Mad for some reason and they are lashing out over their wrongness 
Posted on 3/16/23 at 4:19 pm to ronricks
The market is going to correct, nobody knows actually when.
Posted on 3/16/23 at 4:20 pm to ronricks
quote:
The posters on here that have been predicting/begging/wishcasting for a housing crash sure are Big Mad for some reason and they are lashing out over their wrongness
They think they’re Michael Burry when they’re actually Jim Cramer.
Posted on 3/16/23 at 4:34 pm to Artificial Intel
quote:
The data show that right now people can afford the houses they own.
Everyone affords the house that they own until they are unemployed or underemployed.
It is why housing is tied so much to joblessness.
Housing will remain "fine" until something changes the job market.
Posted on 3/16/23 at 4:54 pm to meansonny
How much of this is a lag time issue? There are tons of developments going up in my area but these have been in the works for over a year. We wonder how many takers there will be for $400k cookie cutter box houses on 1/4 acre for 7% interest.
Posted on 3/16/23 at 5:01 pm to SquatchDawg
Someone at some point gets left holding the bag (new home inventory with no buyer).
But so long as employment is strong, I expect the homes to sell. Even at 7%.
But so long as employment is strong, I expect the homes to sell. Even at 7%.
Posted on 3/16/23 at 5:36 pm to meansonny
quote:
Everyone affords the house that they own until they are unemployed or underemployed.
That……..isn’t true.
Posted on 3/16/23 at 6:56 pm to Artificial Intel
Agree to disagree.
The housing expense is the first one in the budget.
The last one to go unpaid (loss of equity. 2 month deposit for the next spot with credit approval).
Once a family (husband, wife, or both) are underemployed/unemployed, it doesn't matter if they had an 850 credit score... they are sinking paycheck by paycheck.
The housing expense is the first one in the budget.
The last one to go unpaid (loss of equity. 2 month deposit for the next spot with credit approval).
Once a family (husband, wife, or both) are underemployed/unemployed, it doesn't matter if they had an 850 credit score... they are sinking paycheck by paycheck.
Posted on 3/16/23 at 7:08 pm to Artificial Intel
quote:
These aren’t the same circumstances and it shows a lack of effort when anyone parrots “they said the same thing leading up to 2008”. Back then the real estate market was its own demise.
Well you're right in that regard--2008 was limited to a real estate bubble.
This downturn is an "Everything" bubble. This inflation was caused by free money and paper millionaires. Lots of headlines recently "____worse since 2008".
This will be a great reset--for everything. There is no way around it.
This post was edited on 3/16/23 at 9:13 pm
Posted on 3/16/23 at 7:28 pm to ronricks
quote:
There simply isn't enough housing supply in this Country
There is, bit it's unaffordable for many. A starter home now is a quarter million dollars.
Posted on 3/16/23 at 8:27 pm to Bard
Real Estate YouTube Channel This guy is doing an excellent job documenting the ongoing crash. Has plenty of data from various sources showing that. Prices are already down over 10% in many areas.
Anyone who thinks we're not in a crash in many parts of the country has their head in the sand!
Anyone who thinks we're not in a crash in many parts of the country has their head in the sand!
Posted on 3/16/23 at 8:35 pm to SaintsTiger
There is plenty of inventory in this country. Just not enough inventory in attractive areas. As Urban areas decay more people are moving in the suburbs and other areas
Posted on 3/16/23 at 8:47 pm to I Love Bama
quote:
You guys really need to dig in deeper to past housing crashes.
How many housing crashes have there been outside of 2008? Or was this a global comment?
This post was edited on 3/16/23 at 8:49 pm
Posted on 3/16/23 at 8:53 pm to SaintsTiger
quote:That doesn't seem that much - especially not in markets where shite exploded up 50-100% (like it did in my area).
Prices are already down over 10% in many areas.
quote:You'd have to define "crash". 10% in highly inflated markets, leaving them WAY above still where they were in 2019 is not a "crash" IMO.
Anyone who thinks we're not in a crash in many parts of the country has their head in the sand!
Posted on 3/16/23 at 8:54 pm to The_Duke
quote:nah
Well you're right in that regard--2008 was a real limited to a real estate bubble.
This downturn is an "Everything" bubble. This inflation was caused by free money and paper millionaires. Lots of headlines recently "____worse since 2008".
This will be a great reset--for everything. There is no way around it.
Posted on 3/16/23 at 9:10 pm to Big Scrub TX
Prices in Travis county and surrounding areas are down 20%.
And this was the hottest market in the country for the past three years.
And this was the hottest market in the country for the past three years.
Posted on 3/16/23 at 9:12 pm to Big Scrub TX
Sure--banks collapsing left and right. Ppl buying 100k jpegs of Apes, Tech bubble 2.0, Milk and eggs are $8.
no big deal--everything is fine
no big deal--everything is fine
This post was edited on 3/16/23 at 9:20 pm
Posted on 3/16/23 at 10:23 pm to Paul Allen
To his point, the median home price in Travis County is currently equal to what it was in March/April 2021.
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