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2
Posted on 4/1/21 at 8:15 pm to rocket31
quote:
bitcoin was up 104% in Q1, what other equity performed that well. thx
Does that disprove my correlation comment? To be fair, I shouldn’t have said “highly” correlated, but BTCs correlation has increased pretty substantially in the past year and change.
Posted on 4/1/21 at 8:24 pm to jfw3535
quote:
I have less than 20 years until retirement and I have zero money invested in bonds. I am still 100% in the market.
I hear this so much. Maybe it won’t be a problem in 2021 but if complacency in stocks sticks while interest rates keep going up, there will be a reality check about the diversification benefits of bonds in a portfolio.
The 10YR is already trying to outpace the dividend rate on S&P. I’ll be rotating into some bonds in some time if rates continue to climb.
These market valuations are only sustainable for so long especially if alternative sources of yield continue to become more attractive and the profit cycle recovery starts to ease up.
Posted on 4/1/21 at 8:36 pm to LSUcam7
Yeah I understand that equity markets go up far more than they go down, but little or no correlation is never a bad idea to consider in a portfolio.
Buying the dip gets a little tougher if you’re only adding $19,000 per year to your $1MM 401k or whatever. When your ability to contribute to your funds is 2% or less, you don’t have a ton of room to take advantage of opportunities.
Buying the dip gets a little tougher if you’re only adding $19,000 per year to your $1MM 401k or whatever. When your ability to contribute to your funds is 2% or less, you don’t have a ton of room to take advantage of opportunities.
Posted on 4/2/21 at 7:38 am to buffbraz
I'm kicking myself for putting IRA funds into a balanced fund, rather than leaving it in a Blue Chip Growth fund
Posted on 4/2/21 at 8:10 am to slackster
quote:This is exactly why I keep money in bonds. I contribute the minimum to get the match in my 401k and don't contribute at all to my IRAs because my contributions are not significant relative to the whole. Even with money in bonds, overall I beat the market because I use leveraged funds.
When your ability to contribute to your funds is 2% or less, you don’t have a ton of room to take advantage of opportunities.
Currently I have 60% in stock ETFs (TQQQ, MVV, IJR, VEXAX), 33% in bonds (BND, VBTIX), and 7% in cash (and only because I'm not allowed to do anything with it). My average return since January 2017 is 33%. The average performance of SPY over the same time period is ~15%. At the bottom of the COVID dip I sold all bonds and bought 100% stock (TQQQ). At the beginning of the year, I took my gains and put them back into bonds. I have 3 'tiers' of investments and at most I make buy and sell orders each quarter for each tier (maximum of 12 trades). I don't time the market unless you count me doing the same trades at the end of each quarter 'timing'.
Posted on 4/2/21 at 8:18 am to meansonny
quote:
Every massive dip has recovered in 24 months.
I can see how people now think this. It isn't true historically.
Posted on 4/2/21 at 9:41 am to slackster
so if the risk is the same, why would you hold the weaker asset? soon enough everyone will realize this
then its: good game
then its: good game
Posted on 4/2/21 at 9:43 am to buffbraz
With the printer going “brrrrrrrrr”, bonds don’t look good to me.
Posted on 4/2/21 at 10:13 am to buffbraz
quote:
My question is, are investors on this board who have a 20+ year time horizon still holding bond funds?
I'm older than 40 and have zero money in bonds right now.
Posted on 4/2/21 at 10:39 am to buffbraz
Bonds have been worthless for a while, I just dont see the point in them much any more. More old school line of thinking from like the 60-40 portfolio days.
IF you want to hedge against inflation Bitcoin IS a better investment, I'd move any bond stuff I have to crypto.
IF you want to hedge against inflation Bitcoin IS a better investment, I'd move any bond stuff I have to crypto.
This post was edited on 4/2/21 at 10:41 am
Posted on 4/2/21 at 10:47 am to rocket31
quote:
rocket31
Go jerk off in the crypto thread. Bonds are for adults.
My God. You really just said bitcoin is less risky than a Treasury
This post was edited on 4/2/21 at 10:52 am
Posted on 4/2/21 at 11:05 am to wutangfinancial
I used math actually to show that
Posted on 4/2/21 at 11:39 am to rocket31
Can you go back hundreds of years with that math?
I will say you're in good company. Apparently Paris Hilton is really bullish on BTC.
I will say you're in good company. Apparently Paris Hilton is really bullish on BTC.
This post was edited on 4/2/21 at 12:15 pm
Posted on 4/2/21 at 12:45 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
wutangfinancial
Betting on the sustainability of Bitcoin at these levels (and recent) is literally a bet on the destabilization of the world financial system.
Enjoy making some money in the intermediate term guys but don’t get too locked in that crypto is the only place to earn big returns.
And back to bonds... if you entered 2020 with a 70/30 portfolio; do the math on going 90/10 after the 33% dip during COVID selloff.
Bonds gave you relative safety to make good moves. I’d be ready to rotate that 90/10 back to 70/30 in the relatively near future.
Posted on 4/2/21 at 12:59 pm to LSUcam7
quote:I am intrigued by your ideas and wish to subscribe to your newsletter.
if you entered 2020 with a 70/30 portfolio; do the math on going 90/10 after the 33% dip during COVID selloff.
Bonds gave you relative safety to make good moves. I’d be ready to rotate that 90/10 back to 70/30 in the relatively near future.
Posted on 4/2/21 at 10:32 pm to RoyalWe
quote:
That's why I have a portion of my money in bonds. I buy dips
Yeah. People who buy dips never do the math on how much they dont earn sitting in bonds during the biggest bull runs in decades.
Keep telling yourself that.
Posted on 4/3/21 at 7:14 am to buffbraz
Right now is a tricky time
Markets are a bit frothy and valuations are sky high.
Rates are ultra low and bonds have little upward potential. If rates do swing upward, bonds will get crushed.
I would cover a portion of the bond exposure with some TIPs or other inflation protected tip type fund. Fidelity and Charles Schwab have them.
A little insurance in the market could go a long ways.
Markets are a bit frothy and valuations are sky high.
Rates are ultra low and bonds have little upward potential. If rates do swing upward, bonds will get crushed.
I would cover a portion of the bond exposure with some TIPs or other inflation protected tip type fund. Fidelity and Charles Schwab have them.
A little insurance in the market could go a long ways.
Posted on 4/3/21 at 8:49 am to meansonny
quote:Math is math! I assure you my returns are calculated including holding bonds. I'm quite happy.
Yeah. People who buy dips never do the math on how much they dont earn sitting in bonds during the biggest bull runs in decades.
Keep telling yourself that.
Posted on 4/3/21 at 8:51 am to KillTheGophers
quote:Do a search for 'valuations are high' over the past few years. Lots of hits.
Markets are a bit frothy and valuations are sky high.
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