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re: Have you seen this newest rec - LBMH? He's been consistently on
Posted on 12/20/10 at 9:34 pm to auditu
Posted on 12/20/10 at 9:34 pm to auditu
quote:
You don't get an edge in an AMD... You can develop an edge in small and micro-caps.
Usually that's spot on. What gave me the edge was institutional fear. Every analyst on the street was saying it was a good bet but they didn't want to go out on a limb. I did and made a bunch of money because I realized the standard EMH assumptions didn't apply.
And yes, that's foshizzle. I have a great deal of respect for efficient markets and think that it isn't enough to claim prospects are good. You have to show that the market is likely wrong in addition to that. Not impossible - but much harder.
BTW, the specific play I made was back in the early 90's when AMD was being sued by Intel. AMD had a license to use Intel's microchip code to produce a 386 clone and Intel said that had been violated. A clear case of where extremely specialized knowledge trumped efficient markets assumptions.
I don't think it's impossible to beat the market, just that it's a lot tougher than most people realize. If you don't respect the market you aren't really doing quality research.
1
Posted on 12/20/10 at 9:39 pm to foshizzle
Would you just shush and help in determining if LBMH is a good investment?! Geez!
Posted on 12/21/10 at 9:18 am to foshizzle
quote:
One of my better picks was AMD, which even then was a multibillion dollar company and very heavily followed. The problem was that at the time they were the subject of a very high-profile lawsuit. Most analysts at the time were saying that, yeah, it's probably a good buy but nobody will touch it anyway because if you recommend it to your clients and it drops off a cliff, your clients will sue you.
Companies involved with potentially disastrous litigation are very frequently subjected to enormous overreaction by market participants. I was involved in a similar scenario not too long ago with the whole Neutral Tandem vs. Level 3 fiasco. Similar to your situation, Tandem lost their case but made a very nice run off of the lows nonetheless, and in a very short amount of time at that. Those who assume the most risk stand to pocket the most coin. I think many just hear lawsuit and immediately sell because they don't know how to evaluate such. See GS, BP. And good call on AMD.
This post was edited on 12/21/10 at 9:19 am
Posted on 12/21/10 at 9:51 am to RedStickBR
For legit son.
Posted on 12/21/10 at 9:53 am to kfizzle85
quote:
For legit son.
I'm still waiting on you to open a trading account.
Posted on 12/21/10 at 9:59 am to RedStickBR
CFA2, busy season, every day life > trading account. Maybe in July. 
Posted on 12/21/10 at 10:01 am to kfizzle85
Outperforming the market can lead to more greatly outperforming life. Food for thought. Plus, I always make better trading decisions once I've thrown a few glasses of scotch back. The two are compatible.
(FWIW, only some of the above is true.)
Posted on 12/21/10 at 12:43 pm to RedStickBR
quote:
Plus, I always make better trading decisions once I've thrown a few glasses of scotch back. The two are compatible.
I put in an order for a 100,000 shares of APPI for $.0013 per share.
It now trades as WHEN.pk for .0023 cents per share, so I guess it worked.
Posted on 1/7/11 at 9:19 am to auditu
Eiad Asbahi was on the Jim Engster Show on 89.3 yesterday morning with another local money manager - Andy Anderson. He mentioned this company again and said it was his 2nd largest holding. There's got to be something going on in this company. I bought some shares today.
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