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Started By
Message
re: Fed officials doubt need for further rate cuts
Posted on 9/22/25 at 5:17 pm to DarthRebel
Posted on 9/22/25 at 5:17 pm to DarthRebel
quote:
We got a cut, let it play out.
Agreed, but if history is prologue then we can expect inflation to be 3% or higher for at least the rest of the year.
0
Posted on 9/22/25 at 5:46 pm to bigjoe1
quote:
FWIW' s worth I think cuts depend on the labor market. Another bad jobs number and at least 1 if not 2 cuts this year. Both .25%
You have to take inflation into account as well. Inflation rose 2.7% to 2.9% before the cut. If it goes above 3% because of the cut, it’s going to be hard to lower rates again. It’s basically a no win situation.
Posted on 9/22/25 at 5:58 pm to DarthRebel
quote:
We got a cut, let it play out.
Posted on 9/22/25 at 6:26 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
How would that affect me?
Apparently a lot because you’ve been begging for rate cuts for two years now
Posted on 9/22/25 at 8:12 pm to LSURussian
quote:
But the two people the OP quoted didn't say it.
But they followed along from Jeromes orders
And dont try and pretend they didnt
Posted on 9/23/25 at 8:55 am to SDVTiger
quote:They didn't say it like you claimed they did.
But they followed along from Jeromes orders
And don't try to pretend they did.
Posted on 9/23/25 at 2:38 pm to bigjoe1
quote:The unemployment rate for recent college graduates aged 22–27 is 5.8% —the highest since October 2013 (ignoring the wild pandemic disruption). It is considerably higher than the 2.7% rate for the general population of college graduates. LINK
While there may be risks to the unemployment rate, unless those start to materialize
The overall unemployment rate for young workers between the ages of 22 and 27 is 6.9%.
Unemployment for 20 to 24-year-old men is 9.1% LINK.
Jerome & Co say "Let them eat cake."
Posted on 9/23/25 at 10:38 pm to NC_Tigah
The cuts won't do much for employment. Just more profits for companies.
Posted on 9/24/25 at 1:05 am to lsu xman
quote:
The cuts won't do much for employment. Just more profits for companies.
Yeah. Company profits are never a good sign for hiring and transitioning for growth.
Most companies do their best hiring when profit margins are at their thinnest.
Posted on 9/24/25 at 11:18 am to meansonny
That 1 percent cut in 2024 really boosted employment.
Posted on 9/25/25 at 10:26 am to bigjoe1
GDP - 3.8% (3.3% forecast)
Initial Jobless Claims - 218k (235k forecast)
Inflation is sticky/climbing
Everyone with a brain knew even the .25% cut was a bad idea, not to mention future cuts.
10-year is going to climb, taking fixed rate mortgages with it.
SDVTiger is going to be so confused when mortgage rates stay mid-6s and higher.
Initial Jobless Claims - 218k (235k forecast)
Inflation is sticky/climbing
Everyone with a brain knew even the .25% cut was a bad idea, not to mention future cuts.
10-year is going to climb, taking fixed rate mortgages with it.
SDVTiger is going to be so confused when mortgage rates stay mid-6s and higher.
This post was edited on 9/25/25 at 10:28 am
Posted on 9/26/25 at 9:14 am to SDVTiger
quote:
Yeah I figured you wouldnt be able tl answer coherently
The Sept jobs report is gonna mean a lot for which way this goes
Oh no. You don't get to use data in developing your opinion. We have spent a year reading your posts that ignore data. You don't get to sound like a financial analyst now. Go back to your norm!
Posted on 9/26/25 at 10:00 am to Longhorn Actual
quote:Perhaps. But the 10-year to 30yr fixed rate mortgage spread is about 50 BPS higher than the 50yr median. So mortgage rates have room to the downside, and I'm not sure the Fed has much to do w/ the 10yr rate at this juncture anyway. Congress continuing to layer on debt is the main player with current 10yr T-rates IMO.
10-year is going to climb, taking fixed rate mortgages with it.
Posted on 9/26/25 at 10:08 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
and I'm not sure the Fed has much to do w/ the 10yr rate at this juncture anyway. Congress continuing to layer on debt is the main player with current 10yr T-rates IMO.
Or it’s as simple as “if inflation is climbing and they cut rates, which will cause it to climb even more, why would I put my money into long-term securities when I can do better elsewhere?”
Yield moves opposite price.
Price moves in the same direction as demand.
Bond market — Demand down = price down = yields up
At auction — Must offer more attractive yields to entice buyers or you wind up with a soft auction.
This post was edited on 9/26/25 at 10:09 am
Posted on 9/26/25 at 3:21 pm to Longhorn Actual
quote:Or perhaps, as the FOMC rates do influence short term rates, we can use the lower expense T-bills to fund the debt balloon Potatobrain left us. Thereby cutting DC expenditures and decreasing upward pressure on the 10-yr.
Or it’s as simple as “if inflation is climbing and they cut rates, which will cause it to climb even more, why would I put my money into long-term securities when I can do better elsewhere?”
Your assumptions about a direct, inverse relationship between Fed rates and 10-yr rates notwithstanding.
This post was edited on 9/26/25 at 4:25 pm
Posted on 9/26/25 at 4:12 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Your assumptions about a direct, inverse relationship between Fed rates and 10-yr rates notwithstanding.
It’s not a direct relationship, inverse or otherwise, and I’ve never suggested it is.
In fact, I’ve pointed out repeatedly that the FFR does NOT drive the 10-year and/or mortgage rates. It’s a spurious relationship, confounded by market sentiment, confidence, and many other things.
Posted on 9/26/25 at 7:47 pm to Suntiger
quote:
You have to take inflation into account as well. Inflation rose 2.7% to 2.9% before the cut. If it goes above 3% because of the cut, it’s going to be hard to lower rates again. It’s basically a no win situation.
We had MASSIVE inflation in 2021/2022. I know: I was buying lots of alloy material.
And now we’re afraid of our shadows with 3% inflation?
Come on man.
Posted on 9/26/25 at 10:41 pm to Longhorn Actual
quote:
10-year is going to climb, taking fixed rate mortgages with it.
Good, the housing market needs to crash a little
Posted on 9/27/25 at 9:52 am to TDFreak
quote:
We had MASSIVE inflation in 2021/2022. I know: I was buying lots of alloy material.
And now we’re afraid of our shadows with 3% inflation?
Come on man.
I think that’s the issue. It’s the cumulative effect of inflation since 2021.
The inflation rate averaged out over the last five years is close to 5%. If we were coming out of 1-2% inflationary period, 3% isn’t great, but isn’t too bad. But we’re not. We are coming out of 7-9% period and while it has fallen to 2.9%, it is showing signs of increasing, not falling.
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