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Started By
Message
re: Facebook continues to tank
Posted on 5/22/12 at 2:14 pm to TheHiddenFlask
Posted on 5/22/12 at 2:14 pm to TheHiddenFlask
2
Posted on 5/22/12 at 2:25 pm to kfizzle85
What's up for 30 seconds and down for a week?
No, not my penis, FACEBOOK!!!
No, not my penis, FACEBOOK!!!
Posted on 5/22/12 at 2:26 pm to kfizzle85
They were reporting that FB value is really only $17-$20 a share. 
I don't touch tech stocks. Got burnt in 2000, never again. 
I don't touch tech stocks. Got burnt in 2000, never again. 
Posted on 5/22/12 at 2:30 pm to fishfighter
quote:
They were reporting that FB value is really only $17-$20 a share.
who is "they"?
Posted on 5/22/12 at 3:10 pm to TheHiddenFlask
There was a story on CNBC early today. Something is very fishy. They were talking about some inside trading was going on. 
Posted on 5/22/12 at 3:14 pm to fishfighter
Posted on 5/22/12 at 3:18 pm to TheHiddenFlask
quote:
Took their current stock price multiply by FB's volume then add in the new 16 billion they just raised from the IPO.
Posted on 5/22/12 at 3:32 pm to monroe71201
Saw this over at Marketticker
Sounds about right. IMO Facebook isn't worth crap.
quote:
Why didn't anyone in the mainstream financial media do the same and widely publish that the FB valuation was way, WAY out of line?
I don't know. Henry Blodget at Business Insider did something similar only today after he and clueless Joe Weisenthal had hyped the IPO in the weeks prior.
Of course, for some unknown reason, Blodget used Google _and_ Apple in the calculations, perhaps to avoid looking too much like the calculations I'd posted all over his site on the day of the IPO and since:
FB 105B mkt cap (initial projection), 2011 profit $1B, mkt cap/earnings = 105
GOOG 195.75B mkt cap, 2011 profit $37.9B, mkt cap/earnings = 5
Something seems very obviously wrong with the FB valuation, doesn't it?
What each FB share would be worth if its IPO mkt cap/earnings ratio is reduced to Google's figure of 5: 5 x 1B earnings / 2.74B shares offered = $1.82/share.
Sounds about right. IMO Facebook isn't worth crap.
Posted on 5/22/12 at 3:39 pm to WNCTiger
quote:
Sounds about right. IMO Facebook isn't worth crap.
But yet there are suckers every day.
Posted on 5/22/12 at 3:41 pm to WNCTiger
quote:
Why didn't anyone in the mainstream financial media do the same and widely publish that the FB valuation was way, WAY out of line?
If you listen to mainstream financial media regularly, I think you would have realized that they were giving a very bearish view of FB. They are always "Rah Rah go equities", and most people were at least mildly bearish.
Posted on 5/22/12 at 3:45 pm to TheHiddenFlask
quote:
Buyers will step in @ 30, only to get their faces ripped off as $FB heads into the low 20's over the next 6 - 12 months. · Reply
Posted on 5/22/12 at 3:55 pm to TheHiddenFlask
Marketticker is an awful, awful website. Its hilarious that they bash Blodget as he's probably the only person who I'd consider worse. Do you remember when prplhze posted his thread that the bird flu was about to cause a global economic crisis in 2010? Sigh.
Posted on 5/22/12 at 4:06 pm to monroe71201
. Insight: Morgan Stanley cut Facebook estimates just before IPO
This get more ridiculous every day.
This get more ridiculous every day.
quote:
"They definitely lowered their numbers and there was some concern about that," he said. "My biggest hedge fund client told me they lowered their numbers right around mid-roadshow." That client, he said, still bought the issue but "flipped his IPO allocation and went short on the first day." "VERY UNUSUAL"
Posted on 5/22/12 at 4:24 pm to TheHiddenFlask
Can you start your online tech stock short etf already so I can buy shares?
Posted on 5/22/12 at 4:42 pm to fishfighter
I don't get it. I see a mature company selling for 75 times earnings in an iffy Market.
Posted on 5/22/12 at 4:52 pm to monroe71201
LINK
quote:
A senior Nasdaq Stock Market official told customers Tuesday afternoon that it would have pulled the plug on Facebook Inc.'s initial public offering had it known the full extent of the technical problems that plagued its systems.
On a conference call with brokers after Tuesday's close, Eric Noll, Nasdaq OMX Group Inc.'s head of transaction services, said the exchange "by no means would have gone forward"
Posted on 5/22/12 at 5:36 pm to Spock
What the frick.
Posted on 5/22/12 at 5:58 pm to TigerDeBaiter
This is getting massively overblown in real terms, unsurprisingly.
Since all it says its "more than $5B" I have no idea what it was, but I'm going to take my own journalistic liberties here and say it was really close to $5B. Given that I'll just use the median estimate on CapIQ, which is $5.07B, which translates into a drop of under 5 percent for 2012.
I said this in the other thread, no one wants to listen, the growth projections for the company are not exponential for 2012, they are exponential far in the future. There is absolutely zero visibility with regard to earnings projections for this stock. ZERO. This is basic financial valuation/time value of money stuff. The revenue projection for the next quarter has almost zero impact on the fundamental valuation. The revenue projection in 2014 or 2015 or 2016 does (when it gets exponential).
quote:
The new revenue forecast was $4.85 billion for 2012, versus more than $5 billion earlier, one of the people said.
For the second quarter of 2012, the new revenue estimate was $1.111 billion, down from about $1.175 billion previously, the person added.
Since all it says its "more than $5B" I have no idea what it was, but I'm going to take my own journalistic liberties here and say it was really close to $5B. Given that I'll just use the median estimate on CapIQ, which is $5.07B, which translates into a drop of under 5 percent for 2012.
I said this in the other thread, no one wants to listen, the growth projections for the company are not exponential for 2012, they are exponential far in the future. There is absolutely zero visibility with regard to earnings projections for this stock. ZERO. This is basic financial valuation/time value of money stuff. The revenue projection for the next quarter has almost zero impact on the fundamental valuation. The revenue projection in 2014 or 2015 or 2016 does (when it gets exponential).
Posted on 5/22/12 at 6:07 pm to Spock
quote:
Spock
the WSJ pulled the article :tinhat:
Posted on 5/22/12 at 6:09 pm to The Easter Bunny
quote:
Can you start your online tech stock short etf already so I can buy shares?
I'm seriously upset that I never did this.
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