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re: Diving deeper on Standard Lithium?
Posted on 7/20/23 at 8:38 am to ThermoDynamicTiger
Posted on 7/20/23 at 8:38 am to ThermoDynamicTiger
I’d like to think this DFS study is complete and Mintak is shopping that for a partner before releasing publicly so it can make a big splash. Who knows.
Maybe Exxon builds and owns the project for this and just licenses the tech from SLI.
Maybe Exxon builds and owns the project for this and just licenses the tech from SLI.
2
Posted on 7/20/23 at 8:39 am to Shepherd88
quote:sounds like we headed to the moon either way
Maybe Exxon builds and owns the project for this and just licenses the tech from SLI.
Posted on 7/20/23 at 9:26 am to SuperSaint
quote:
Maybe Exxon builds and owns the project for this and just licenses the tech from SLI.
I doubt they can license it until a large scale unit is completed and the science is proven on that scale.
But a man can dream
Posted on 7/20/23 at 9:43 am to Elusiveporpi
Posted on 7/20/23 at 9:49 am to Shepherd88
I don’t believe I’ve seen anything that mentions Exxon having or acquiring competing tech, but
could this also be an indication that Exxon has evaluated SLI’s process and is going their own direction?
It looks like the site Exxon picked up in April is contiguous with the Tetra site and Albermarle’s, but not the Lanxess piece.
could this also be an indication that Exxon has evaluated SLI’s process and is going their own direction?
It looks like the site Exxon picked up in April is contiguous with the Tetra site and Albermarle’s, but not the Lanxess piece.
Posted on 7/20/23 at 9:57 am to Santiago_Dunbar
I don’t believe I’ve seen anything that mentions Exxon having or acquiring competing tech, but could this also be an indication that Exxon has evaluated SLI’s process and is going their own direction?
Agreed, I had not seen anything in relation to what method or tech they were planning to use.
And that’s my concern is if they’re going at it on their own completely then that would not spell good for SLI.
That’s always been my concern is Mintak dragging his feet so slow that a big boy will come in a as Kevin O’Leary would say “squash them like a cockroach.”
Agreed, I had not seen anything in relation to what method or tech they were planning to use.
And that’s my concern is if they’re going at it on their own completely then that would not spell good for SLI.
That’s always been my concern is Mintak dragging his feet so slow that a big boy will come in a as Kevin O’Leary would say “squash them like a cockroach.”
Posted on 7/20/23 at 10:08 am to Auburn1968
Who is the artist for the painting and is it a titled work?
I'm just curious cause I think it's interesting and would like to look into it a bit more.
I'm just curious cause I think it's interesting and would like to look into it a bit more.
Posted on 7/20/23 at 10:26 am to Shepherd88
Wasn’t the dream to be the Standard Oil of lithium? Ironic that Standard Oil just came to town and seems very aggressive about becoming a major lithium producer.
Posted on 7/20/23 at 10:35 am to Shepherd88
quote:
I don’t believe I’ve seen anything that mentions Exxon having or acquiring competing tech, but could this also be an indication that Exxon has evaluated SLI’s process and is going their own direction?
Agreed, I had not seen anything in relation to what method or tech they were planning to use.
And that’s my concern is if they’re going at it on their own completely then that would not spell good for SLI.
That’s always been my concern is Mintak dragging his feet so slow that a big boy will come in a as Kevin O’Leary would say “squash them like a cockroach.”
I've lived the licensing of tech from both the big company and little company side of the table. My take:
1. You can't really put much stake in Exxon's decision not to license IF that is the path they took.
2. The way finance works inside a big company is with IRR's that are insanely high, such that anything that requires a big upfront investment has to be a stone cold lock to pay back in 3 years - or less. This makes risk adversity the driving factor in every decision. A new process that has a 95% chance to yield 5x more revenues after 5-7 years will be pushed aside by tried and true that produces a steady revenue in 3 years.
3. Licensing to a big company almost NEVER works for anything but software and drugs. The Bigco's demands on the smallco eat the smallco's resources up, especially where RSI's (Relationship-specific investments) are required, pretty well leaving smallco at the mercy of bigco before major licensing revenues are ever achieved.
The best course for a smallco is always to build itself into a medium-sized company with enough revenue to get bigco's attention and/or start to cause them pain in the marketplace. The low risk option for bigco is then to buy smallco at a nice premium. The "squash 'em like a bug" approach only happens to lone wolf inventors and very small competitors who make themselves a PITA. Play your game and develop tech, and it is ALWAYS in bigco's long term interest to sit back and watch until you're worth buying.
Posted on 7/20/23 at 10:59 am to Shepherd88
This was posted a few minutes ago on the SLI fb investors page, does it make sense?
quote:
I finally saw the SLI cost to build capacity for 25,000 tons annually. Mintak was quoted in WSJ today that it will take 1.5 billion dollars. So if lithium is 70K per ton, it will take 1.5 years to break even in gross sales for build. Guessing maybe another year or two of input costs. But I think they are figuring it out. I am actually excited. DFS and FEED very soon and if the quote is accurate we are going to get rich. Hold on.
Posted on 7/20/23 at 11:03 am to Grassy1
I mean that’s assuming that all revenue is going towards the build out right?That would certainly not be the case, you’re gonna have salaries and a lot of other over head to clear out as well.
Posted on 7/20/23 at 11:32 am to Pierre
two_types_of_dream_by_desexign-
You can do a search for "desexign." Probably come up there.
You can do a search for "desexign." Probably come up there.
Posted on 7/20/23 at 11:43 am to Shepherd88
Per today's news, Exxon wants to produce 75-100k of finished lithium. Will Exxon alone extract enough unfinished lithium to produce this finished amount?
I wonder how much farther along SLI's is on the extraction timeline and how rapidly that gap can be closed by Exxon's money.
I wonder how much farther along SLI's is on the extraction timeline and how rapidly that gap can be closed by Exxon's money.
Posted on 7/20/23 at 12:03 pm to ev247
When Albemarle offered to acquire Liontown, Liontown's DFS had already been out for 16 months. Is that a typical timeline for these kinds of situations?
Posted on 7/20/23 at 12:26 pm to Grassy1
quote:
quote:I finally saw the SLI cost to build capacity for 25,000 tons annually. Mintak was quoted in WSJ today that it will take 1.5 billion dollars. So if lithium is 70K per ton, it will take 1.5 years to break even in gross sales for build. Guessing maybe another year or two of input costs. But I think they are figuring it out. I am actually excited. DFS and FEED very soon and if the quote is accurate we are going to get rich. Hold on.
1.5 billion to build is what they are saying?? That has to be for all 3 phases . I don’t think phase one can produce 25,000 tons
Also 70,000 per ton is pretty high. It’s at 44 now. But does have the potential to grow
Posted on 7/20/23 at 2:47 pm to Shepherd88
quote:
I don’t believe I’ve seen anything that mentions Exxon having or acquiring competing tech, but could this also be an indication that Exxon has evaluated SLI’s process and is going their own direction?
Agreed, I had not seen anything in relation to what method or tech they were planning to use.
Exxon acquired Saltwerx and is partnering with Tetra. Doesn't Saltwerx also do DLE?
quote:
ExxonMobil subsidiary Saltwerx has partnered with Tetra Technologies to develop a 6,100-acre lithium extraction project in southern Arkansas. ExxonMobil acquired Saltwerx earlier this year from Galvanic Energy when it bought drilling rights for 120,000 acres in southern Arkansas for US$100 million.
Saltwerx will contribute 2,000 acres to the partnership and Tetra, a chemical producer that specialises in water treatment and recycling, will contribute 4,100 acres. The partners will leverage direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology that selectively removes lithium ions from brine where it can then be processed into battery-grade material.
Posted on 7/20/23 at 3:24 pm to Lightning
Looking at the saltwerx website doesn't really make it seem like they have any DLE technology. In fact they state that SLI is the only one with a demonstration plant that is actually able to produce lithium. They brag about their lithium concentrations compared to SLI, but I think SLI has had better concentration findings recently.
"Does anyone produce lithium from the Smackover Formation?
Standard Lithium (aka Arkansas Lithium Corp.) currently operates a demonstration plant in conjunction with Lanxess Corp. in Union County and has plans to develop acreage in Lafayette County controlled by TETRA Technologies, Inc."
Saltwerx looks like its just a brine exploration and development company. I could be wrong though. They have certainly acquired a lot of property in conjunction with XOM.
"Does anyone produce lithium from the Smackover Formation?
Standard Lithium (aka Arkansas Lithium Corp.) currently operates a demonstration plant in conjunction with Lanxess Corp. in Union County and has plans to develop acreage in Lafayette County controlled by TETRA Technologies, Inc."
Saltwerx looks like its just a brine exploration and development company. I could be wrong though. They have certainly acquired a lot of property in conjunction with XOM.
This post was edited on 7/20/23 at 3:27 pm
Posted on 7/20/23 at 3:50 pm to ThermoDynamicTiger
Finally read the WSJ article.
I don’t think you can put much stock into that $1.5B.
*disclaimer - this is just how I interpret it, the article didn’t provide great context*
It sounds like that is Mintak’s estimate on what a greenfield project would cost to produce 25k ton/annum. The Lanxess project is brownfield. Wells already exist, supply stream already exists, etc. So this (the $1.5B estimate for 25k ton plant) would be closer to the SW Ark project capex and not the Lanxess capex.
The Lanx project won’t be 25k/annually in total, closer to 20k. And the first phase is only 6k(ish). {edit: the PFS says phase 1 is 9k tonnes. The article says 6k. Not sure which to trust} First phase will be higher capex/ton, because it builds common utilities for the subsequent phases. Total capex for the Lanxess project all phases was just under $500M as of the PEA. Inflation will have that number much higher on the DFS, but Li prices have tripled since then so it’ll offset easily.
First phase opex is around $40M/year. Total Lanxess opex is around $100M/year.
I’m just throwing numbers out for reference at this point. I’m on the phone so may have some errors, hard to look back and forth, will correct if I or anyone spots a mistake.
But ultimately, I don’t think the WSJ numbers are relevant to the Lanx project. Probably more derived from the PFS on the SW Ark project. I sure hope the capex didn’t go up 200% from $500M on the Lanx project. 2019 capex estimate on phase 1 was under $200M. Anything under $400M on the DFS I think is comfortable for phase 1. I’d guess around $300M though.
ETA some more numbers for reference if you want:
SW Ark PEA stated $870M capex for 30k ton. Mintak now thinks $1.5B for 25k. Extrapolate that (yeh yeh) and it’s essentially the same $870M for the Lanxess project. I hope that’s the top end we see on the soon due DFS.
DFS PR by August 9, good buddy’s birthday. Total shot in the dark.
I don’t think you can put much stock into that $1.5B.
*disclaimer - this is just how I interpret it, the article didn’t provide great context*
It sounds like that is Mintak’s estimate on what a greenfield project would cost to produce 25k ton/annum. The Lanxess project is brownfield. Wells already exist, supply stream already exists, etc. So this (the $1.5B estimate for 25k ton plant) would be closer to the SW Ark project capex and not the Lanxess capex.
The Lanx project won’t be 25k/annually in total, closer to 20k. And the first phase is only 6k(ish). {edit: the PFS says phase 1 is 9k tonnes. The article says 6k. Not sure which to trust} First phase will be higher capex/ton, because it builds common utilities for the subsequent phases. Total capex for the Lanxess project all phases was just under $500M as of the PEA. Inflation will have that number much higher on the DFS, but Li prices have tripled since then so it’ll offset easily.
First phase opex is around $40M/year. Total Lanxess opex is around $100M/year.
I’m just throwing numbers out for reference at this point. I’m on the phone so may have some errors, hard to look back and forth, will correct if I or anyone spots a mistake.
But ultimately, I don’t think the WSJ numbers are relevant to the Lanx project. Probably more derived from the PFS on the SW Ark project. I sure hope the capex didn’t go up 200% from $500M on the Lanx project. 2019 capex estimate on phase 1 was under $200M. Anything under $400M on the DFS I think is comfortable for phase 1. I’d guess around $300M though.
ETA some more numbers for reference if you want:
SW Ark PEA stated $870M capex for 30k ton. Mintak now thinks $1.5B for 25k. Extrapolate that (yeh yeh) and it’s essentially the same $870M for the Lanxess project. I hope that’s the top end we see on the soon due DFS.
DFS PR by August 9, good buddy’s birthday. Total shot in the dark.
This post was edited on 7/20/23 at 4:26 pm
Posted on 7/20/23 at 3:53 pm to ThermoDynamicTiger
Something I hadn't thought about until reading Saltwerx's website,
On SLI's Southwest Arkansas project, I believe that SLI will be pumping its own brine. I wonder if they will somehow monetize the incidental bromine the way Lanxess is monetizing their incidental lithium with SLI...
On SLI's Southwest Arkansas project, I believe that SLI will be pumping its own brine. I wonder if they will somehow monetize the incidental bromine the way Lanxess is monetizing their incidental lithium with SLI...
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