re: Diving deeper on Standard Lithium?

Sad that we have one Green Day for the whole year and the share lenders double down to big red us

Maybe I'll do a substantial swing trade on the next peak. That will surely trigger a run up to $70 or more.

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That’s crazy that they’re shutting the plant down for National kentaji brown Jackson day

I didn’t know that was a holiday yet

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I hope these lithium nerd cannucks understand that she isn't a scientist

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I hope these lithium nerd cannucks understand that she isn't a scientist

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She isn't a biologist either!

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Diving deeper on Standard Lithium?
what comes first, back to $6 or up to $9?

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I'm hoping for $6. I'm still adding when the opportunity presents itself.

I know! I know! Go ahead and downvote me.

i hate this stock. it wont moon until i sell it and i aint sellin.

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Fe_Mike, are you still confident about SLI's future and long-term outlook? apologies to put you on spot but your voice is respected.

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To put it mildly: very.

I am looking only at the Lanxess site in most of my investment thesis. The Southwest Arkansas project is something you probably should consider, but I undervalue it because I’m risk averse and frankly it makes the outlook 25% higher than an already kind of ridiculous price target.

I’m pulling these numbers mostly from memory so don’t fact check me but I think it’s close. The forecasted revenue of the Lanxess PEA was about $250M/yr two years ago. At that time the lithium carbonate price used was around $13k/ton. That price has doubled, presently, and is forecasted to reach $60k. The project economics have massively transformed.

Conservatively speaking, you’re looking at $550M revenue on the Lanxess project alone at full capacity with current lithium carbonate prices. Their operating costs have not gone up proportionally and even if they did, that’s still 2X EBITDA in your pocket.

That puts my very conservative price target at ~$25 (granted this is a few years out).

My biggest risk concern, that Standard would lose access to the brine, has been handled by the recent Lanxess agreement. They can totally back out of the JV and Standard still gets brine access.

The cash position is great. The partnership with Koch is great. You start putting in numbers like $60k/ton lithium carbonate prices and the SWA project and you get to Reddit levels of ridiculous pricing pretty quick.

I think we’re gonna see a climb back to ~$10-11 in Q2 in anticipation of pre-FEED (due Q2; not sure if we’ll see this report but we should get news that it’s done and proceeding to FEED). Then once the FEED is released (scheduled Q4) we’ll see a big jump. FID happens in Q1 for another jump. I think $20 by Mar of ‘23 is very realistic to settle into. Might spike higher than this but I think that’d be overvalued before completion of phase 1 which won’t happen til early 2024.

Risk here is still the technology not scaling, reagent costs skyrocketing, and Lanxess business decisions (they can still turn those brine operations off, in which case SLI’s capex triples).

But yeh, I’m still happy here. Sold about 10% of my position for portfolio balancing.

Yup definitely could be a victim of it’s time.

And if they didn’t have $100M in cash on hand from the Koch placement that would be my #1 concern. But they’ve got enough cash to operate til 2030 and if the FEED looks good then raising the capital for the FID will be no problem. So the usual risks of a pre rev company aren’t nearly as prevalent. I think that’s something that is being undervalued. Koch just gave them $100,000,000 in cash. That bank roll alone just about supports their current market cap ha. Forget project NPVs (which if you’re keeping track is about $4B with a $15k/ton lithium carbonate price which equates to a $20/share price….ish)

thanks for the feedback