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re: Diving deeper on Standard Lithium?

Posted on 10/12/21 at 3:50 pm to
Posted by AUHighPlainsDrifter
South Carolina
Member since Sep 2017
3179 posts
Posted on 10/12/21 at 3:50 pm to
Perhaps Mintak could talk Elon into launching some SLI hats into space the next time Space-X goes up.
Posted by jamiegla1
Member since Aug 2016
7553 posts
Posted on 10/12/21 at 4:05 pm to
quote:

let me know which cat food, so I can buy the stock, cause SLI sends out lotsa shirts, etc.

ok how do i get the SLI merch? I only have 4300 shares but that should at least get me a koozie
Posted by jimbeam
University of LSU
Member since Oct 2011
75703 posts
Posted on 10/12/21 at 4:07 pm to
That qualifies for one of their foam coozies.
Posted by Puffoluffagus
Savannah, GA
Member since Feb 2009
6320 posts
Posted on 10/12/21 at 4:13 pm to
Any body still buying? What's the estimated price target on this thing? $20?

I'm cost average'd in around $4 or so.

Debating whether I should pick up a couple of thousand shares at this price point or move on to other potential buys.
Posted by jimjackandjose
Member since Jun 2011
6630 posts
Posted on 10/12/21 at 4:15 pm to
If the potential is what general Lee posted, then market cap is way under valued.

Tetra profits brings 550M per year… do a 9:1 PE on that.

1B market cap is around 7 per share mark.
Posted by AUHighPlainsDrifter
South Carolina
Member since Sep 2017
3179 posts
Posted on 10/12/21 at 4:34 pm to
quote:

Debating whether I should pick up a couple of thousand shares at this price point or move on to other potential buys.


Without some additional PR or a J/V announcement, I think you'll see better buying opportunities than the $8.41 it closed at today. I'm thinking somewhere in the mid-$7's will be available later this week.
Posted by tigerfoot
Alexandria
Member since Sep 2006
58947 posts
Posted on 10/12/21 at 4:38 pm to
I am holding my 5800 shares. I dont want a hat, a coozie, or a shirt. I would like my new pool to have a chiller and heater...therefore I would like them to get to freaking work
Posted by Elusiveporpi
Below I-10
Member since Feb 2011
2637 posts
Posted on 10/12/21 at 4:47 pm to
quote:

ensitivity Analysis
Lithium hydroxide monohydrate battery quality pricing assessment was completed. Project
pricing was based upon a current price of $14,500 US/tonne adjusted for inflation to the start
of production in 2025
.


Its going to be a long road. 2025 as the start of production, im guessing that means commercial production?
Posted by Bit
BR, kayak in marsh, or destin
Member since Feb 2021
47 posts
Posted on 10/12/21 at 4:50 pm to
If the net present value is as high as they are saying then they expect to make most of their money before 2025. Having done NPVs on many chem plant projects, only the first 3 years matter. I would like to see the income versus time for this project. Otherwise, I suspect the NPV is for 2025, which makes this interesting but not as impactful short term. On the other hand, they have the Lanxess project which should fill in the gap short term, I think...
Posted by jamiegla1
Member since Aug 2016
7553 posts
Posted on 10/12/21 at 4:58 pm to
Do they have an SLI prize counter?
Posted by Fe_Mike
Member since Jul 2015
3537 posts
Posted on 10/12/21 at 5:13 pm to
For commercial production of that asset, yes. But the Lanxess plant will be commercialized much more quickly.

Lanxess asset will likely be worth ~$150-200M in revenue (to SLI, depending on the JV split) much more quickly. That alone would justify a market cap around double where we’re at. And there is growth potential on that number.

Put the SWA asset on top of that (let’s hedge it by 30% because it will take dilution or a partnership to hit the CAPEX) and you’re up to
$400M/yr rev by 2025. 10x multiplier and you’re at $33/share fully diluted by 2025, with no other interests or opportunities initiated.

So, very conservatively, you’ve got a strong case for a minimum return of around 25% per year til 2025. With tons of other growth potential around it.

Long road? Meh. Depends on what you’re looking for I guess.
Posted by Elusiveporpi
Below I-10
Member since Feb 2011
2637 posts
Posted on 10/12/21 at 5:26 pm to
Thanks for the clarification. So many irons in the fire with this company.
Posted by Who_Dat_Tiger
Member since Nov 2015
22230 posts
Posted on 10/12/21 at 5:34 pm to
quote:

Any body still buying? What's the estimated price target on this thing? $20?

I'm cost average'd in around $4 or so.

Debating whether I should pick up a couple of thousand shares at this price point or move on to other potential buys.

I have 20k shares at a cost average of $4.50 and I’m still buying at these prices.

I have $40k in cash with a limit buy for 5k shares set at $8.

25k shares has been my goal since the beginning so now I just need share price to drop to $8 one more time please
Posted by Fe_Mike
Member since Jul 2015
3537 posts
Posted on 10/12/21 at 5:35 pm to
Tons.

That’s the great thing to me about Standard. They’ve got an almost operational base to protect your investment, and unreal technology and pipelines to give it exciting growth potential. It is, I think, the lowest risk highest reward stock I’ve ever come across.
Posted by SmackoverHawg
Member since Oct 2011
28915 posts
Posted on 10/12/21 at 5:42 pm to
quote:

I think the predominant theory would be that the PEA had such a ‘definitive’ timeline that the impact of the news is already baked into the price.

Agree. T

quote:

I believe the PEA findings are substantial and may result in a multi day run; but in terms of the typical immediate PR bump, probably severely dampened by so many people already having bought in anticipation of this.


Yep. Need new investors to find it.

quote:

Which isn’t to say I expected that, I really thought we’d be plus 10% minimum today. But that’s the only reasoning I can come up with. There is nothing bad in here, other than the high Capex. But that shouldn’t be restrictive.


The CAPEX was higher than I anticipated but I'll bet it was based on high end estimates and the potential revenue for these things are always conservative. It exceeded my realistic expectations for the PEA. I think they'll be producing 40k tons or more there per year. Assumptions aside, I think this and the Lanxess deal easily justify a $10+ price even without the JV, which is coming.


JV was to be by end of Q4? One thing that may have slowed it is lithium extraction in Germany. With their acquiring of brine sites and mentions of lithium in the brine from areas around the Rhine river, and Lanxess being in Cologne, I have to think it's in play.

Posted by bet84
Texas
Member since Jul 2021
103 posts
Posted on 10/12/21 at 5:43 pm to
A few points jumped out from the PEA:

SLI plans to advance the SWA Project in parallel with the Lanxess Project - so the JV with Lanxess is still in the plans

Projected cost per tonne is $2,599 - I wonder if the cost per tonne of the Lanxess project will also be lower than originally projected?

Management seems to be very strategic:

Will extract from the area with higher lithium grade and reinject into area of lower lithium grade

Has an option on land in the area with existing infrastructure

Plans to unitize as allowed by the Arkansas Brine Statute and seems aware of the regulatory approvals needed

Sounds like the Company can produce both Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide, so the company will be positioned to supply either product


Posted by SmackoverHawg
Member since Oct 2011
28915 posts
Posted on 10/12/21 at 5:47 pm to
quote:

I’m done speculating on timelines with these tardy Canucks any more, and I may be wrong, but I do think it may actually take the JV to capture the rest of the value from the PEA. Until financing is settled and scale up can begin, investors wouldn’t be out of line to continue viewing this as somewhat speculative.


Just add two weeks to the latest date we think it will be.
Posted by SmackoverHawg
Member since Oct 2011
28915 posts
Posted on 10/12/21 at 5:49 pm to
quote:

Otherwise, I suspect the NPV is for 2025, which makes this interesting but not as impactful short term. On the other hand, they have the Lanxess project which should fill in the gap short term, I think...

Yes. Should be breaking ground on Lanxess project by end of this year.
Posted by SmackoverHawg
Member since Oct 2011
28915 posts
Posted on 10/12/21 at 5:52 pm to
quote:

Projected cost per tonne is $2,599 - I wonder if the cost per tonne of the Lanxess project will also be lower than originally projected?


Should be. I've heard as low as $1,500-1,800/ton but we'll have to wait and see. I think it will end up a little lower at Tetra site than what's in the PEA.
Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13875 posts
Posted on 10/12/21 at 6:25 pm to
quote:

SLI plans to advance the SWA Project in parallel with the Lanxess Project


Very interesting wording. My prior understanding was that Tetra was going to be developed only after all the Lanxess leases were developed, but perhaps that thinking has changed.
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