Current Housing Market

Screeching halt, no. But it's certainly calmed down a lot and people are reducing their prices I've seen over the last month. The zillow zestimates are almost all way higher than the listing prices I'm noticing now on pretty much anything I look at. Plenty of properties on the market for multiple weeks now with a price reduction.

Friend of ours after putting in bids on places the last 4-5 months finally got an offer accepted on a place for asking price. She was constantly bidding against people with all cash offers, way over asking price, etc...for condo units. This one she was the only bidder on opening weekend of it being listed and seller accepted her bid, guess they didnt have much else. She was pre-qualified and all, but is financing it.

Supposedly 10% of home purchases this year were flippers. That kind of speculation requires rapid growth and might punish some investors who haven't already sold.

I don't think the market will crash unless interest rates skyrocket or unemployment rises significantly. But the gains seen over the last two years with the combination of multiple stimulus checks and very low interest rates seem likely to reverse.

In some bubble housing markets that will be punishing to recent buyers (but still just reduce gains for people who bought in 10 years ago).

Here are some facts on current housing market. I do not think this is bad news but more coming back to reality.

- 52% of homes sold above list price, down from 53% from last year (June 5 - July 3) Peak of mortgage rates
- Homes that were sold on the market for a median of 18 days, flat from last year
- 48% accepted offer within the first two weeks, while 32% of home that went under contract had an accepted offer within the first week
- On average 7% of homes for sale each week had a price drop - showing that there is less demand and sellers who are not listing their homes realistically are having to come back to reality
- The average sale-to-list price ratio, which measures how close homes are selling to their asking prices, declined to 101.9%. In other words, the average home sold for 1.9% above its asking price. This was down from 102.2% a year earlier.

Overall not seeing big changes from the hot housing market from last year. More than half the of homes out there are still selling above asking price and quickly. Which there are some listing reductions, these are just coming back down to normal levels- Homes listed competitively are flying.

As a mortgage lender, I tell people- date the rate, marry the house. House equity is not going down. That is why there are so many investors in the housing market right now

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Has the housing market come to a screeching halt?

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It depends on where you are, but generally they've cooled off a lot (fewer offers and not getting them as quickly after a property goes on the market).

Just wait til the Fed does another hike after Q2 numbers, that (and increasing prices for fuel and food) will all but shut down housing sales for a while.

Yes, housing market is actively crashing. The numbers aren’t showing up yet, but it’s there in samples. Inventory is exploding and sales aren’t going through, plus prices plummeting. People can’t afford as much house as they could 6 months ago

Edit: numbers not showing up bc a lot of the concrete housing data is based on sales - and if homes aren’t selling, data is slow

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Housing inventory in June was 19% higher than a year ago, but overall inventory is still about half of pre-Covid levels.

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LINK

One thing I’ve noticed in my area is tons of lots for sale. I don’t know if the builders are getting scared a crash is coming or what but they are listing the lot instead of building a house

You’re talking about available homes on the market and I’m talking about how many homes per person nationwide, regardless of availability.

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Active listings for homes jumped 19% in June, the fastest annual pace since Realtor.com began tracking the metric five years ago. And the number of new listings during the month finally surpassed typical pre-Covid levels, up 4.5% from a year ago. Overall inventory, however, is still about half pre-Covid levels.

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Yes we have less homes on the market than pre-Covid since BlackRock was buying homes left and right during Covid. That’s coming back rapidly

Yes it's come to a screeching halt.

Sellers haven't adjusted their expectations yet. Keep in mind they probably wouldn't have to do so just yet. Summer ain't quite over.

Next couple of weeks, I suspect the forced sellers will come down A LOT and then we'll see where it shakes out. My hunch is that we are already down 20% in Austin and will be down another 10-15% by October.