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Mootsman
South Carolina Fan
Charlotte, NC
Member since Oct 2012
5492 posts

Cruise Line / Airline Stocks
More curious as to what the time line for recovery will be on the cruise lines with them opening in August. Went ahead and got in on CCL and NCHL. Also bought some AAL and UAL.

Anybody else get in on these? They look like some of the few remaining that are still well off of their 1Q20 highs and have plenty of room for recovery.


TigerDeBaiter
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2010
9036 posts
 Online 

re: Cruise Line / Airline Stocks
May have missed the boat on this one bud.

Pun intended.



CecilShortsHisPants
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
One Foty Fo uh uh Magnolia Screet
Member since Oct 2012
2093 posts

re: Cruise Line / Airline Stocks
Mostly all cruise and airline stocks are actually above pre-pandemic levels. Stock prices have been diluted during the pandemic. They have little room to run


Mootsman
South Carolina Fan
Charlotte, NC
Member since Oct 2012
5492 posts

re: Cruise Line / Airline Stocks
So you see those two cruise lines continuing to trend 33% below their pre-covid high over the next 12 months?


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Mootsman
South Carolina Fan
Charlotte, NC
Member since Oct 2012
5492 posts

re: Cruise Line / Airline Stocks
The NCHL i bought a month ago is already up 15%.


Hussss
Liberty Fan
Living the Dream
Member since Oct 2016
4603 posts

re: Cruise Line / Airline Stocks
If you are thinking of buying these, it would help to chart the IYT (transports) and keep up with that above all. Most stocks move because of what their entire sector is doing and then on what their entire index is doing that they are included in.

The transports are rolling over. Why? If I had to pinpoint it, I would say severe labor shortages and higher input costs are a good start.

Also, watch corporate debt. JNK, HYG, LQD are good tickers to watch and chart. Debt defaults will be lurking around the bend.


Mootsman
South Carolina Fan
Charlotte, NC
Member since Oct 2012
5492 posts

re: Cruise Line / Airline Stocks
quote:

I had to pinpoint it, I would say severe labor shortages and higher input costs are a good start.


Yeah the fact that both of these lines are trying to mandate that new employees have to have the covid vaccine isn't going to help.

Appreciate the insight.


CecilShortsHisPants
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
One Foty Fo uh uh Magnolia Screet
Member since Oct 2012
2093 posts

re: Cruise Line / Airline Stocks
quote:

The NCHL i bought a month ago is already up 15%


That’s great, good for you. Doesn’t change the fact that these stocks are overpriced. Could they continue to soar? Sure, but logically, no, they’re overpriced and “should” pull back a touch.


Hussss
Liberty Fan
Living the Dream
Member since Oct 2016
4603 posts

re: Cruise Line / Airline Stocks
Exactly right. Not going to help one bit.

All of this crap that the political control freaks create is only making people check out of the system the best they can. Labor shortages are a sign of this as well.


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kywildcatfanone
Kentucky Fan
Wildcat Country!
Member since Oct 2012
81328 posts

re: Cruise Line / Airline Stocks
That ship has sailed.

Pun intended.


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Mootsman
South Carolina Fan
Charlotte, NC
Member since Oct 2012
5492 posts

re: Cruise Line / Airline Stocks
Well there's very little logic in majority of the stocks out there to date. Betting on the irrational investors pumping these up.


CecilShortsHisPants
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
One Foty Fo uh uh Magnolia Screet
Member since Oct 2012
2093 posts

re: Cruise Line / Airline Stocks
Fair enough, just be aware that these aren’t “sleepers” anymore


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Bestbank Tiger
Premium Member
Member since Jan 2005
58672 posts
 Online 

re: Cruise Line / Airline Stocks
Check the debt to asset ratio and the yield (based on the historic dividend).

Some might still be decent buys. Just not as much upside as a year ago.


Chitown_Badger
Chicago Cubs Fan
A one drink walk from Wrigley
Member since May 2013
20480 posts

re: Cruise Line / Airline Stocks
I hold AA, NCLH, and CCL but have had them for a while. I'm pondering my exit point. It may be soon.


Bestbank Tiger
Premium Member
Member since Jan 2005
58672 posts
 Online 

re: Cruise Line / Airline Stocks
quote:

I hold AA, NCLH, and CCL but have had them for a while. I'm pondering my exit point. It may be soon.


I have ALK, DAL, LUV, CCL, and RCL. All of them still have good fundamentals.

My plan (subject to change) is to wait and see which ones reinstate their historic dividends. I'll be getting a good yield if they do. If they don't by spring 2022, I turn the unrealized gainz into realized gainz.


Chitown_Badger
Chicago Cubs Fan
A one drink walk from Wrigley
Member since May 2013
20480 posts

re: Cruise Line / Airline Stocks
I should've gone RCL instead of CCL. Still up but could've done better.


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ldts
Member since Aug 2015
2129 posts

re: Cruise Line / Airline Stocks
I swing trade a few different airlines, but the one I'm holding is VLRS. It's an ultra low cost Mexican airline. Covid knocked out their biggest competitors (one of which was hampered by some bad decisions to begin with). They've done an excellent job taking advantage of this. Their passenger totals and revenue seat miles are showing growth relative to 2019. They were close to break even in the first quarter and are expecting positive cash flow for the second quarter. Obviously the easy money's been made (that's the case with most of them), but they have some good future prospects. Also, here's a good article on them at seeking alpha from one of their cofounders LINK


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slackster
Stanford Fan
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
73480 posts

re: Cruise Line / Airline Stocks
quote:

I have ALK, DAL, LUV, CCL, and RCL. All of them still have good fundamentals.


I’m pretty perplexed by the idea that any of the cruise lines have good fundamentals. Can you explain? They’ll have great numbers, sure, but there debt and market cap is essentially higher than ever. If they ever reinstate dividends, the pure amount of shares issued is going to make it far more expensive to get back to any kind of traditional yield.


632627
Southern Cal Fan
LA
Member since Dec 2011
10693 posts

re: Cruise Line / Airline Stocks
Keep in mind some of the cruise lines (I believe nclh and possibly ccl) issued more shares to raise capital, thus diluting share price.

There was a similar thread a few months back and someone cited that all the cruise lines are still well off their pre-pandemic price per share. Unfortunately, historical share values don’t mean anything when shares are diluted.

I’m with everyone else, the ship has long sailed on these and the cruise lines haven’t operated for over a year. I bought CCL, nclh and rcl during the pandemic and will be exiting soon.


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go ta hell ole miss
New York Yankees Fan
Member since Jan 2007
9820 posts
 Online 

re: Cruise Line / Airline Stocks
quote:

More curious as to what the time line for recovery will be on the cruise lines with them opening in August. Went ahead and got in on CCL and NCHL.


Recovery of cruise stocks was about Early November 2020 through very early March. Look at their numbers last February and discount it by 35% - 50% and you have where the stock needs to go to get back to the equivalent of pre-COVID numbers due to how much dilution they all had (many are above this). NCHL tanked the stock in March when it got to $34 by issuing more stock. It almost made it back to that level today, but could not break through. These stocks are at all time highs (when factoring in dilution) with massive debt.

NCHL had 213 million shares outstanding in February 2020. They now have 369 million shares outstanding. That’s about 70% dilution. They’ve also added a ton of debt since February 2020.

They may go up, but it is not because of fundamentals. I am just holding NCHL until July for long term capital gains to kick in and then I am out. I am just hoping it holds current levels. Good luck!
This post was edited on 6/9 at 11:52 pm


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