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re: Cruise Line / Airline Stocks

Posted on 6/10/21 at 11:04 am to
Posted by Auburn1968
NYC
Member since Mar 2019
19479 posts
Posted on 6/10/21 at 11:04 am to
Made some nice coin on these a few months ago when the vaccines first came out.
Posted by MsState
Member since Jun 2020
17 posts
Posted on 6/10/21 at 5:21 pm to
I did the JETS etf at the beginning of the covid. Bought at 11+, it has done well but I'm wondering if its topped out? Anybody else in this one?
Posted by FMtTXtiger
Member since Oct 2018
3731 posts
Posted on 6/10/21 at 6:22 pm to
NClH has some room to grow so if the market takes a dip , may want to jump in.

Im looking for 45.00 a share.
Posted by Bestbank Tiger
Premium Member
Member since Jan 2005
71069 posts
Posted on 6/10/21 at 9:02 pm to
quote:

Can you explain? They’ll have great numbers, sure, but there debt and market cap is essentially higher than ever.


Debt isn't so high that they're teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. Higher than 15 months ago, sure.

But I avoided AAL because they were at 100%. Bought and held the ones that were likely to survive the pandemic.
Posted by go ta hell ole miss
Member since Jan 2007
13626 posts
Posted on 7/8/21 at 6:53 am to
quote:

They may go up, but it is not because of fundamentals. I am just holding NCHL until July for long term capital gains to kick in and then I am out. I am just hoping it holds current levels. Good luck!


Really wishing I would have just sold and paid the short term taxes at this stage. I was fairly certain that had topped out, but wasn’t expecting this plummet. Basically straight lines down since the OP started this thread and going to be more of the same today.
Posted by Marcus Aurelius
LA
Member since Oct 2020
3900 posts
Posted on 7/8/21 at 11:30 pm to
"Mostly all cruise and airline stocks are actually above pre-pandemic levels. Stock prices have been diluted during the pandemic. "

That is not accurate CCL is about 1/2 the price of 2020 pre Pandemic high. While the easy money has been made, several of these stocks are well below pre pandemic prices.
Posted by go ta hell ole miss
Member since Jan 2007
13626 posts
Posted on 7/9/21 at 4:07 pm to
quote:

That is not accurate CCL is about 1/2 the price of 2020 pre Pandemic high. While the easy money has been made, several of these stocks are well below pre pandemic prices.


I assume you are joking about this. Carnival had 710 million outstanding shares on January 15, 2020. Their share price was 50.44. (Approximately 35 billion market cap). Today they have 1.15 billion shares outstanding with a share price of $24.26. (Approximately 27 billion market cap).

They are about 78% of pre pandemic market cap even though they have taken on massive debt and have not sailed in over 15 months. Their debt has tripled since 2019 to $26 billion.

Thus, they are actually priced well above pre-Covid levels when you consider dilution and debt. Notwithstanding the fact they haven’t cruised in 15 months.
This post was edited on 7/10/21 at 10:53 am
Posted by go ta hell ole miss
Member since Jan 2007
13626 posts
Posted on 7/15/21 at 9:13 am to
quote:

The NCHL i bought a month ago is already up 15%.


These stocks are becoming more reasonably priced now and in line with historical valuations considering how much dilution there has been in the last year and how much debt they have taken on with no income. If you bought in June you should really be loving the current valuations. Personally, I think there is more downside to NCHL, maybe as much as $19 before we see a reversal.
Posted by go ta hell ole miss
Member since Jan 2007
13626 posts
Posted on 7/15/21 at 9:44 am to
quote:

NClH has some room to grow so if the market takes a dip , may want to jump in. Im looking for 45.00 a share.


What is your basis for a $16 billion valuation on Norwegian? That’s lofty even without all the new debt. If you think it can run 85% and have a reason I am curious and definitely interested.
This post was edited on 7/15/21 at 11:40 am
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