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Started By
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CPI increase came in at 4.2% vs expected 3.6%.
Posted on 5/12/21 at 7:34 am
Posted on 5/12/21 at 7:34 am
With as inflation sensitive as the market is right now, this might lead to another selloff today.
LINK
LINK
This post was edited on 5/12/21 at 7:36 am
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Posted on 5/12/21 at 7:39 am to GeneralLee
Sleepy Joe helping the little man afford gas and fresh food.
This post was edited on 5/12/21 at 6:10 pm
Posted on 5/12/21 at 7:40 am to GeneralLee
Futures down 200 points on the Dow.
Posted on 5/12/21 at 7:43 am to GeneralLee
4.2% YoY after an April 2020 .3% YoY. 2.2% annualized number over the last two years.
The Fed is targeting long run inflation of 2%. They’re not going to be phased by these numbers. They’ve said they’ll let it run hot to target that long term number.
The Fed is targeting long run inflation of 2%. They’re not going to be phased by these numbers. They’ve said they’ll let it run hot to target that long term number.
Posted on 5/12/21 at 7:45 am to slackster
We knew the Y/Y would be high due to base effects, and I think everyone here knows my longer term deflationary outlook, but the M/M prints, particularly for Core, are pretty hot. Expect the market to start pricing in some tapering and/or rate hikes, and expect bond yields to rally. We’ll see what those higher rates do to equities trading at all time highs and equity bulls screaming “this time is different,” as if we don’t hear that in every bubble.
This post was edited on 5/12/21 at 7:47 am
Posted on 5/12/21 at 7:47 am to RedStickBR
quote:
We knew the Y/Y would be high due to base effects, and I think everyone here knows my longer term deflationary outlook, but the M/M prints, particularly for Core, are pretty hot.
Yeah I’m not trying to downplay anything. The whole transitory excuse makes sense to me, but I suppose we won’t know for sure until the end of the year or so.
Eta- Used car prices were up like 10% month over month. That’s a short term type of move due to supply crunches, for example.
This post was edited on 5/12/21 at 7:54 am
Posted on 5/12/21 at 7:56 am to GeneralLee
THIS market does the exact opposite of what you think and what makes sense. Expect a rally.
Posted on 5/12/21 at 8:05 am to slackster
Man, y’all have a lot of faith in the gov’t to control the largest, most complex economy the world has ever seen. What have they done over the last several decades to convince you they won’t frick it up?
Posted on 5/12/21 at 8:11 am to Aubie Spr96
quote:
Man, y’all have a lot of faith in the gov’t to control the largest, most complex economy the world has ever seen. What have they done over the last several decades to convince you they won’t frick it up?
I’ve got a decent amount of faith in the Fed, but more than anything, I believe the public is wrong the most. When every single John Doe is talking about inflation, I’m not worried about it. History shows the public is woeful at predicting this stuff.
Posted on 5/12/21 at 8:25 am to RedStickBR
CPI bottomed in May last year so I'd expect another few prints similar in to this. Now if they can pump these price increases into Q421-Q121 I would legit be impressed. I'd imagine there's a demand issue when unemployment gets pulled after July 31st, much like the stimulus last year. Then you have "infrastructure." Let's see if Congress has been resurrected from clown world and are finally serious or if they want to play games for mid terms. I'll bet the latter.
Posted on 5/12/21 at 8:27 am to Hussss
Honestly I’m expecting a rally on open, the CPI isn’t that terrible vs expectations. I would’ve expected worse tbh
Posted on 5/12/21 at 8:30 am to Hussss
quote:
Expect a rally.
Posted on 5/12/21 at 8:31 am to wutangfinancial
quote:I think we all know the answer to this one
Let's see if Congress has been resurrected from clown world and are finally serious or if they want to play games for mid terms. I'll bet the latter.
Posted on 5/12/21 at 9:19 am to TigerTatorTots
We certainly do
Posted on 5/12/21 at 9:21 am to GeneralLee
Can’t just keep printing money. If that $4 trillion “stimulus infrastructure” bs gets passed, it’ll get much worse.
Posted on 5/12/21 at 9:30 am to slackster
quote:
I’ve got a decent amount of faith in the Fed,
I used to, but I think it is reckless for them to be tying their tapering goals to something like unemployment numbers.
quote:
When every single John Doe is talking about inflation, I’m not worried about it
People are talking about it because its visible and obvious. I'm not worried about it in a sense, but I need to do something with this cash if it is going to continue to be worth less and less each day. I think that's the surge you're seeing in hard assets like real estate and commodities. People are hedging themselves against it.
Posted on 5/12/21 at 9:37 am to PotatoChip
Actually, if they can keep the inflation narrative going and get long bond yields up they might be able to attract foreign investors again to finance it. I would guess that is the strategy behind the scenes.
Posted on 5/12/21 at 9:54 am to Pendulum
quote:
Sleepy Joe helping to little man afford gas and fresh food.
If there's no gas to buy, it doesn't matter if you can't afford it... so JOKE'S ON YOU
Posted on 5/12/21 at 9:59 am to slackster
it went up 0.9% month over month in 2021 we have risen by 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.6%, and 0.8%.
that annualizes to a rise of 6%, nearly 3x over the target
this is just getting started... and if the 0.9% continues we will see over 20% inflation on the year
Posted on 5/12/21 at 9:59 am to wutangfinancial
quote:
long bond yields up they might be able to attract foreign investors again to finance it.
what is this 1985
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