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re: CPI comes in hotter than expected, S&P 500 down 1%

Posted on 2/13/24 at 1:29 pm to
Posted by fjlee90
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2016
7838 posts
Posted on 2/13/24 at 1:29 pm to
I think rates hold for most of H1. However, if numbers continue on the current trajectory, we may see an additional 25 basis point increase.
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
33453 posts
Posted on 2/13/24 at 1:33 pm to
quote:

go look at China's market right now and you'll understand.
Understand what?
Posted by boomtown143
Merica
Member since May 2019
6706 posts
Posted on 2/13/24 at 1:43 pm to
quote:

Mostly illegals, part time jobs and multiple job holders.


Gov jobs
Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
89552 posts
Posted on 2/13/24 at 1:49 pm to
quote:

hotter than expected




Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
1947 posts
Posted on 2/13/24 at 1:51 pm to
quote:

I don't see any reason to cut rates at this point. It's not like we are at some extreme level or anything.



Most people's biggest investment is their house, and then on the other end you've got young people that cant afford to get in one at least partly because of rates. Years of having rates so low hyper-inflated housing and it can't be allowed to normalize because of the ramifications for older Americans. The amount of people who basically have no retirement savings and are planning on living on SS with their house as their only real asset would shock you.
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
1947 posts
Posted on 2/13/24 at 1:55 pm to
quote:

When asked most admit they are doing quite well but just happen to lucky or super smart.


If you're looking into financial news or trying to have a financial discussion online, you're already in a small subset of people and don't realize it. People who regularly post here probably earn more on average than even your average TD poster, and are definitely more financially aware. So yeah, those people are doing well. The paycheck to paycheck crowd is suffering, and that (among other things) is why Biden is at like 35% approval.
This post was edited on 2/13/24 at 1:55 pm
Posted by Im4datigers
Northern Virginia
Member since Oct 2003
4465 posts
Posted on 2/13/24 at 2:35 pm to
Dude come on. Seriously
Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
51687 posts
Posted on 2/13/24 at 3:46 pm to
quote:

Reserves don't matter


Can you elaborate on this? Not sure what you mean.
Posted by faraway
Member since Nov 2022
2054 posts
Posted on 2/13/24 at 4:25 pm to
quote:

Food and energy are the least of his problems with respect to current inflation rates.


why do you people even talk as if biden has a clue anything is happening? dementia and hell are his biggest problems.

however, I would say food inflation is a significant political problem.
Posted by Strannix
District 11
Member since Dec 2012
48953 posts
Posted on 2/13/24 at 6:32 pm to
quote:

The 5+ rate cuts narrative from the fall has basically lost all of its momentum.


We need 5 raises
Posted by RoyalWe
Prairieville, LA
Member since Mar 2018
3118 posts
Posted on 2/13/24 at 6:50 pm to
I was told inflation was transitory by the experts.
Posted by cajuntiger1010
Member since Jan 2015
9248 posts
Posted on 2/13/24 at 9:29 pm to
quote:

The paycheck to paycheck crowd is suffering, and that (among other things) is why Biden is at like 35% approval.


Bingo.
Posted by wutangfinancial
Treasure Valley
Member since Sep 2015
11125 posts
Posted on 2/14/24 at 10:38 am to
Yeah, your observation about M1 growth driving inflation can only be true if velocity also went up with it. It nose dived instead and is an indication that the increase is base money in the form of bank reserves which never left the Feds balance sheet. Another way to view it is that it's not an accurate measure of the money supply.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
85008 posts
Posted on 2/14/24 at 11:27 am to
quote:

Dude come on. Seriously


Yes. Seriously.

Point me to a specific thing they’ve done that is politically motivated?

They’ve been right and wrong, sure, but I don’t framing Powell and co as some partisan hacks is quite a leap.
Posted by Hateradedrink
Member since May 2023
1292 posts
Posted on 2/14/24 at 12:43 pm to
I mean Powell has come out and said our deficit is unsustainable

LINK /

Is this political? Maybe, maybe not. Perhaps the question of how to resolve it is political, but the facet of our deficit being a problem doesn’t seem political to me.
Posted by Sterling Archer
Austin
Member since Aug 2012
7325 posts
Posted on 2/14/24 at 12:47 pm to
quote:

I don't see any reason to cut rates at this point. It's not like we are at some extreme level or anything.



You shut your mouth. I'd like to refinance my mortgage soon
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
85008 posts
Posted on 2/14/24 at 1:09 pm to
I guess the broader point is that Powell and the FOMC have done nothing to help Biden, so expecting them to do something because of the election seems foolish.
Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
35354 posts
Posted on 2/14/24 at 1:32 pm to
quote:

I guess the broader point is that Powell and the FOMC have done nothing to help Biden, so expecting them to do something because of the election seems foolish.


There are people on td who unironically believe that oil and gas companies are colluding to HELP biden and the dems get reelected lol.


Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
51687 posts
Posted on 2/14/24 at 7:11 pm to
quote:

indication that the increase is base money in the form of bank reserves which never left the Feds balance sheet.


I didn't think reserves were counted in M1, I thought they were M0?
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
85008 posts
Posted on 2/14/24 at 7:25 pm to
They’re in both.
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