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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 4/4/25 at 7:38 am to beaverfever
quote:
We should follow the 10 year IMO. As long as we’re above 3 I bet there is pain left. It’s really starting to move now.
Lack of new supply is contributing to this move, Bessent has been running down the TGA. This is temporary. Cap gains are the marginal driver of tax receipts. They are about to crater, deficit blows out and rates head back up.
Posted on 4/4/25 at 7:40 am to UltimaParadox
quote:
Going to be a bloodbath today
It has been a bloodbath since mid-February. The fact people are still getting worked up and trading dumb is beyond me.
Denial.
Anger.
Bargaining.
Depression.
Acceptance.
At this point we should be ready leave the bargaining phase and moving into depression over our paper losses.
Posted on 4/4/25 at 7:56 am to beaverfever
quote:
This is a reminder to everyone that shite gets real from time to time. We could easily see another 5-8% come off. What we’ve been seeing over the last 10 years has been abnormal. This correction is partially a correction looking for a narrative. Once the bottom is in we’ll be better off for it.
Honestly, the S&P should be trading around 5130 based on historical averages. It's not like we're in some rocket ship economic conditions or anything. I realize bull markets can go much higher, but things usually revert to the mean eventually.
Posted on 4/4/25 at 7:58 am to SloaneRanger
quote:
We very much need to decouple from China
Covid alone should have accelerated this and btw nothing has happened to China for unleashing Covid on the world. We have done zich to them as punishment. .
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:05 am to DrrTiger
quote:
That’s weird. I was told tariffs only hurt the people in that country. Why would China want to hurt their people like this?
Showing a united front and sticking it to the US is more important to them. And they don't have to worry about midterms, elections etc.
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:08 am to DarthRebel
quote:
The fact people are still getting worked up and trading dumb is beyond me.
Who said anything about trading
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:09 am to castorinho
quote:
Showing a united front and sticking it to the US is more important to them. And they don't have to worry about midterms, elections etc.
Much easier for China to absorb the pain than us. Much more united country
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:15 am to UltimaParadox
quote:
Much easier for China to absorb the pain than us. Much more united country
Someone on Fox Business made a point last night that the more homogeneous a country is it makes it easier for them to stick it out and deal with the pain easier. He named China, Japan, South Korea, as examples. We were on the completely other side which isn't good along with several European countries.
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:26 am to ronricks
This is also giving a chance for Japan and South Korea to cozy up to China and strengthen relationships instead of being in our court. This whole thing is irrational and unnecessary.
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:28 am to slackster
I doubled down yesterday. Guess I’ll triple down today.
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:40 am to beaverfever
quote:
This correction is partially a correction looking for a narrative.
Lol, I guess man.
It’s not like they need to look far
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:41 am to beaverfever
quote:
Slackster, do you think the play is to get countries to chip in to buy our treasuries and refinance the massive amount of debt that’s due. Then they get relief?
I guess that would be some sort of desirable outcome. For the life of me I can’t see the endgame here. I see no point in moving 130 Nike factories from Vietnam to USA.
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:42 am to ronricks
quote:
Someone on Fox Business made a point last night that the more homogeneous a country is it makes it easier for them to stick it out and deal with the pain easier. He named China, Japan, South Korea, as examples. We were on the completely other side which isn't good along with several European countries.
Leave it to Fox to blame black people for tariffs not working.
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:43 am to Motownsix
quote:
I see no point in moving 130 Nike factories from Vietnam to USA.
Sounds like you want real Americans stuck at their dead-end jobs instead of letting them find meaning in real work at the sweatshops.
Posted on 4/4/25 at 8:43 am to Motownsix
quote:
I guess that would be some sort of desirable outcome. For the life of me I can’t see the endgame here. I see no point in moving 130 Nike factories from Vietnam to USA.
I do t think that’s the end goal. I think Trump is just looking to negotiate. He always uses the anchoring technique in his deals.
Posted on 4/4/25 at 9:03 am to mmmmmbeeer
quote:
Leave it to Fox to blame black people for tariffs not working.
That feels like quite the stretch. The analysis is sound. Countries like China are more willing to ride out economic hardship for the perceived greater good than a diverse population would do.
Posted on 4/4/25 at 9:25 am to Motownsix
quote:
I guess that would be some sort of desirable outcome. For the life of me I can’t see the endgame here. I see no point in moving 130 Nike factories from Vietnam to USA.
Cheaper for nike to just pay the tariff. Also keep in mind it's on the raw cost, not retail. Clothes are cheap, the tariff won't be nearly as high as people think.
Posted on 4/4/25 at 9:33 am to mmmmmbeeer
quote:
Leave it to Fox to blame black people for tariffs not working.
How many 'blacks' make up our 40 million illegal immigrants that are here? That was the point. You are so god damn stupid. China, Japan, and South Korea don't have an Illegal Immigrant problem like we do because they are actually smart. 'Diversity' isn't a 'strength' its a hindrance.
This post was edited on 4/4/25 at 9:34 am
Posted on 4/4/25 at 9:52 am to Powerman
quote:
Japan and South Korea to cozy up to China and strengthen relationships
There is some bad blood between them historically
Explain to me why Japan and SK would get cozy with China, instead of working with USA? I know they have tried to get more diplomatic here recently with the Trump actions, however the people of those two countries do not like each other.
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