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CEO: OpenAI will not go public this year
Posted on 9/12/26 at 4:51 pm
Posted on 9/12/26 at 4:51 pm
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If tweet fails to load, click here. Probably for the best if the concerns are legitimate. Investor pressure would only make it worse.
It’s possible that both them and Anthropic actually don’t really have a business. And among the two of them and SpaceX we really probably should consolidate and regulate (I know)
Stakes are pretty high here
Posted on 9/12/26 at 5:51 pm to cgrand
Posted on 9/12/26 at 6:03 pm to MrLSU
“I think” is doing a lot of work in that post
Posted on 9/12/26 at 6:27 pm to cgrand
quote:
“I think” is doing a lot of work in that post
OpenAI’s agent breakouts at RubyGems (May) and Hugging Face (July) are months old so this weekend's wave of reporting and official comment are why his "I think" has validity.
The same group of researchers who published a detailed RubyGems reconstruction yesterday (also broke the German wiki "message board" swarm) which OpenAI confirmed months after. The documented pattern of OpenAI agents leaving test sandboxes, coordinating with each other, hiding activity, and then attacking real systems was already troublesome but if there are agents that escaped and are doing this on a much larger global scale which involves supply chain or identify theft and they are just discovered it well that would not be ideal and would be cause for a delayed IPO as well as pulling the plug comment. Altman's comments could also fit if he feared that the next evaluation went further than the other escape which was Hugging Face.
Posted on 9/12/26 at 7:09 pm to MrLSU
a more cynical explanation is that both OAI and anthropic want governmental regulation and an agreement with China because it’s would be good for business
Both companies incinerate money by the billions. This could be their way to fix their finances
Both companies incinerate money by the billions. This could be their way to fix their finances
Posted on 9/12/26 at 8:16 pm to cgrand
What OpenAI does has nothing to do with Anthropic. I fully expect Anthropic to go public.
I do think that the models are progressing faster than anyone could have expected and the unknowns are growing. I’m not a doomer and see a ton of near term benefits.
I do think that the models are progressing faster than anyone could have expected and the unknowns are growing. I’m not a doomer and see a ton of near term benefits.
Posted on 9/12/26 at 10:17 pm to lynxcat
Then again it could also be based on rumors that Google has achieved RSI. If Google actually crossed into meaningful recursive self-improvement not just AI-assisted coding or kernel tweaks, but a tighter loop where models reliably improve the next generation of models then competitive AI picture would shift fast.
Anthropic would feel it first. They currently hold the lead on several frontier benchmarks and have already said RSI-style dynamics (Claude writing most of their internal code) are underway internally. A Google leap would threaten that lead because DeepMind still has unmatched infrastructure scale and TPU capacity. Anthropic’s likely response would be to lean harder into its safety brand and the “pace the frontier” position Dario Amodei just took, while accelerating its own self-improvement loops so it does not fall behind. Their high valuation and upcoming public-market plans would come under pressure if Gemini suddenly started compounding faster.
OpenAI is in a similar spot. They have been explicit about wanting an automated research intern and already use models to speed up their own work. A confirmed Google RSI advantage would force them to choose between matching the pace (risking the safety concerns they just endorsed) or accepting a capability gap. Their consumer scale and Stargate compute build-out would still be assets, but the efficiency edge of a working self-improvement loop is hard to offset with raw spend alone.
Anthropic would feel it first. They currently hold the lead on several frontier benchmarks and have already said RSI-style dynamics (Claude writing most of their internal code) are underway internally. A Google leap would threaten that lead because DeepMind still has unmatched infrastructure scale and TPU capacity. Anthropic’s likely response would be to lean harder into its safety brand and the “pace the frontier” position Dario Amodei just took, while accelerating its own self-improvement loops so it does not fall behind. Their high valuation and upcoming public-market plans would come under pressure if Gemini suddenly started compounding faster.
OpenAI is in a similar spot. They have been explicit about wanting an automated research intern and already use models to speed up their own work. A confirmed Google RSI advantage would force them to choose between matching the pace (risking the safety concerns they just endorsed) or accepting a capability gap. Their consumer scale and Stargate compute build-out would still be assets, but the efficiency edge of a working self-improvement loop is hard to offset with raw spend alone.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 9/12/26 at 10:43 pm to cgrand
It’s possible that both them and Anthropic actually don’t really have a business.
I think it’s pretty obvious at this point. Every cool AI story ends with “it only took $20 million+ in tokens”
People bitch about $20/mo for Netflix. Aside from a couple corporations, good luck finding an audience willing to pay $10k/mo to pay for the data centers.
I think it’s pretty obvious at this point. Every cool AI story ends with “it only took $20 million+ in tokens”
People bitch about $20/mo for Netflix. Aside from a couple corporations, good luck finding an audience willing to pay $10k/mo to pay for the data centers.
Posted on 9/13/26 at 4:55 am to MrLSU
Hugging face left api keys in a public repo. That's not exactly some elaborate hack. It's akin to someone leaving their password on a sticky note on their monitor....
Posted on 9/13/26 at 7:37 am to cgrand
OpenAI financials are an absolute disaster everyone knows it. They have no real path to profitability right now as models are switching to efficiency gains.
Open models are catching up fast and do well enough to avoid the massive costs of frontier models which are not improving enough to justify their massive cost increase.
Users aren't paying for AI, and businesses that do pay prefer anthropic.
Anthropic isn't making money yet either. As they approach IPO they will ratchet up the stories of AI dangers as they have shown it drives fear and investments. Even though it's clear Dario just wings it for the last 5 years.
Open models are catching up fast and do well enough to avoid the massive costs of frontier models which are not improving enough to justify their massive cost increase.
Users aren't paying for AI, and businesses that do pay prefer anthropic.
Anthropic isn't making money yet either. As they approach IPO they will ratchet up the stories of AI dangers as they have shown it drives fear and investments. Even though it's clear Dario just wings it for the last 5 years.
This post was edited on 9/13/26 at 7:39 am
Posted on 9/13/26 at 7:39 am to cgrand
Yes, a lot of time companies like regulations because it makes it harder for competitors, especially ones with less means to be competitive because compliance costs money.
Interesting too see how this plays out. Seems we have this every 6-8 weeks where there is a shakeout and then march forward.
Interesting too see how this plays out. Seems we have this every 6-8 weeks where there is a shakeout and then march forward.
Posted on 9/13/26 at 11:28 am to cgrand
quote:
This could be their way to fix their finances
Bingo. Oh no, the Chinese are kicking our arse with open source and a tenth of the compute. Our trillion dollar circle jerk financing scheme might unravel. Daddy, please govern us harder.
Posted on 9/13/26 at 12:35 pm to Art Blakey
It’s all about regulation. Frontier lab companies are impressive as hell but ultimately worthless. And that is a HUGE problem for the entire ecosystem.
Posted on 9/13/26 at 1:32 pm to beaverfever
quote:maybe for a portion of the ecosystem but software applications running on open source models are where my money is. Plus, you’ve not heard a peep out of Meta and Google, both of whom have their own models ramping and they are actual profitable businesses with moats.
And that is a HUGE problem for the entire ecosystem.
the cream will rise to the top and the market will skim it. Just depends on where your cup is. It’s possible that the circular finance scheme (up to and including government and agency lobbying) is somewhat segregated from the “AI trade” on a larger scale
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