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re: Call the bottom on JPM
Posted on 6/2/12 at 9:12 am to ich1baN
Posted on 6/2/12 at 9:12 am to ich1baN
quote:
is why JPM sold assets off worth 25 bn... most likely margin calls on their IR swap desk.
Which interest rates are you referring to?
Everything I've read said the hedge position which JPM lost on was on credit default swaps, not interest rate swaps. Do you have a link supporting your IR swap statement?
1
Posted on 6/2/12 at 9:18 am to LSURussian
The loss is likely related to IG9, it is speculation among many insiders about IR swaps.
Posted on 6/2/12 at 12:41 pm to ich1baN
quote:
it is speculation among many insiders about IR swaps.
Link?
Posted on 6/2/12 at 1:37 pm to LSURussian
With all due respect to those of you who think JPM will literally be nothing before too long, I think you're over reacting. A $2 billion dollar mess up will not cost a multi billion dollar STABLE company who has been around for a while to fall out. JPM is also U.S. based-- so although Europe is affecting it, it won't be devastating.
It's okay-- you're over reacting like the rest of them. Including Sheila from FCIC.
It's okay-- you're over reacting like the rest of them. Including Sheila from FCIC.
Posted on 6/2/12 at 7:05 pm to LSUTigers00884
quote:I"m over reacting for asking for a link from the OP?
I think you're over reacting.
Posted on 6/2/12 at 8:19 pm to LSURussian
Not you- other guy
Posted on 6/2/12 at 9:48 pm to LSUTigers00884
You replied to me.
Posted on 6/3/12 at 4:17 pm to LSURussian
Let's not forget that ichiban is an internal corporate investment banker who also works on the flow desk at JPM. I'm sure he knows the extent of the loss firsthand, he's just being modest here. Pretty standup for a guy that made 7MM in the market in 2007-2009 while still in school but who is also in his 30s and holding out on getting an MBA or MSF to get some more experience first. Pretty awesome tale of success if you ask me. 
Posted on 6/4/12 at 11:08 am to kfizzle85
quote:
You know the CDS trade was a paper loss yes? Probably no. Under the false assumption that it wasn't a paper loss, do you really think a bank with $56 BILLION is facing liquidity issues over a $2B trading loss? I really can't tell if you're trolling or not, if so you're great at it cause you get me every time.
I will defer to your superior financial knowledge. Hey, I'm simple. I had a hard time swallowing the story about selling to boost profits. It did not make sense to me that the bank would sell approx. $25 billion in what has been described in the media as good assets to cover this.
In the Bimbo household, we don't start selling the good stuff unless we need actual $$$$.
Posted on 6/4/12 at 5:03 pm to TheHiddenFlask
Closed @ 31 today. Drink up, Shriners..
Posted on 6/4/12 at 5:38 pm to Blakely Bimbo
quote:
It did not make sense to me that the bank would sell approx. $25 billion in what has been described in the media as good assets to cover this.
BASEL compliance can be a mother fricker.
Posted on 6/4/12 at 6:30 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Closed @ 31 today.
anyone on here think it's going below 30?
I'm starting to lean that way just because so many people are over reacting IMO. No fact based analysis here. I just repeat what I see.
Posted on 6/4/12 at 9:07 pm to LSUTigers00884
I'm still maintaining when JPM gets knocked down to yield 5% or so, or when it's PE equals its dividend yield it may bottom. Just throwing that out there....
I think there are easier ways to make money. Who knows what one would be investing in, in JPM. I have no frickin comprehension of exactly what they did, I'll find an easier business model without Europe/financial exposure
Disclosure I did think they were a best of breed American bank.
I think there are easier ways to make money. Who knows what one would be investing in, in JPM. I have no frickin comprehension of exactly what they did, I'll find an easier business model without Europe/financial exposure
Disclosure I did think they were a best of breed American bank.
Posted on 6/4/12 at 9:11 pm to greenhead11
quote:
I'm still maintaining when JPM gets knocked down to yield 5% or so, or when it's PE equals its dividend yield it may bottom. Just throwing that out there....
So either $24 or $23.25. Ouch, that's a big haircut even from here, like March 2009 levels
Posted on 6/4/12 at 9:31 pm to Blakely Bimbo
Given that you just compared your personal financial management to the financial management of a 2 trillion dollar bank...I mean, please just stop. 
Posted on 6/4/12 at 10:43 pm to The Easter Bunny
March lows may be a bit of extreme but with out technical support, and a black eye I just can't see JPM finding solid ground beneath their feet during a down market till they yield 4-5%. Maybe they'll find some support at the $27 range- their previous Oct/Nov lows. But Generally when you cross the 3% yield threshold you attract X number new dividend investors. And then there is the 4-5% yielding range that brings in additional support and makes shorting the stock a little bit more risky. Shorts will have to make 5% to break even.
But why go bottom fishing, I'm more of suspended bait/ top water fan
But why go bottom fishing, I'm more of suspended bait/ top water fan
Posted on 6/5/12 at 6:54 am to kfizzle85
quote:Ouch.
Let's not forget that ichiban is an internal corporate investment banker who also works on the flow desk at JPM. I'm sure he knows the extent of the loss firsthand, he's just being modest here. Pretty standup for a guy that made 7MM in the market in 2007-2009 while still in school but who is also in his 30s and holding out on getting an MBA or MSF to get some more experience first.
I had forgotten
Posted on 6/5/12 at 8:51 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
Closed @ 31 today.
Back when the news about JPM's troubles was announced someone on here asked me how far might the stock drop. Its price was about $41 at the time.
I wrote that I could see it pulling back 25% from its pre-announcement level.
I think at $30-31 price levels the stock is right at a 25% pullback.
Posted on 6/5/12 at 9:32 am to greenhead11
FWIW I agree with your comment about being much easier ways to make money. I'm never commenting to advocate someone invest in X versus Y, I'm always only commenting for the sake of talking about finance.
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