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Call the bottom on JPM

Posted on 5/15/12 at 9:37 am
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 5/15/12 at 9:37 am
I'm definintely getting in, just trying to figure out my timing.

When does the bottom happen between now and next earnings report?
Posted by greenhead11
Member since Feb 2012
922 posts
Posted on 5/15/12 at 10:08 am to
The problem with JPM is the Europe exposure. I've got my eye on it, but am sitting on the sidelines till Europe fixes itself or JPM gets knocked down so much it's yielding above 4%.

I think you'll have some pretty strong buyers if it yields above 4% without a dividend increase (around $30) I'd be a buyer.

Its technicals are beginning to look oversold now. 25 day RSI is just above 30
This post was edited on 5/15/12 at 10:08 am
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 5/15/12 at 10:12 am to
If there are no more unpleasant revelations, the bottom may have been yesterday when the price got down to just a bit above tangible book value.

If there are more problems, the bottom is a ways off.

Just curious, your employer doesn't consider it a conflict of interest for you to purchase stock in another bank? Years ago when I worked for a bank, if we bought or owned stock in a direct competitor we had to fill out a form disclosing that fact. And sometimes the person was told it was a no-no and he should sell, especially if the person was in senior management.
Posted by C
Houston
Member since Dec 2007
27829 posts
Posted on 5/15/12 at 10:22 am to
quote:

especially if the person was in senior management.


:insert comment about THF being a teller:
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 5/15/12 at 10:30 am to
quote:

Just curious, your employer doesn't consider it a conflict of interest for you to purchase stock in another bank? Years ago when I worked for a bank, if we bought or owned stock in a direct competitor we had to fill out a form disclosing that fact. And sometimes the person was told it was a no-no and he should sell, especially if the person was in senior management.


They have never told me anything about it. I don't currently have to disclose any of my trades to my bank, but that may be changing soon (hopeuflly). Even then, it would just be for SEC compliance.

My bank is really laid back about all things related to the stock market. They give a 15% discount on complany stock purchased with up to 15% of my paycheck and there is no lockup period. I buy the max amount every month and turn right around and sell it.
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 5/15/12 at 10:32 am to
quote:

:insert comment about THF being a teller:


It's got to be one of the biggest aggrivations that I have working for a big name bank. I can't explain to anyone outside of finance what I do, unless I drop numbers on the size of the loans. However, if I do that, they either don't believe me or they think I'm bragging, or usually, both.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 5/15/12 at 10:34 am to
quote:

unless I drop numbers on the size of the loans.
So did you advise your bank to go all in on Greek debt???
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 5/15/12 at 10:39 am to
quote:

So did you advise your bank to go all in on Greek debt???


Yeah, but luckily, our worthless CDS desk got arse backawards in the risk and ended up making a couple billion.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 5/15/12 at 10:47 am to
Posted by NC_Tigah
Carolinas
Member since Sep 2003
124129 posts
Posted on 5/15/12 at 11:22 am to
quote:

Call the bottom on JPM
This should be it.
Predicted earnings this year are pushing $18Bn even with the hedge losses. Looking for a >10% recovery over the next month or so. Quality company IMO.

Disclosure: JPM is a personal holding of ours at a ~36 LT basis. So we're down a bunch over the past couple of weeks.
Posted by whodatigahbait
Uptown
Member since Oct 2007
1757 posts
Posted on 5/15/12 at 12:00 pm to
quote:

They have never told me anything about it. I don't currently have to disclose any of my trades to my bank, but that may be changing soon (hopeuflly). Even then, it would just be for SEC compliance.


switching from the commercial side to investment side?
Posted by GeauxColonels
Tottenham Fan | LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2009
25604 posts
Posted on 5/15/12 at 1:34 pm to
quote:

However, if I do that, they either don't believe me or they think I'm bragging, or usually, both.

You're definitely not bragging...but I don't believe you either.
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 5/15/12 at 1:52 pm to
quote:


You're definitely not bragging...but I don't believe you either.


I'd have more time to brag if you would be in the office more.
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 5/15/12 at 1:53 pm to
quote:

switching from the commercial side to investment side?


Hoping to rotate through the investment side. It's supposed to be part of the program, but I've honestly been in the dark about it recently.
Posted by Chris Farley
Regulating
Member since Sep 2009
4180 posts
Posted on 5/15/12 at 3:01 pm to
quote:

My bank is really laid back about all things related to the stock market. They give a 15% discount on complany stock purchased with up to 15% of my paycheck and there is no lockup period. I buy the max amount every month and turn right around and sell it.


My firm(not a bank) won't let us trade any individual securities, only mutual funds and ETFs. Only way I could buy a stock was if I made a written and oral plea to our president explaining that there was no client conflict. But that just doesn't seem worth it to me unless I'm going to invest a good amount of money...that I don't have.
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 5/15/12 at 3:52 pm to
quote:


My firm(not a bank) won't let us trade any individual securities, only mutual funds and ETFs. Only way I could buy a stock was if I made a written and oral plea to our president explaining that there was no client conflict. But that just doesn't seem worth it to me unless I'm going to invest a good amount of money...that I don't have.


Agreed. If I have to report my trades, it's going to kill trading for me.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Carolinas
Member since Sep 2003
124129 posts
Posted on 5/15/12 at 5:37 pm to
quote:

My firm(not a bank) won't let us trade any individual securities, only mutual funds and ETFs. Only way I could buy a stock was if I made a written and oral plea to our president explaining that there was no client conflict. But that just doesn't seem worth it to me unless I'm going to invest a good amount of money...that I don't have.
Whoa! That sucks.
Posted by whodatigahbait
Uptown
Member since Oct 2007
1757 posts
Posted on 5/15/12 at 6:27 pm to
quote:

quote:


My bank is really laid back about all things related to the stock market. They give a 15% discount on complany stock purchased with up to 15% of my paycheck and there is no lockup period. I buy the max amount every month and turn right around and sell it.




My firm(not a bank) won't let us trade any individual securities, only mutual funds and ETFs. Only way I could buy a stock was if I made a written and oral plea to our president explaining that there was no client conflict. But that just doesn't seem worth it to me unless I'm going to invest a good amount of money...that I don't have.


my firm's policy isn't that bad but close to it. i have to get pre clear approval for any trade from both compliance and one of my superiors, every single time i want to make a trade even on ETFs.
This post was edited on 5/15/12 at 6:28 pm
Posted by JMTIGER85
New Orleans
Member since Dec 2006
807 posts
Posted on 5/15/12 at 10:33 pm to
Are you in BR or NOLA. I work at the same bank.
This post was edited on 5/15/12 at 10:34 pm
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 5/16/12 at 6:19 am to
BR.
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