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re: Bloody few days, especially for me.

Posted on 7/2/15 at 8:57 pm to
Posted by Ole War Skule
North Shore
Member since Sep 2003
3409 posts
Posted on 7/2/15 at 8:57 pm to
Don't be modest. You kicked arse
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
23478 posts
Posted on 7/2/15 at 9:16 pm to
quote:

I caught the bull market run from 2009 until now
If I'd had known then what I know now I would have taken out student loans to invest!
F, DOW, BAC, the list is endless...I'm glad someone profited.
Posted by BennyAndTheInkJets
Middle of a layover
Member since Nov 2010
5809 posts
Posted on 7/3/15 at 2:10 pm to
quote:

I'm curious to those who are in the buy individual stocks camp vs just buying equity index funds. Are you doing this with your entire retirement portfolio? Is all your money in the market at the same time? What's the max percentage of your portfolio that you would put towards 1 stock?

Also, I wonder how big your portfolios are. Once your portfolio is well into 6 or 7 figures; I just can't imagine buying individual stocks at those amounts. I wouldn't be able to sleep at night.


If your experience in the financial markets is limited to a personal trading account and watching CNBC, then there is a strong likelihood you should probably stick to index funds (active versus passive, equities versus fixed income is a completely different discussion).

There is absolutely nothing wrong with that, not everybody works professionally in the business and not everybody has the time to devote to learn the ins-and-outs of the market, both operationally and fundamentally. I've worked with traders that have been in the business since the 70's, and almost everyone has lost their arse at one point or another. So even if you are a professional and the financial markets are basically your life, that still doesn't preclude you from getting your fricking face ripped off by the market. Of course the opposite can easily be true, complete amateurs have hit early retirements from concentrated risks. But on average, your standard retail investor that dabbles in individual stock picking, FX, etc. will lose money more often than not.
This post was edited on 7/3/15 at 2:14 pm
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 7/3/15 at 4:44 pm to
He majority of this board is pretty young, so the accounts are probably under $100k. Russian and Iowa Golfer are the two posters that come to mind as likely to be significantly above 100k.
Posted by Jag_Warrior
Virginia
Member since May 2015
4292 posts
Posted on 7/7/15 at 1:19 pm to
The old "sell in May and go away" would have actually worked this year... at least for techs, energy, momo stocks and more than a few other sectors. I don't mind being down a few percent when there is an overall downdraft. But I do need to better understand why the technical trading models that I use failed so miserably. Time to analyze what happened, run some back-testing and rejigger, it seems.

My trading accounts took the biggest hits. My investment accounts basically tracked the market +/-, and I'm not wound up about that. But had the technicals worked as intended in the trading accounts, I should have been shorting certain stocks and avoiding most longs across the board. If I had shorted or bought puts/sold calls on several that are on my watchlist (MU, BABA, GPRO, ZAGG, SCTY, etc.), I would easily have been up 10-15% in the past 30 days.

I'm still up for the year in all accounts. But over the past month, I've also given a tremendous amount back to the house by zigging when I should have been zagging.

As an aside, when I first started posting here, I posted a thread where I asked if people determined BEFORE buying a stock if they were in it to trade it or if it was (truly) an investment. A trade that goes bad, but you hold onto it to "get even again", is not an investment. And at least on a trade, dollar cost averaging a TRADE, as it falls from the sky (just to prove that you were right) is a classic trading mistake. And yes, at some point, all of us have done that. I read threads here all the time where people are admitting that they're doing that, without realizing it to themselves. There are some excellent books out there about the psychology of trading. IMO, the more a person can do to take the emotion out and introduce a rules based trading methodology, the better off they'll be... if they're TRADING, not investing.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
23478 posts
Posted on 7/7/15 at 1:31 pm to
quote:

As an aside, when I first started posting here, I posted a thread where I asked if people determined BEFORE buying a stock if they were in it to trade it or if it was (truly) an investment. A trade that goes bad, but you hold onto it to "get even again", is not an investment. And at least on a trade, dollar cost averaging a TRADE, as it falls from the sky (just to prove that you were right) is a classic trading mistake. And yes, at some point, all of us have done that. I read threads here all the time where people are admitting that they're doing that, without realizing it to themselves. There are some excellent books out there about the psychology of trading. IMO, the more a person can do to take the emotion out and introduce a rules based trading methodology, the better off they'll be... if they're TRADING, not investing.
Maybe the best advice I've read on this board.
Posted by LSU0358
Member since Jan 2005
8082 posts
Posted on 7/7/15 at 1:56 pm to
quote:

A trade that goes bad, but you hold onto it to "get even again", is not an investment. And at least on a trade, dollar cost averaging a TRADE, as it falls from the sky (just to prove that you were right) is a classic trading mistake. And yes, at some point, all of us have done that.


Agreed. No method will ever compensate for poor risk management.
Posted by OnTheBrink
TN
Member since Mar 2012
5418 posts
Posted on 7/7/15 at 2:15 pm to
Yeah, I am just going to ignore Jag_Warrior cause that was/is totally me with EXXI, but his/her post did remind about EXXI so I went to the see the damage for today and what the hell happened in oil midday? Anyone know or have a guess?
This post was edited on 7/7/15 at 3:37 pm
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
23478 posts
Posted on 7/7/15 at 2:50 pm to
quote:

what the hell happened in oil midday? Anyone know or have a guess?


The U.S. government on Tuesday modestly raised its 2015 and 2016 U.S. crude oil production forecasts while lowering its price outlook.
In its short term energy outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its 2015 U.S. crude oil production growth forecast to 750,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 720,000 bpd.

Why the hell that made energy stocks go up...I have no clue. It makes no sense to me. But, they all rebounded after that news.
This post was edited on 7/7/15 at 2:51 pm
Posted by L S Usetheforce
Member since Jun 2004
23212 posts
Posted on 7/7/15 at 2:52 pm to
I've been in This boat for a year now but I never sold....I actually enjoy the lows because it has helped my cost basis significantly....oil down has always rebounded, just being patient
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10598 posts
Posted on 7/7/15 at 2:57 pm to
I'm with you Force. I'm a contrarian. Even on PAL, before it turned in to PALDF, I averaged down until the bitter end, and got out with a minimal loss. I averaged down hard on EXXI, and also took an acceptable loss there. Losses, but neither were huge.
Posted by LSUtoOmaha
Nashville
Member since Apr 2004
26699 posts
Posted on 7/7/15 at 3:24 pm to
I am thinking about moving all of my 401k to an S&P 500 index fund. I don't like these "35-to gos" very much.
Posted by Old Sarge
Dean of Admissions, LSU
Member since Jan 2012
61231 posts
Posted on 7/7/15 at 5:22 pm to
I'm down about 5k but I'm a long way from retirement so I'm not sweating it.
Posted by Jag_Warrior
Virginia
Member since May 2015
4292 posts
Posted on 7/7/15 at 9:55 pm to
That made me think of a joke John Madden told back in the 80's. It's a joke, so nobody take it as more than that.

John said he walked into the Raiders' locker room one day, and this big lineman was throwing a $100 bill into the toilet. Then he takes his Rolex off and drops it in too. John goes over and asks him what he's doing. The guy said, "I accidentally dropped a quarter in the toilet and I'm making it worth my while to stick my hand in and get it back out."

Yeah, I know. But it's stayed with me as a good dollar cost trading joke for a long time.

Try the veal and don't forget to tip your waitress.
Posted by Jag_Warrior
Virginia
Member since May 2015
4292 posts
Posted on 7/8/15 at 12:13 am to
Sorry about that. After reading through that thread, I now feel your pain... and that of quite a few others. I've done every single thing, at one time or another, that was in that thread though. I never tried to catch that particular falling knife. But I have old scars from other blades.

As a peace offering, I offer you this. I haven't bought any of his products, but I've communicated with him a few times on some general topics, mainly to do with trading systems and Level 2. Without being a paying customer, he's not going to go out of his way to provide info, but he seems a pretty straight up character. And at least from a trading psychology perspective, I think he tells it like it is and doesn't pull any punches. What's on this linked page may provide some valuable info or lessons to some of our MB brethren who seemed to be relying on "hopium" in that EXXI thread.

Why Most Stock Traders Fail
Posted by Blakely Bimbo
Member since Dec 2010
1183 posts
Posted on 7/8/15 at 10:50 am to
BREAKING NEWS - NYSE halts trading due to Technical Issues. Earlier today United Airlines had to suspend flights due to technical issues, but flights have resumed.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
23478 posts
Posted on 7/8/15 at 10:52 am to
This is thread worthy haha
Posted by STLhog
Dallas, TX
Member since Jan 2015
18758 posts
Posted on 7/8/15 at 11:00 am to
FIT is saving my arse right now.

The rest of my portfolio is a slaughterfest.
Posted by Coeur du Tigre
It was just outside of Barstow...
Member since Nov 2008
2979 posts
Posted on 7/8/15 at 1:40 pm to
quote:

Anytime I start thinking about getting cute, I come on this board and read about people who know far more than I do getting their asses handed to them. Then I just keep plugging away at my nice, big index funds

Amen, Lawd. Index funds are not sexy but if you know anything about yourself and your lyin' ways, they're the only option.
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