re: Bitcoin is dropping like a rock. Down to 99,200

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Let's say I accept this premise...OK, now do your fundamental analysis on it to come up with a predictive price. Is it worth $85K? $1K? $1M?

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You can do your own research, confirm what I state below and more

It is estimated to take approximately 3 million qubits to break Bitcoin's current network in 24 hours and 317 million quibits to break it in 1 hour. There are roughly a hundred known companies and research teams in the world that are working on quantum computing technology. Most have quantum computer capabilities in the 10s or hundreds of qubits. The best I have heard of is over 1300 qubits, and two research teams (I believe Harvard/MIT) are predicting they will be at approximately 3000 and 5000 qubits of quantum computing power in 2026.

I can't do a fundamental analysis on Bitcoin. I just know it will keep going up over the long term. It is still a new asset class and a great opportunity. It scares off the average investor though as they trade emotionally with the herd. Even with the recent prolonged downtrend and sideways price action, Bitcoin is getting less and less available on exchanges over time.

I understand that Bitcoin whales keep offloading Bitcoin as it goes higher in price and newby investors in the Spot ETFs and Bitcoin get shaken out of the market on downturns. Whale activity will continue to diminish over the years. The tail winds keep building. There will be supply side squeezes in the future.

Earlier this month, Vanguard finally announced it's whopping 50 million customers now have access to buy and trade Bitcoin Spot ETFs in their retirement and brokerage accounts. In the same time frame, Bank of America just announced it's over 15,000 advisors can start proactively discussing investing in Bitcoin ETFs with a guideline of 1% to 4% of their portfolio. Fidelity, Black Rock, Morgan Stanley and other financial giants are already doing this.

Bitcoin is not going anywhere but up in the long term. Everyone will buy Bitcoin at the price they deserve. The herd panic buys when Bitcoin rises and unfortunately the herd sells when Bitcoin stalls and trades downwards.

When there's blood in the water and Bitcoin just keeps dropping and everyone is yelling the sky is falling, just know that I am incrementally buying BITX all the way down. My unrealized significant losses are really just dollar cost averaging into lower and lower prices before Bitcoin eventually recovers. I'm one of the very few who can stomach it.

Nice chatting with you. Best of luck in your investments and trading.

Hey Big Scrub TX, just FYI you can actually do a fundamental analysis of Bitcoin. I'm not interested in doing it because I hold long term positions in actual Bitcoin and Bitcoin ETFs/Derivatives that just ride the Bitcoin volatility rollercoaster plus I frequently trade Bitcoin volatility between BITX and trading cash in our retirement accounts. That's how I make money in my early retirement. I dump the profits into ever growing stacks of BITO shares and more cash each month.

Since Bitcoin is not a company you can't analyze it like a company looking at Balance Sheets, Income Statements, PE ratios, etc., nor investigate other tangible items like supply costs, labor costs, etc.

But you can fundamentally analyze it. I don't proactively look at Bitcoin metrics but I do see the fear/greed index every time I open my CoinMarketCap app.

Here's an article that describes how you can fundamentally analyze Bitcoin.

How to Rationally Assess Bitcoin's Long Term Fundamentals

My perception of Bitcoin includes the very last paragraph in the article....

"The better you understand why Bitcoin continues to rise in value, the more comfortable you will be with its volatility. Instead of being concerned, you can enjoy the journey upward."

That's my sentiment in a nutshell. I am 100% unphased by Bitcoin volatility. I just keep up with it so I can make a lot on the always dependable frequent but unpredictable price swings.

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If you are long then you do see some value.

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I'm open-minded enough to put 1% of my net worth in it or whatever. I don't actually see any value that can be appraised other than Greater Fool.

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There have been hacks of crypto including bitcoin.

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He is talking about the network and no, the bitcoin network has never been hacked. Bugs have been found but no one has succesfully hacked the network. Hacking a central exchange where people store their coins is different, which is why many of us tell people not to store on an exchange.

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I'm open-minded enough to put 1% of my net worth in it or whatever. I don't actually see any value that can be appraised other than Greater Fool.

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This! I am doing exactly this. I went from 0% to less than 1% with some discretionary liquid funds I came into and received a bit of philosophical advice in another thread. I bought a littlle btc via an etf a couple of weeks ago. One doesn't have to sell their soul to be willing to do some speculative trading.

Time to get the parasites out of the system

I’m not a big BTC supporter but this seems like a good buying opportunity

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I’m not a big BTC supporter but this seems like a good buying opportunit

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What's your thesis for thinking this is a good time to buy ?
Just because it's 40k less than it was in October ?