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re: Anyone have insight on how high mortgage rates will go?
Posted on 9/28/22 at 4:50 pm to llfshoals
Posted on 9/28/22 at 4:50 pm to llfshoals
We will just put it this way, an 18% coupon is in the realm of probability but that just means the FOMC turned into the devil. There is no demand for an 18% coupon loan because the life of the loan would be like 3 months so the investors wouldn't make money on it (if you could hypothetically clear the regulatory burden of originating it 
)
)
1
Posted on 9/28/22 at 5:14 pm to wutangfinancial
Fed is going to hike the rates up at least 1.25% more before the end of the year.
Posted on 9/28/22 at 6:09 pm to tiggerthetooth
Posted on 9/28/22 at 7:08 pm to llfshoals
quote:
My first mortgage was 17%, I bought 4 points to get it to 13%.
I don’t think it’ll get that high again, but I don’t have to imagine what it’d be like. I lived it.
That house cost 80k at the time
We cant sustain 7% rates
And they already dropped today
Get ready for under 5 Q1
Posted on 9/28/22 at 7:21 pm to HailToTheChiz
quote:
Can I expect to have a 9% interest rate by the time this is over? Yes. At least.
Why? Like seriously, why?
Posted on 9/28/22 at 7:22 pm to MrLSU
quote:
I think 9% by December
You were wrong then and you’re wrong now. Congratulations?
Posted on 9/28/22 at 7:41 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
That house cost 80k at the time
We cant sustain 7% rates
6-7% really is a pretty normal rate outside of the past 15 years or so. Current housing prices can't sustain normal rates I guess though. The pace of the increase has been the main issue.
This post was edited on 9/28/22 at 7:44 pm
Posted on 9/28/22 at 8:57 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
That house cost 80k at the time We cant sustain 7% rates And they already dropped today Get ready for under 5 Q1
Where are you seeing this at. Is there a specific chart to watch?
Posted on 9/30/22 at 1:04 pm to slackster
quote:
You were wrong then and you’re wrong now. Congratulations?
How 30 yr fixed interest rates are around 7% right now (excellent credit) and we aren't even in October yet? My prediction was for the end of December at 9% for the average American (Fair Credit Score). The Fed is talking about pulling back further on the RMBS's it is purchasing which is shooting the rates higher and higher. Coupled with at least 2 more interest rates hikes of .75 bps each and 9% is a very conservative number.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 1:48 pm to slackster
quote:
Why? Like seriously, why?
Because the folks in charge don't know what they are doing
Posted on 9/30/22 at 3:59 pm to MrLSU
quote:
How 30 yr fixed interest rates are around 7% right now (excellent credit) and we aren't even in October yet? My prediction was for the end of December at 9% for the average American (Fair Credit Score). The Fed is talking about pulling back further on the RMBS's it is purchasing which is shooting the rates higher and higher. Coupled with at least 2 more interest rates hikes of .75 bps each and 9% is a very conservative number.
That implies the 10 yr is going to 5%+ by December and that’s just not going to happen.
Plus, your comment was about interest rates in general in that thread, not about mortgages.
This post was edited on 9/30/22 at 4:01 pm
Posted on 9/30/22 at 4:54 pm to slackster
Mortgages rates have a direct correlation to the Feds purchase of RMBS. You must have passed over that part in my post.
300k with 20% down with a 680-credit score in Louisiana is close to 8.1% as of today. 1.9% to go over the next 90 days for those folks before 9% hits them.
300k with 20% down with a 680-credit score in Louisiana is close to 8.1% as of today. 1.9% to go over the next 90 days for those folks before 9% hits them.
This post was edited on 9/30/22 at 4:59 pm
Posted on 9/30/22 at 5:23 pm to MrLSU
quote:
300k with 20% down with a 680-credit score in Louisiana is close to 8.1% as of today.
680 is not the credit score of your average homebuyer, it is 725-750 depending on who is collecting and reporting the data. Hell the average Fico score is 714... do you know anything about anything you post about?
Posted on 9/30/22 at 6:44 pm to MrLSU
I understand the correlation, and I’m saying that I simply don’t see it sniffing that level.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 8:02 pm to shoelessjoe
I have owned Walmart bonds paying 13-15% and I am only in my mid 50’s so laugh all you want that rates can’t get there after the shite this administration has pulled.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 8:08 pm to iAmBatman
quote:
could get as high as 18.5%
If it gets this high, the housing market will crash faster than a diabetic’s blood sugar after eating a candy bar.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 10:09 pm to armsdealer
CNBC. average FICO for Louisiana residents is 684
You are correct I was 4 points off. LOL
On another topic though I suspect we will see 60-70% of all non-bank lenders out of the business within the next 24 months as the investors have almost completely stopped buying loans in the secondary market right now. Avg pension fund holds their assets 5-7 years and the Bond markets believe interest rates will fall back down to the mid 5s in 36-48 months. No one wants to buy a performing loan knowing those loans will be refinanced within the next 5-7 years as they generate positive cash flow when those loans aren’t refinanced or paid off early.
You are already seeing the wholesale market drying up at a record pace and non-bank retail origination divisions being sold at fire sale prices. Lot of carnage and consolidation coming right now.
quote:
680 is not the credit score of your average homebuyer, it is 725-750 depending on who is collecting and reporting the data. Hell the average Fico score is 714... do you know anything about anything you post about
You are correct I was 4 points off. LOL
On another topic though I suspect we will see 60-70% of all non-bank lenders out of the business within the next 24 months as the investors have almost completely stopped buying loans in the secondary market right now. Avg pension fund holds their assets 5-7 years and the Bond markets believe interest rates will fall back down to the mid 5s in 36-48 months. No one wants to buy a performing loan knowing those loans will be refinanced within the next 5-7 years as they generate positive cash flow when those loans aren’t refinanced or paid off early.
You are already seeing the wholesale market drying up at a record pace and non-bank retail origination divisions being sold at fire sale prices. Lot of carnage and consolidation coming right now.
This post was edited on 9/30/22 at 10:19 pm
Posted on 10/1/22 at 8:46 am to MrLSU
quote:
300k with 20% down with a 680-credit score in Louisiana is close to 8.1% as of today. 1.9% to go over the next 90 days for those folks before 9% hits them.
no its not 
Posted on 10/1/22 at 11:34 am to shoelessjoe
No way rates get to 70s/80s levels.
The government has too much debt to service for things to get too high.
The government has too much debt to service for things to get too high.
Posted on 10/1/22 at 12:59 pm to MrLSU
Nobody on the street is buying an MBS at 9% coupon while everything around them is collapsing stop being ridiculous.
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