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re: Anyone else nervous about this rally?

Posted on 5/9/20 at 12:33 am to
Posted by Asharad
Tiamat
Member since Dec 2010
6341 posts
Posted on 5/9/20 at 12:33 am to
It's not a rally, it's a trap.
Posted by ulsaint
Member since Oct 2007
2460 posts
Posted on 5/9/20 at 8:44 am to
Stock pickers never learn. Index will beat your stock picks 99 percent of the time.

I will say if you’re going stocks FANG plus MSFT is probably the best.

But for years people on here were in love with Exxon and MO. All stocks are great until
They aren’t.
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
48634 posts
Posted on 5/9/20 at 8:50 am to
quote:

Stock pickers never learn. Index will beat your stock picks 99 percent of the time.

well maybe not 99% but this is undoubtedly true.
nobody is saying anyone should be all in on index funds but the proof is in the returns. I read somewhere the other day that 4 stocks are like 25% of the S&P. yes you could just buy those 4 but that’s a shite ton of risk
Posted by ColoradoAg03
Denver, CO
Member since Oct 2012
6612 posts
Posted on 5/9/20 at 9:14 am to
I’ve got FANG. Might buy more in a couple weeks when oil price dips, June contracts expire, and storage numbers hit highs. PXD another strong upstream o&g play as well.
Posted by LSU Tigershark
10,000 posts
Member since Dec 2007
10568 posts
Posted on 5/9/20 at 9:52 am to
quote:

I’ve got FANG. Might buy more in a couple weeks when oil price dips, June contracts expire, and storage numbers hit highs. PXD another strong upstream o&g play as well.


He's not talking about Diamondback Energy. He's talking about Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google
Posted by SloaneRanger
Upper Hurstville
Member since Jan 2014
13743 posts
Posted on 5/9/20 at 10:07 am to
quote:

I’ve got FANG. Might buy more in a couple weeks when oil price dips, June contracts expire, and storage numbers hit highs. PXD another strong upstream o&g play as well.


He's not talking about Diamondback Energy. He's talking about Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google




I hope ColoradoAg was just making a funny.
Posted by VanJoe
Member since May 2020
34 posts
Posted on 5/9/20 at 10:30 am to
Stock market is keeping up with the unemployment
Posted by Tigers4life
The great US of A
Member since May 2004
1976 posts
Posted on 5/9/20 at 10:41 am to
quote:

Stock pickers never learn. Index will beat your stock picks 99 percent of the time.


The average SP500 returns are about 10-12% annually. An experienced stock picker will beat that in a couple of months.
Posted by wutangfinancial
Treasure Valley
Member since Sep 2015
11958 posts
Posted on 5/9/20 at 11:10 am to
quote:

passive investing is still the best way to ensure regular returns for the vast majority of people


I hope you understand the cons in passive indexing. Regular returns don't mean a whole lot when everybody is passive and everybody is selling. The value in those products are only as good as the liquidity when you are selling no matter what kind of nominal returns your computer screen spits out.
Posted by LSU Tigershark
10,000 posts
Member since Dec 2007
10568 posts
Posted on 5/9/20 at 2:47 pm to
quote:

I hope ColoradoAg was just making a funny


If not, FANG has been doing great, too
Posted by thatguy777
br
Member since Feb 2007
2506 posts
Posted on 5/9/20 at 3:26 pm to
quote:

The average SP500 returns are about 10-12% annually. An experienced stock picker will beat that in a couple of months.


Ppl hate to hear this but this really is true. You just have to put in the work and time it won’t happen overnight either. It’s just like anything else in life. If you half arse it and don’t want to put the work in then you’ll be better off with a s and p index
This post was edited on 5/9/20 at 3:28 pm
Posted by prostyleoffensetime
Mississippi
Member since Aug 2009
12504 posts
Posted on 5/9/20 at 5:19 pm to
quote:

You just have to put in the work and time it won’t happen overnight either. It’s just like anything else in life. If you half arse it and don’t want to put the work in then you’ll be better off with a s and p index


Yeah, so any tips or links to get a better understanding?

I mean, I have a little SPY and QQQ, and started buying MSFT, AAPL, MPC, XOM, V, and DIS, in the last half of March/early April and realize I’ve pretty much been along for the ride on those while I’ve bought T, JPM, BA, and DAL the last three weeks or so and those have been lackluster for the most part.

What I’m looking for is info on how and where to study when to buy, when to sell, create price targets, analyze these companies’ balance sheets, ratios, etc. I can google all day, but would love some tips on the more reputable websites to visit to find out how to analyze this type stuff.
Posted by thatguy777
br
Member since Feb 2007
2506 posts
Posted on 5/9/20 at 6:41 pm to
That’s a loaded question haha. I’ll edit my post tomorrow. Enjoying my evening
Posted by prostyleoffensetime
Mississippi
Member since Aug 2009
12504 posts
Posted on 5/9/20 at 6:47 pm to
Posted by ulsaint
Member since Oct 2007
2460 posts
Posted on 5/9/20 at 11:26 pm to
Let’s make a bet. $100. Starting Monday. I’ll take qqq vs any 10 stocks you want to pick for the next three months.

Posted by ColoradoAg03
Denver, CO
Member since Oct 2012
6612 posts
Posted on 5/10/20 at 1:43 am to
quote:

Let’s make a bet. $100. Starting Monday. I’ll take qqq vs any 10 stocks you want to pick for the next three months.


A couple of questions about this bet you're offering, for clarity.

- Does the betting competitor have to pick an ETF, or does it have to be 10 individual stock tickers of the competitors choice, or even just 1 single company ticker to go up against QQQ in a 3 month span?

- Is there a cash investment minimum or maximum into chosen stock? Shouldn't be in my opinion, since the bet is on performance.

- Is the bet going to be based off session close price Monday 5/12/20 and Wednesday 8/12/20?



This post was edited on 5/10/20 at 6:07 am
Posted by ColoradoAg03
Denver, CO
Member since Oct 2012
6612 posts
Posted on 5/10/20 at 1:50 am to
quote:

I’ve got FANG. Might buy more in a couple weeks when oil price dips, June contracts expire, and storage numbers hit highs. PXD another strong upstream o&g play as well.


He's not talking about Diamondback Energy. He's talking about Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google


Haha. Sloane and Tigershark, I have to admit, I wasn't aware of the multi-company acronym of FANG. I was indeed speaking of Diamondback, which is doing very well for me since I entered that position in late March. So yes, I whiffed on that conversation
This post was edited on 5/10/20 at 1:59 am
Posted by Tigers4life
The great US of A
Member since May 2004
1976 posts
Posted on 5/10/20 at 4:42 am to
quote:

Let’s make a bet. $100. Starting Monday. I’ll take qqq vs any 10 stocks you want to pick for the next three months



When I said a couple of months to beat the index returns....I was being conservative. It's like thatguy777 posted above.....it takes time but is very achievable if you put in the work and it doesn't matter if the market or stocks are going up or down. As far as your bet...you might win if you know how to trade qqq in both directions but to just buy long and hold......it wouldn't be close unless it went on a tear higher. I'm not assuming anything either because I've seen the consistent results over extended periods of time.
Posted by rotrain
Member since Feb 2013
390 posts
Posted on 5/10/20 at 7:56 am to
quote:

The average SP500 returns are about 10-12% annually. An experienced stock picker will beat that in a couple of months


Very long term return is 10%. Are you telling me an experienced stock picker can generate 60-80% annual returns consistently? Dam, Ishoulda gone to Experienced Stock Picker School.
Posted by RoyalWe
Louisiana
Member since Mar 2018
4871 posts
Posted on 5/10/20 at 8:14 am to
quote:

What I’m looking for is info on how and where to study when to buy, when to sell, create price targets, analyze these companies’ balance sheets, ratios, etc. I can google all day, but would love some tips on the more reputable websites to visit to find out how to analyze this type stuff.
The time you're suggesting investing in these things isn't worth the relative payout to simpler approaches unless you're just doing it for personal enjoyment/entertainment. I've been an advocate of value cost averaging with quarterly review against a growth target to inform a 'buy' or 'sell' signal. Can get pretty exciting with leveraged ETFs. I usually get down-voted at this point, but I'd put my performance up against anyone else.

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