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Message
re: Anyone buying MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR)?
Posted on 6/27/26 at 9:00 am to UltimaParadox
Posted on 6/27/26 at 9:00 am to UltimaParadox
Yea, youre right, thats why I tacked on "in theory". They would tank the btc market if they started selling heavily.
1
Posted on 6/27/26 at 9:39 am to Pendulum
I saw a defense of the scheme the other day that said “they are rebuilding their USD cash reserves to fund the dividend”…as though “rebuilding” cash means anything other than “selling something”. Where is this money coming from? They don’t produce any product or service they can sell
It’s madness
It’s madness
Posted on 6/27/26 at 12:37 pm to cgrand
quote:
saw a defense of the scheme the other day that said “they are rebuilding their USD cash reserves to fund the dividend”…as though “rebuilding” cash means anything other than “selling something”. Where is this money coming from? They don’t produce any product or service they can sell
I thought they produced software and AI tools? Not to say that the company is doing well or anything.
I think this bitcoin dip stays around for a while. I think we hit at least low 50s for a while. So MSTR may be hurting for a while.
This post was edited on 6/27/26 at 12:38 pm
Posted on 6/27/26 at 12:46 pm to GeauxTigers123
quote:Yes, that business is a tiny portion (basically a rounding error) of the market cap.
I thought they produced software and AI tools? Not to say that the company is doing well or anything.
Posted on 6/27/26 at 12:47 pm to cgrand
quote:Yes, they have debt.
at current prices MSTR is technically selling at a discount to their BTC holdings,
Posted on 6/27/26 at 6:56 pm to Big Scrub TX
ironically Mosaic is well regarded as an enterprise software and has highly positive reviews…by itself its a $2B business. I’ve wondered though how MSTR keeps their focus on that aspect of the business. I guess it’s kept completely separate physically and philosophically
the whole thing is just weird
the whole thing is just weird
Posted on 6/28/26 at 1:07 am to cgrand
quote:
the whole thing is just weird
It's because it's all a facade predicated on digital unicorn farts
Posted on 6/28/26 at 2:43 pm to cgrand
quote:
the whole thing is just weird
The math has become comical. They seem to define mnav by simply dividing the BTC holdings by the 360 million outstanding A/B shares to get their $50 billion in assets and $30billion market cap. But, they ignore the 150 million outstanding c/d/f/g/k shares. I guess that’s what’s considered debt. Then they have $150 million/mo in operational costs.
Using that formula, this should be a steal in six months when the mnav inevitably dips below .5.
Posted on 6/29/26 at 9:53 am to lsuconnman
They now have 17.5 months of dividend payments in cash and changed the guidance to institute that cash can only be used for the dividends, not retiring converts. Board policy has been updated to require a mandatory minimum 12 months of dividend cash at all times.
I don't foresee BTC staying depressed that long so they could end up squeaking out of this
I don't foresee BTC staying depressed that long so they could end up squeaking out of this
Posted on 6/29/26 at 10:19 am to TigerTatorTots
quote:what’s plan B if it does, or goes much lower? Clearly retail BTC mania is over at the moment with many bag holders. What would be the catalyst for a BTC run at this point?
I don't foresee BTC staying depressed that long so they could end up squeaking out of this
I saw elsewhere that more than half of all circulating BTC is underwater
Posted on 6/29/26 at 10:51 am to cgrand
quote:This metric has marked the bottom in each of the last 3 cycles
I saw elsewhere that more than half of all circulating BTC is underwater
Posted on 6/29/26 at 11:23 am to TigerTatorTots
quote:
I don't foresee BTC staying depressed that long
Posted on 6/29/26 at 11:31 am to Big Scrub TX
You think we are going to be around these levels or lower for the next 17 months?
Posted on 6/29/26 at 12:06 pm to TigerTatorTots
genuinely curious
what leads you to believe that past history in the BTC chart indicates future improvement? The thesis of either/both of payment adoption and store of value appears to be broken, to me anyway.
Adoption of BTC for payment hasn’t happened, and purchase of BTC as a hedge hasn’t happened. It appears that purchase of BTC only happens at scale when the prevailing opinion is the price is going to go up. But nobody ever says convincingly (and with evidence) WHY it will go up. Scarcity can’t do it alone
what leads you to believe that past history in the BTC chart indicates future improvement? The thesis of either/both of payment adoption and store of value appears to be broken, to me anyway.
Adoption of BTC for payment hasn’t happened, and purchase of BTC as a hedge hasn’t happened. It appears that purchase of BTC only happens at scale when the prevailing opinion is the price is going to go up. But nobody ever says convincingly (and with evidence) WHY it will go up. Scarcity can’t do it alone
Posted on 6/29/26 at 12:35 pm to cgrand
I just simply don't think "this time is different"
Ppl will buy it as an investment, a hold, a speculative trade ect. Companies will add it on their balance sheet. It will continue to operate unburdened by whatever the current news is saying its going to die. Many will continue to think its worthless and should be worth zero - those people should just focus on other things.
Ppl will buy it as an investment, a hold, a speculative trade ect. Companies will add it on their balance sheet. It will continue to operate unburdened by whatever the current news is saying its going to die. Many will continue to think its worthless and should be worth zero - those people should just focus on other things.
Posted on 6/29/26 at 3:33 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:I'm not arrogant enough to think such predictions are even possible.
You think we are going to be around these levels or lower for the next 17 months?
Posted on 6/29/26 at 3:34 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:None of that means the price has to go up.
Ppl will buy it as an investment, a hold, a speculative trade ect. Companies will add it on their balance sheet. It will continue to operate unburdened by whatever the current news is saying its going to die
It's the fallacy of the "index inclusion" argument people like to make about stocks. Being added to an index DOES NOT mean the stock is likely to go up.
Posted on 6/29/26 at 3:48 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:right. I don’t think it’s going to zero or going away entirely that would be dumb. But why is the price going to go up? Nobody has an answer to that that I’ve seen that is borne out by evidence. It’s a currency not a commodity or a business. There very little reason to believe that once it settles into its sustainable price range that it will increase in value over time
None of that means the price has to go up.
Posted on 6/29/26 at 4:56 pm to cgrand
quote:They'll say it's because there is only a limited supply of them. But who cares? Limited supply of anything doesn't mean price to infinity.
right. I don’t think it’s going to zero or going away entirely that would be dumb. But why is the price going to go up? Nobody has an answer to that that I’ve seen that is borne out by evidence. It’s a currency not a commodity or a business. There very little reason to believe that once it settles into its sustainable price range that it will increase in value over time
As I've said before: we are living through both an inflationary period AND a period of several sustained conflicts for which one might have predicted the populaces of those countries could have use for some kind of crypto. And yet...we're down 50%+ from the high.
Nobody seems to want to explain how any of that is internally consistent with the stated use cases for bitcoin.
And on top of that - blockchain is essentially a bust as a technology. It's been with us basically 20 years and isn't used for anything...except speculating on these coins. the 2015-2019ish VC vintage is literally the worst performing of all time, with a huge focus on blockchain. The median blockchain startup is down like 90% or something like that.
And yet, we have people on here just confidently predicting prices.
MSTR itself is down 75% from it's high. Does anyone, anywhere that was pumping this crap feel chastened at ALL?
This post was edited on 6/29/26 at 5:13 pm
Posted on 6/29/26 at 7:20 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. unveiled a sweeping overhaul of the financing model underpinning its Bitcoin strategy, giving itself broader powers to sell the cryptocurrency, buy back securities and preserve liquidity as it adapts to mounting pressure on the structure that fueled years of aggressive accumulation.
The company said it may sell up to $1.25 billion of Bitcoin to bolster its cash reserve and established two repurchase programs of up to $1 billion each for common and preferred shares. Strategy also said it would become more disciplined about issuing common equity, particularly when its shares trade at or near the value of its Bitcoin holdings. The common shares jumped around 13%, the biggest one-day increase in about four months.
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